Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Friday, January 18, 2013

Light amounts of new snow through the weekend and a more oganized snow produder possible late next week

At least a few inches of snow is covering the thick layer of crust across the Green Mountains. It will take several days, but we should be able to add a few more inches and set ourselves up for another extended period of good skiing, I hope. In the short term, we will have to settle for the proverbial "bunt single" or two. The arctic air has arrived and disturbances rotating through the polar jet will bring the limited snow through the weekend. The snow should begin again Friday night, taper to flurries Saturday and evolve into snow showers or even a brief burst of heavier snow Sunday as another and stronger shot of arctic chill advances on the region. I can't guess if its enough to get the main mountain back in business but the few inches Friday night and few inches Saturday should total 4-8 inches over that 3-day period. The third clipper feature discussed in the last update does not appear as promising according to the last 3 or so cycle of model runs but it still has the potential to quickly strengthen off the Atlantic coast. Because of its quick movement however, the chances of it having any meaningful impact on Vermont have decreased considerably.

Most of the snow shower activity after Monday will be focused on areas farther south and although some Lake Champlain induced flurries remains possible in the Monday-Thursday period, the main story will be extreme cold. Temperatures throughout this period will struggle to get past 10 across the mountains and fall well below zero at night. This particular outbreak of cold should best anything we saw last year in both intensity and duration. Previous runs of the American Model and a few runs of the Canadian model showed a clipper system in the middle of next week capable of producing snow but the main thrust of the Jet Stream will be pretty far south during this time I would venture to guess that any clipper system would prefer a southern route.

We have seen a convergence of indicators in the last 24-36 hours point to a more organized storm system late next week. The storm would move out of the northern Rockies as the polar jet temporarily recedes northward. With arctic air firmly in place, the groundwork has so-to-speak been laid for a healthy overrunning surface, so as the system moves across the country and attempts to push milder air northward, an expanding shield of precipitation should be the result and some of it will be snow across Vermont. Yes, there have hints that the air could get too mild changing precipitation to sleet or freezing rain but I am not concerned about that yet. The NAO/AO tag team should be put to good use here and prevent the storm from tracking too far up the St Lawrence Valley.

The last 5-days of January appear to be a pretty fluid period across New England. A re-enforcing shot of chill follow the weather system late next week, but this will quickly be followed by another potentially stronger push of mild air associated with another weather system. Snow could be the result but there is a risk around the 28th, 29th or 30th of the month of around a 1-day thaw or precipitation other than snow. At least right now, I like what I see going into early February.


Kristen S. said...

No rain or ice allowed Jan 26 - Feb 2!!

Gauss said...

Josh, what's great about your posts is your metaphors. "Bunt single"--that says it perfectly!