Yesterday afternoon's European model run again allowed a major storm to "bomb" along the east coast and subsequently get caught under the high latitude block in eastern Quebec, dumping major snow's across Vermont and the rest of interior New England. The several pieces of model data released since yesterday afternoon have all suggested otherwise, keeping the storm well off shore and keeping the region very dry with the exception of a few flurries over the high country. This system is worth keeping an eye on but I am about ready to write this weather system off at this point. Unlike last weekend we will avoid the rain and continue to collect a dividend payment from a weather pattern fully energized by a very negative Arctic Oscillation. Two blocking mechanisms in this pattern are more or less conducting the orchestra; one I mentioned over eastern Canada and another over the Bering Sea. The Eastern Canada block has been so remarkable in its ability to draw incredibly mild temperatures deep into northern Canada. Temperatures on the east side of the Hudson Bay were all above freezing Thursday and Friday and the ice which had been expanding, actually receded a touch. The Hudson Bay has been slow to freeze this year and although Northern Hemisphere snow cover remains above average, open water on the Hudson Bay is not a particularly positive feedback for allowing cold to pool in eastern Canada and ultimately descend into northern New England. We will be alright for the time being but the aforementioned observation could come back to haunt us later.
Our next realistic chance for snow comes during the middle of the upcoming week. Again it will the blocked pattern which yieid another serving of mid-week powder. One weather system will move west to east rather quickly Tuesday and manage easily avoid the region passing well to the south. In the meantime energy in the North Atlantic will get sucked back under the block in eastern Canada and deposit some moisture across MRG and the rest of the Vermont high country during the middle of the week in the form of snow. Results similar to what the mountain saw the last few days are completely in the realm of reasonable expectations and a repeat of this should be enough to get the season started finally.
Another system should depart the mountain west just prior to Christmas and cross the country rather quickly. It will be difficult for these types of systems to make enough of a northward push to produce a major snowfall at MRG simply because the block in eastern Canada will exert some "downward" pressure on all such weather systems. Still, the pattern remains very favorable with a stretch of below freezing temperatures and at least some new snow for this week and a negative AO which should ensure more of the same (at the very least) for Christmas week. Even if we don't get a big storm, we can do a lot worse and have in the past had some horrendous holiday periods. Enjoy the weekend and don't just think snow, think "additional snow"!!!