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Friday, December 12, 2014

Mild air won't dent us too much over the next few days so lets discuss more interesting stuff down the road

The big nor'easter has left MRG sitting pretty on December 12th with a terrific base to work of off. Hopefully as many of you as possible were able to make it out for opening day, the earliest in a decade if memory serves. To provide some perspective, I remember years where no one has been up the single until mid-January

Although flurries will continue through Saturday, we are entering a brief drier and milder stretch of days. I say mild but the relative "warmth" will merely consist of a few comfortable above-freezing afternoons Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and when I say "above freezing" I am talking mid-30's. All three of these days should feature some great visibility as well which the mountain hasn't had since Monday. If there is a upcoming concern, it involves a potential weather system that is expected to swing through the region Tuesday night. Temperatures will be quite marginal and we may see rain or mixed precipitation. There is a Great Lakes low pressure center with this system that is likely to pass to our west but it is possible that the storm makes a jump to the coast. If it does this quickly, and the coastal system can intensify quickly, it could keep precipitation mostly frozen and even allow for a few inches of snow before more seasonable below freezing temperatures are ushered back into the region later in the week.

There are two very visible, and very intriguing looking southern jet disturbances that have been on many of the recent ensemble runs over the past two days or so. They begin a progression across the southern part of the country late next week and move into Texas by the weekend of the 20th/21st. Meanwhile, the pattern fundamentally will begin to take on a different shape. The blowtorch across Canada will subside and this should start to open the door for colder weather to enter the weather picture (although I don't think this really happens until after Christmas). The system in Texas next weekend will need some help, a wingman so to speak. If a disturbance, either Pacific or Polar, can come and provide a little assistance, this could again wind up being a significant east coast system in the days prior to Christmas. The same goes for the 2nd disturbance which should trail the first by a few days.

In short, with the threat of a big warm-up now mitigated, we can now focus on what could wind up being a very exciting period around the days of the Christmas holiday, with all this occurring after an early open and 45 inches of snow which has already fallen this month. I'll talk more about some of the longer range stuff come this Sunday when we could perhaps have a clearer view at particulars.

1 comment:

Steve Rheaume said...

Not quite the earliest opening in a decade. In 2009, MRG also opened on December 12th:

Though a few trails were "needlessly reserved" according to my report from 2009 whereas today MRG was 100% open. So today may have been the earliest 100% opening in the past decade but we are starting to split hairs. :)