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Thursday, December 9, 2010

Storm Sunday/Monday to bring rain than snow....

but the pattern will be generally favorable through the time of the winter solstice and this sets the mountain up rather well for the holidays. The storm in question is a "BC bruiser", and a rather innocent looking one it will be as it crosses into southern Alberta and dives southeastward from there. The storm will get turbo charged by a huge injection of polar jet energy which will more or less bomb the system out before it even interacts with the Atlantic Ocean. This is a bit problematic for interior New England since surface pressure's associated with this weather system will be so low before it even crosses the Appalachian Mountains thus making it difficult for a successful transformation off the Atlantic Coast. Many storms that track in this fashion lay flatter and are initially weaker but this one will be quite strong and will be standing quite upright and thus envelop warm Atlantic Ocean marine air across New England. The result will be a widespread rain event across southern New England and a mixed precipitation to some rain type of event across northern Vermont. Since the mountain has yet to open, it isn't the end of the world but it be good if we can keep dewpoints close to the freezing mark and keep the wind down. Both are huge factors relating to the rate at which snow can melt. The former appears better than the latter as I would guess dewpoints remain in the 30's but the wind gets whipped up pretty good by early Monday morning.

This storm, like the prior event will also get caught underneath the mammoth block over Greenland and as temperatures rapidly turn colder late Monday, moisture from the trapped system will rotate back over New England and deposit some additional snows across the region between late Monday and Wednesday. Snow totals in this period could approach a foot but its a bit early to tell for sure. With a solidified base and some additional snow next week, the mountain could be in good enough shape for an opening on MRG's target date but much will depend on the damages done Monday morning.

Teleconnection indices remain rather favorable as I mentioned above let mostly by the Arctic Oscillation which will remain very negative. The block over Greenland will migrate into eastern Canada a bit and will limit the region's access to any fresh supply of cold air after Tuesday even though it is not expected to be extremely mild (just above normal). The prevailing storm track however should be good enough to allow for the chances for additional snow from another storm toward the weekend of the 18th and 19th. More on that in a subsequent post Sunday.

2 comments:

chip said...

Your blog has an active following among central Vermont's nordic skiers, who, like MRG skiers, depend on natural snow.... thanks
chip

Jonathan said...

I thought "BC Bomber" was the nickname for this kind of a storm; this one certainly sounds like it's going to bomb!