Wednesday's thaw is a nasty one. Dewpoints in the 40's, strong south winds and not to be forgotten, the rain. It will be a heavy soaking rain as well which should begin Wednesday evening and persist through a good chunk of the overnight. Rainfall could total over an inch and rumbles of thunder might be heard throughout the Green Mountains. Thaws are a fact of life in any New England winter, even the colder winters, but this surge of warmth will be particularly crippling to ski areas across the region because of the intensity. The rain will be over and done with Thursday evening and colder temperatures will quickly displace the warmth and bring temperatures back to below freezing levels Thursday night.
Our snowpack will be on life support by Thursday and our need for fresh snow will be as great as ever. Fortunately there are a few chances during the first 7 days of February. A weak disturbance should allow for some terrain induced snow Friday but two potent Canadian clippers have the potential to be snow producers, both getting a late injection of Atlantic moisture. The first brings its chance for snow Sunday. It will appear like a disorganized system as it travels through the Midwest but then organize along the Atlantic Coast and potentially spread moisture back into interior sections of New England in the form of snow. The second is a more potent weather system and even more capable of bringing significant snow to New England on Monday ot Tuesday. The question relates to where and that will depend on the eventual tracks of both systems. The roller coaster temperature ride will also continue I almost forgot to mention. Temperatures will again drop well below normal by Friday and generally remain there through a good part of next week. This means plenty of days with temps in the teens by day and well below zero at night.
The longer range outlook has taken an unfortunate turn for the worse and it fits the back and forth personality of the winter. It's the evil empire yet again. All three major ensemble packages show its return. The more energetic Pacific Jet Stream will force more Pacific air into the U.S. after February 7th allowing for temperatures to moderate. In spite of all this, there are indications of a big winter weather producer for the 2nd weekend of February.