Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

MRG can bask in victory for a few days but more turbulent pattern is ahead

Thanks to everyone for the compliments over the past few days (encouraged of course by Eric at MRG) . The weather gods have been a bit kinder to me this year than they were in 2008 but errors have still been made and Sunday's storm actually came together a bit slower than expected and thus accumulations were a bit less than expected with more snowfall in Maine than in Vermont. So we settled for the 50-60 inches in 5 days and a few days remain to enjoy the fruits of our good fortune because New England weather can giveth and can taketh away and can do so both quickly and efficiently.

Snowmelt over the next two weeks will actually occur slowly and much of the base will get retained well into March. But starting this week we will have to fight off the adverse effects of teleconnections which have now turned against us, in some cases decisively so. Blustery conditions will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night and it will remain chilly. Wednesday however will be be sunny and calm and that will make it feel substantially warmer. Wednesday will also be the last full day where snow conditions stay on the powdery side. Thursday will be a good day to ski but the snow will soften as temperatures eclipse the freezing mark under a mix of warm late-February sun and some increasing clouds.

The pattern has now evolved into one where the active weather is situated in the Pacific Northwest. With the trough situated in western North America and the protection of the negative NAO now gone we will have to deal with ice and rain perhaps on multiple occasions. There are a few individual skirmishes where we can score a victory but it is not likely to come late Thursday into Friday. This is a storm which will barrel into the Great Lakes from the central Rockies and proceed northeastward deep into Ontario and Quebec. Cold weather, and plenty of it will be situated on the western side of this storm and the cold across New England will erode very quickly Thursday night. Precipitation may begin as some sleet or freezing rain but will eventually turn to plain rain Friday as temperatures climb toward the 40's. Colder weather and a minimal amount of snow will displace the mild weather and rain for the weekend but big accumulations should not be expected.

Early part of next week has promise but negative turning PNA spells trouble
The first week in March will be a turbulent one and will live up to the traditions established by many other terbulent New England March's of years past. The period Sunday through Wednesday will be wintry as the return to colder weather this upcoming weekend will get reenforced early next week by a temporary re-positioning of the ridge/trough set up in North America. In March, you can open a small window of opportunity for winter weather and can get some big powder. So yes, an east coast storm is possible and has been indicated in a few of the cycle of recent model runs but is far from a certainty and is still more on the unlikely side. At the very least we should see snow from a "clipper" or a "mauler", or "bomber" and this will provide at least one powder day. The later part of next week however is likely to see a re-emergence of warmer temperatures and perhaps another rain event. This again being the result of the adverse teleconnections; in this case, a PNA which will turn very negative by March 4th or 6th and stay that way for a period of at least 5 days.

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