Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Friday, December 19, 2014

Join the movement ! Sign the petition ! Keep the warm air out !

If there seriously was a community-action type movement, I would certainly put a sign in my yard. I even wonder if I made a tee-shirt "keep the warm air out" and sold them at the Mad River Glen general store, would they sell. They should this week..

I am certainly a little disappointed at Santa Claus for the partial Christmas debauchery that models are currently indicating for the mountain. Especially for a week that showed such promise a week ago only to turn so horribly wrong the last few days. The model consensus has moved away from the "Midwest hurricane" which was indicated a few days ago. This would have a more dire scenario with, warm air, rain, wind, and high dewpoints dealing the mountain a crippling blow heading into the New Year. The period of 40-plus warmth and rain appears limited to a smaller window now but needless to say it will still do some damage.

In the very short term, we will get a chance to dry out this weekend. Limited sunshine and a higher ceiling should allow for better visibility. Temperatures will also remain below freezing through Monday. Part of our "How the Grinch Stole Our Snow" story next week involves how a storm which originally seemed to destined to be a big east coast hit Sunday/Monday, has fizzled to nothing (Monday looks entirely dry) and how all the action now is confined to the massive mid-continent jet amplification which will have a clear dominance over the battlefield.

As of now, there appear to be a few pieces to the Christmas storm and although this is still hardly ideal, it is better than the alternative as I had mentioned - the bomb/hurricane looking system over the Midwest. The first wave brings it's moisture into interior New England Tuesday; in fact, temperatures at that point might still be able to support snow for a time before going to some freezing rain or drizzle. If the storm conglomerate remains a conglomerate, the near freezing temperatures will put up some resistance and we will avoid any substantial melt-off through early Christmas Eve. After that though, the region will see a tremendous surge of both Atlantic Ocean moisture and air and this will allow readings to climb into the upper 30's. The rain could be heavy and be accompanied by wind - it won't be pretty. There are indications on some of the medium range models that temperatures spike into the mid-40's, though I am still holding out some hope that we remain in the 30's, partially limiting the damage.

With the trough amplification occurring much farther west than we would have preferred and the upper air energy associated with this storm drifting north into eastern Canada late next week, it will actually take a bit of time to chill the mountain down again. Wrap around moisture might be able to sweep back into Vermont by the 26th but snow will be limited and valley temperatures might remain above freezing. There is a second weather system that should come out of the Rockies late in the week which could bring mixed precipitation or snow to the region around the time of the 27th. Hopefully this begins our road back.

We still expect the emergence of a jet stream block over Alaska and a loosening of the jet in the mid-latitude Pacific. Eventually, even the NAO is expected to make a run into negative territory. This will support the presence of cold arctic air across much of the country including New England. There has been a trend in recent days to shift the main thrust of this arctic air westward allowing the east coast to be more in a battle zone of air-masses. This works fine for us since it usually means storminess, and we will need that after the Grinch steals our snow Christmas eve.

1 comment:

The donger said...

Let's New Years update pleeeaaassseeeee