Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Overnight models keep monster storm within 100 miles of the Cape

And the suddenly very inconsistent European model nearly had the storm on top of the Cape by Monday morning which was nearly a 200 mile shift west from its prior run. Such a scenario paints a snowier picture for Vermont Monday although the heaviest snow would still be to our south and east. The inability of our collective assortment of models to demonstrate any consistency or agreement from run to run underscores how tenuous any forecast is at this point. Much of the uncertainty at this point surrounds the rate at which the storm will deepen once it moves off shore. The lastest information is suggesting a much more rapid deepening, capable of resulting in blizzard like conditions for much of southern New England along with a paralyzing snow. A deepening of this magnitude would allow the storm to resist the eastward push it will be receiving progressing pattern.

NWS out of Burlington has tried to convey the snow risk by suggesting a 50-60 percent chance of snow for the region and using the headline "accumulating snow possible". This isn't a bad way to handle a rather tricky situation. We can certainly still take a big swing and a miss in regards to this system but at least we have a real fighting chance for a 6-12 inch event. Hypothetically, the snow would begin early Monday morning, several hours before first tracks time and persist through much of the day. We can certainly hope but expectations should be kept in check, it can go either way.

1 comment:

arthendrix said...

Seems like blizzard conditions have already started with strongs winds from the north down the champlain valley and snow in bands approaching from the south east on the radar. We could be in for a whopper!