A decent snow is on the top of our wish list and believe it or not it's coming. I am honestly surprised that the National Weather Service seems to content with no watches or advisories and is suggesting 1-3 inches Monday night. The swath of moisture associated with the initial push of milder temperatures is quite impressive and although it will encounter some very dry air as it moves east, it will nonetheless maintain good frontogenetic support. Snow should begin in the evening Monday and occasionally fall at a moderate or evening heavy clip during the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's Monday and remain there through Monday night which will seem almost tropical around here compared to the last 5 days but still cold enough to support powder. By Tuesday morning we should have a good 4-8 inches of powder and about a day to enjoy it before it turns very warm and very wet at MRG. 1949 prices seems like a pretty good bargain for what should be a cloudy and calm day with temperatures just below freezing. Some freezing drizzle Tuesday is about the only daytime precipitation we should see.
The thaw Wednesdsay is the classic New England skiers nightmare. It comes fast and furious with wind and high dewpoints, two very destructive components. We could see the occasional freezing drizzle Tuesday turn to a steadier freezing rain Tuesday night. By late on Wedneday temperatures will surge into the 50's at the base, aided by some sunshine and the aforementioned winds. The rain will arrive Wednesday evening and could also become heavy during the night. In summary, the thaw will again be quite destructive and put our limited base on the defensive while destroying the snowpack in valley locations.
The intensity of the upcoming thaw certainly has taken me by surprise but the weather has been very changeable this season and has included some violent temperature fluctuations. We will see this continue late this week with plummeting temperatures again thanks to another arctic surge of air. Lingering instability in the wake of the passage of the cold front will allow for snow showers late this week but accumulations will be minimal. The next chance for significant snow comes over the weekend from what looks to be a fairly potent clipper system. This system has some potential to produce a light to moderate snowfall but remains 5-6 days away so we should expect some forecast adjustments.
We successfully align the 3 major teleconnection indices for a period of about 5 days beginning on the last day of January and ending February 5. In this period temperatures will remain cold and snowfall will come mainly from clippers or weaker disturbances. Beyond February 5th there are now clearer indications both good and bad. The good involves the activity in the pattern with at least one major weather system indicated in the first full week of February. The bad involves the ridge/trough axis which is indicated to shift west and this put interior New England in a clash zone between mild and very cold air. This can lead to a very good result but we would prefer to see no risk of any more mild intrusions for a while.