Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Could be another rough upcoming week but light at the end of the tunnel still looks bright

My Alma Mater, Penn State, university has endured a rough couple months but they just took a big risk by hiring Pats OC Bill O'Brien to be the next HC. I have no idea who this guy is except that he shouted at Tom Brady a few weeks ago (which i find rather impressive actually). Much of Penn State nation is in total meltdown mode by the way and ready to jump off a cliff (much bigger than the one in "the garden" btw). Any Pats fans have opinions about this guy ? I would love to hear it, email or otherwise.

Anyway, the possibility for a significant snows early next week has fallen to pieces. Unless things change dramatically, the jet impulse that could have been the catalyst Sunday will be a dud and incapable of manufacturing an east coast storm as we had hoped. Much of the jet energy early next week will get initially trapped over Texas giving the jet stream an "L Shape" configuration across eastern North America. We could handle this but there isn't a lot of southern branch jet energy this year with the prevailing La Nina to move this system along. It will gather moisture over the Gulf as the limited cold air across the Northeast erodes. By the middle of the week it will begin its northeastward progress as potent polar jet energy picks it up.

This is a big precipitation producer undoubtedly and Mad River Glen is going a substantial chunk of it late in the week. There are a couple of different ways this could evolve but it appears for now that we will not have the cold air in place for precipitation to start as snow and more likely rain. Depending on the track of the storm, the way in which it transitions to an east coast low pressure area, and particularly how the incoming cold weather becomes enveloped in this storm will determine our eventual fate. Most indications indicate that that the cold weather will arrive on the back side of the developed storm giving us a chance for wrap-around and terrain induced snows by next weekend. We would do better however if some of this cold could work its way in via the Quebec route and involve itself a bit with the moist conveyor of this storm.

The AO is still on target to make the critical switch around January 12th which will allow the cold weather to be more sustainable and significant snow to be much more likely. Still doesn't look like a home run pattern but the best we have seen so far this winter season.

5 comments:

Officer Droolie said...

Maybe your alma matter should spend less time worrying about football and try restoring their reputation by shining a light on a graduate who has an impressive knowledge of weather science, writes about it in a clear, articulate manner, and does it all for free as a service to a community he cares about!

Keep up the fine work Josh!

HOTPROP said...

Hear, hear!!

joan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Zach said...

O'Brien will do fine at PSU. He is a young coach who will be able to recruit well in the East and I believe Penn State will give him the time to turn things around in Happy Valley.

I think in the long run everyone in the Penn State family will consider this hire a smart decision by the school. It will take time for things to completely go back to the way they were, but it will happen.

Cheers.

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