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Friday, March 11, 2011

Powder Sunday in an otherwise unexciting week

A decaying area of moisture associated with a eastward advancing clipper system will help the region out a bit late Saturday into Sunday. It had looking a day or two ago as the energy and moisture with this system might move to our south but we will see some fluffy snow beginning Saturday evening and persisting through early Sunday. The snow may begin as rain in low lying areas and could fall as a wet snow even at the base. Colder temperatures on Sunday however should be able to change most of the snow to a powdery consistency by Sunday morning with a elevation sensitive 2-5 inches expected by the middle of the day.

The snow early Sunday is the last we can expect for at least a week or so. The cold weather on Sunday will last through Monday and into early Tuesday before temperatures make another surge into the middle and high 30's Tuesday afternoon. This will set the state for a fairly mild end of the week. Some showers are possible Wednesday but the front associated with any rain is a weak one and is not expected to bring any arctic cold south. This means temperatures are likely to reach the 40's Wednesday and Thursday and could best 50 Friday or Saturday. In short, it will be spring conditions late in the week and choosing days and times when it's not raining. The rain should not be a major concern however since whatever falls Wednesday will be light and although the rain threat moves up again next weekend, models are not indicating a significant storm.

The blocking continues to look more favorable after the 20th of the month although the ensembles at face value do not show a corresponding "cold" signal. At the very least however the blocking should allow for a greater variety of weather at least one good storm toward the end of the month.


Peter said...

So does this mean that the "long awaited switch in our teleconnection indices," mentioned in your previous posting, is not looking as promising/positive for a return to a period of more consistently winter-like conditions, as opposed to the seesaw-like weather pattern of the past 2 to 4 weeks?

Also, is it just me, or, excluding Sunday/Monday's huge snowfall, has the frequency and magnitude of snowfall/storms during the month of March (at least the past 3 years, i.e., 2009, 2010, and 2011 thus far + your forecast for the next week) seemed to decline significantly? I can remember from my years in high school/college in the 1990s/early 2000s March having the most snowstorms and the highest monthly snowfall total of the entire winter... Might this be just an anomaly or is this somehow related to more-permanent climate change caused by global warming or other phenomena?

Thanks and keep up the good work...

Habib Ahmed Qureshi said...
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