In what looks, in the large scale, like a very no-fun weather pattern, Vermonters might be in need of their party hats next week. I don't want to get too carried away but there is, at the very least, a good deal to discuss over the next week. Mad River has yet to open so we will try and keep this concise.
There are now two precipitation producers to talk about, the 2nd of which is the most intriguing but also the most uncertain. The first arrives Friday night and brings the ole variety pack of weather with it. Although a limited supply of cold has been positioned over New England, it will grow stale by late Friday. Precipitation will arrive in the form of snow, accumulate 1-3 inches and then change to freezing rain or rain, depending on the exact location. Model cross sections do show the potential for a return to snow Saturday afternoon or evening after several hours of freezing rain, rain or drizzle. The snow on the back end of this system could again amount to several inches. Hopefully it all makes for a nice concrete slab to build on. Nothing wrong with a good foundation if that's what we get.
Arctic air positioned in Quebec will then infiltrate the region and become what could be an important ingredient. The big picture view shows the polar jet in full retreat mode next week and although this can be counter-productive, it can also allow open the door for all sorts of interesting things along the east coast. Think about it ! No polar jet and nothing steer some of the bigger Atlantic storms out to sea. So it basically goes like this. A storm will gather strength near the Virginia Tidewater Monday and proceed up the coast Tuesday. Meanwhile, a leftover Pacific disturbance will dive into the Midwest and little provide the dynamite for what should be an explosive storm. A classic noreaster actually, though the coast should be spared of any snow.
The cold air comes compliments of our buddies in Quebec but it will only have a precarious hold on the region. That and the American GFS model continues to take the system out innocently over the ocean. So the possibility of a rain event and the possibility of a total whiff remains a part of the possibility range. This being said, the more I look at this system, the more I think it could produce results. Maybe even big results of the foot or more variety. Totally incredible actually in an otherwise crap pattern. I almost forgot, the timing of all this is pushed back slightly. Precipitation, if it does arrive comes Tuesday and persists through much of the day.
And yes it still remains a relatively unexciting pattern. The jet in the Pacific has tightened and although the teleconnections are generally neutral or slightly adverse for us. Jet energy like that in the Pacific is always problematic. By around the December 14th or so, we could be looking at a thaw or at least a series of above freezing December days. The weather has done a good job of thwarting an otherwise lousy pattern so far. Maybe it continues.