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Sunday, December 19, 2010

Midweek snow will help but nothing spreads more holiday cheer than a Christmas storm, but we can only hope at this point

No major update is really required for the upcoming week but we do have a huge holiday week approaching and the last post didn't dive that period in too much depth. For the third consecutive week, we expect moisture from the a storm well out over the Atlantic to get sucked back into the high country of interior New England and deposit some snow for MRG and other places. As mentioned, it all results from the upper air block across eastern Canada which is more or less trapping this moisture over the Canadian Maritimes and allowing it to rotate back and around so it can be put to good use. As of this morning, the snow, which should fall in the late Tuesday to early Thursday time frame will be in the 4-8 inch range and although weather conditions might be a little windy, temperatures will be seasonable with 20's for high's and single digits or teens for lows.

Most of Thursday into Christmas Eve will be dry but the talk of the week will be a significant weather system that is expected to exit the central Rockies on the 23rd and progress west to east across the country on the 24th. Given its timing, the storm will garner some huge news headlines as it promises to be a major travel head-ache in a period where many like to travel. In addition the storm has the potential to impact a huge swath of metropolitan areas from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic to northeast. This potential weather-maker has been very visible on a succession of model runs since last Friday but the consensus indication is that this storm will move off over the Atlantic before dealing MRG any huge powder. The upper air "block" over eastern Canada will largely be to blame if such an outcome occurs since although it can provide some needed protection from the ice and rain it can also encourage systems to track well to our south in a February 2010 style. Still it will not take much for our expectations to change. A slight shift in the track northward or an earlier northward turn would allow this storm to bring its moisture our way. Or, we could see this storm, like the previous three, get tangled in the blocking as it tracks off shore thus allowing its moisture to again rotate back in our direction.

Storm or no storm, cold and blustery weather will make a return in the days after Christmas and I am hoping some additional snows accompany this transition. I am becoming more and more confident that the threat of ice or rain in the period between the 24th and New Years Day is very low but after Christmas Day there are no real indications of a major weather system of any kind. We will more or less have to rely on weaker disturbances or passing clipper systems for additional powder. Overall though you can't complain since December skiing in New England has in some years been declared a total loss and is certainly not such this year.

1 comment:

Sick Bird Rider said...

This works for me! Good driving on the 24th, good skiing between Christmas and New Year's.