Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Storm is nothing spectacular but good enough for a powder day Monday or Tuesday

And about the best thing that can happen when a 6-foot base is topped with 2 inches of crust is the addition of more powder. We will have to wait until Monday for such medicine but it looks like it will arrive and be quite welcome to the March Madness crowd. This storm in many ways is a classic late-winter early-spring type of event. It also is like the lawn mower that woudn't start on the first try. The upper level energy has been slow to position itself as the storms catylist. A low pressure center will actually try and form Saturday evening along the Carolina coast but will never take flight (No pun intended at the Wright Brothers who actually did take flight on the Carolina coast). Instead, a slow moving and moist storm system currently churning away in the deep south will inhale this infusion of jet energy and produce some big time snow across the southern Appalachians and perhaps as far south as Atlanta. The storm will then gather some strength offshore and head north-northeast.

Even as we get into the late innings of forecasting this sucker, some critical items concerning the storms intensity and track remain uncertain. We do have some model agreement that the storm will track just off the east coast and pass just east of Cape Cod. In addition, models seem to agree that the storm, although strong enough to produce a widespread accumulating snow, will never deepen to sub-1000 mb and will thus fall short of the extroadinary. None of this is completely etched in stone however and a stronger storm or one that tracks a bit closer to the Atlantic Coast could change the outcome.

Storm Details
As it stands now, snow will arrive Monday morning and continue at a light to moderate rate through the evening. Even if the storm fails to attain "super" strength it remains flanked by a strong area of high pressure and the gradient will be enough to produce a blustery north wind throughout the afternoon as temperatures hold steady in the teens. Snow accumulations will be within a few inches of "6" I am guessing. Tuesday is the best bet for the powder day although Monday could finish very strong depending on when the snow begins.

First Week in March
Blustery and cold conditions will be with us through Tuesday and the sub-freezing cold will continue through the day Wednesday although the wind should subside a bit. Thursday's temps which a few days ago looked "balmy" now appear to be seasonable with readings maybe approaching the freezing mark as another west to east moving system approaches. By this point much of the country will see a move toward milder temperatures but the NAO will make another big push into negative territory and this will prevent spring-like warmth from making the full intrusion into Vermont. Instead it looks as if the region is on the fence and could see a variety of winter weather or a snow event some time around Friday of next week.

Long Range
The remainder of the first half of March is indicated to have a similar theme as the one discussed in the above paragraph. The warmth in the plains may become more exaggerated and above normal temperatures are likely across a big part of the center third of the nation. Most of the unsettled weather, meanwhile, will be focused on the west. Some of the warmth will make a few tries at reaching Vermont and may occasionally get there but should get beat back by seasonable temps and a few of the smaller type winter weather events.

1 comment:

quirky said...

I like to read your blog, very insightful into the weather and going's on a world away(or so it seems) The weather folks down here inflatlander country dont care to cover what is happening a few hundred miles to the north. The only group in my area that covers the north is NECN Tim Kelly and mattnoyes.net.

Keep up the good work.