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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Winter-like cold grips Vermont for the next week

The bulk of precipitation Thursday will remain to the regions south. The American GFS runs up through this morning had shown the formation of a deformation area across the Vermont and New Hampshire high country which in effect would produce a steady snow Thursday night and Friday. Some indication of this remains although at a lesser intensity. The higher resolution short term models also have some indications of snow although it would be of the lighter 1-3 inch variety. We won't be able to rely too much on low level instability to produce snow since there isn't much too speak of through the end of the week. Any snow would have to be "mechanically" induced through physically lifting moist layers of the atmosphere, a job typically done by a warm or cold front.

As for the weekend, the weather itself looks primarily dry but temperatures will be very wintry ranging from single numbers in the morning to near 30 in the afternoon. It may be balmy compared to January but 15 degrees below average is statistically significant for the season and will certainly prevent any material erosion of the existing base. Saturday should be the day to feature more sun (mixed with clouds and occasional snow flurries) and some gusty winds. Sunday may feature more in the way of clouds along with less winds. Sunday will also feature another late March snow event which is not expected to have any impact on MRG or northern Vermont (precipitation should again stay to our south) although we will keep an eye on it.

We have a better chance for weather during the middle part of next week. It would be the last system to potentially have an snowy impact on us during the resurgence of cold. We had successive runs of the European model show a very favorable track and some significant snows for us Tuesday and Wednesday. The cycle of model runs released close to noon today showed a track well to our south. This last system is our best chance and perhaps our last chance for big powder of the season as it is expected to warm to above freezing levels by the end of the week (April 1) followed by a little spring rain during the first weekend in April.

1 comment:

Mark said...

Hi Josh, First of all, thanks so much for your weather input this season, it has been much appreciated. Just wondering if you had any comment on the storm brewing for tonight into tomorrow (3/31 - 4/1 2011). NWS says 8-10" in valleys and more in higher elevations. What about MRG specific? Thanks so much, I am hoping to get there tomorrow to enjoy first-hand!