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Thursday, February 12, 2009

February 19th has everyone's attention

And it seems like even the most casual followers of the blog have been sending me a few cents about next week and what could be. Thanks to Art Hendrix who was nice enough to comment about the present and a few inches of snow which has fallen at MRG on the backside of what turned into a mostly rain event. These few inches will help as will some colder weather. Storm #1 however will not provide any assistance. This is a system that will be a victim of this monstrocity of a blocking pattern and as it spreads precipitation across the midwest and takes aim at the northeast, it will get forced southward taking much of its energy and moisture with it. A negative NAO such as this with blocking such as this can have some very positive uses as well and as predicted we will earn our dividends with a little patience.

Our Feb 19th "hypothetical storm" will have some tranquility in the foreground. Flurries and snow showers on Friday and Saturday will amount to a light and very fluffy accumulation but I think the depth of instability is not deep enough for a big terrain induced accumulation. These flurries may continue off and on with some intermittent sunshine both on Sunday and Monday. We will also see a brisk wind with temperatures in the 20's during the days and 5-10 at night. Tuesday may be a bit colder but with less wind.

Feb 19th - The ingredients that make a storm
As the cold weather stabilizes over interior New England the forces of mother nature will conspire and do so very early in the ball game. Pacific energy from the rockies will combine forces with jet energy diving south from Alberta. This combination will occur in the plains and thus the intensification of this storm system will occur early and cause heavy snow and rain across the Midwest. This storm has a lot of people talking as a result since major metropolitan areas from the Midwest to the Northeast has the potential to see an impact. Sponsors that were nice enough to support The Weather Channel are licking their chops as big ratings are sure to come.

Us skiers have other thoughts however like images of this -->

For those old enough to remember, the 100 hour New England snowstorm of late February 1969 was a skiers paradise with upwards of 6 feet of snow in parts of the Northeast Kingdom or at least according to the folklore. It came on the heels of the famous Lindsay snowstorm which got its name from the NYC politician it claimed (not literally but politically if you get my meaning).

No time for a history lesson however since we need to lay out what we know. The storm will already be quite a force as it approaches late on Wednesday. As this already well established low pressure center interacts with the forces of the Atlantic Ocean, the intensification will continue and blizzard-like conditions are very possible over portions of New England Thursday and into Friday. Heavy snow across interior New England and the spine of the Green Mountains to be specific and MRG to be more specific seems to be a predictable by-product but lets not give this storm an early KISS OF DEATH. Thursday and Friday could be Valentine's day 2007 re-incarnated or it could be something less or it could be not at all.

In all honesty and with all the kidding aside, the storm next week is probably going to be a bit more than "not at all". Its just a matter of details and those still need to be ironed out and we will do so in the coming days. There is another storm also in its wake that will need a an injection of clarity. This storm may is showing up a bit later than it did a few days ago but February 19th is hogging a lot of press and its impact may span more days than just Feb 19.

Enjoy the presidents day holiday fellow MRGers and updates will continue to flow !!

1 comment:

arthendrix said...

Thanks for looking into the crystal ball and finding the desired results. Hopefully no one will jinx this one. I have to say though, according to Chaos theory, we're due for a whopper!