Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Swing and a miss this weekend, some snow next week but a brief thaw in the middle

This will be another abbreviated update since a tablespoon of coffee just put my labtop on injured reserve for a time. Mentally I am also on injured reserve since our late week storm is wide right. It might still be the 9th inning but there are two outs and two strikes and it looks for all the world that this storm will get shunted out to sea as it consolidates its energy off the coast. Some snow starved areas in the Mid-Atlantic should get a long awaited taste of snow but they don't appreciate the powder like we do and I mean no offense toward them. In the meantime, the extreme cold gripping the Mad River Valley will gravitate back toward more garden variety cold by the end of the weekend. We could get a brief period of light snow Friday night but for the most part, the upcoming three days should feature lots of sunshine.  Saturday will be a bit on the breezy side but both Friday and Sunday can be characterized as calm and cold.

Our next shot of snow comes as a result of a mild push of air. It will take some work to get the mild air into interior New England and although that battle will be lost for a day next week we should see some snow Monday night into Tuesday thanks to this warm front. The mild day, and it looks likes we see one, occurs Wednesday. I am hoping that blocking at the extreme high latitudes finds away out of this but in any case, the mild surge will be a brief one resulting in a day of above freezing temps. Rain and damaging wind is also possible but hopefully any of that will be very brief.

In spite of our miss on the storm and a potential brief thaw next week, you have to like the fundamentals anchoring this pattern going forward. The evil empire will go into hibernation for a time (although it rears its head briefly next week) and lets not wake this sleeping troll. Furthermore, we should see continued support from all of the teleconnection indices especially during the first 7-10 days of February. The missing ingredient is the big storm and we need to jump start the southern branch of the jet stream to help improve our chances. Although there remains hints of split flow and some activity in the pattern there remain only vague signals. I would venture to guess that weaker disturbances will deposit some fresh snow prior to the first full weekend of February with a slight chance of a bigger storm around the time of this weekend. Stay warm this weekend and don't spill any coffee on any laptops if your not on the slopes.

1 comment:

Kristen S. said...

If one were to chose any ski area to go to on that one bad day, which one do you think would have the best conditions? Bolton? Jay? Sugarbush? Smuggs? (dog forbid) Stowe? It's not clear at this point that MRG will be able to offer much.