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Friday, March 13, 2015

A little wet Saturday but powdery Sunday

The weekend event is not looking to throw us any curve balls, at least not yet. The best "frontogenetics" with this event on Saturday will set up about 100 miles north of us. There are also issues on Saturday with the limited amount of available cold though I believe the frontogenetics is the bigger issue since that is ultimately where the heaviest precipitation will fall. Saturday should feature plenty of clouds and eventually some light rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30's. The wet weather is not expected to persist for too long and liquid precipitation should amount to less than a quarter inch, perhaps less than a tenth of an inch.

Overnight Saturday, colder air, both aloft and at the surface will establish itself over the mountain as the weather system in question reestablishes its position off the coast. A healthier conveyor of precipitation should then move over the Green Mountains by Sunday morning which should be in the form of snow. The snow will continue through much of the day and accumulate 5-10 inches before tapering off Sunday evening. This is a rare instance this winter when areas farther north should see better results from this storm. Jay Peak for example could score well over foot and could see more in the way of snow Saturday. With temperatures in the 20's and several inches of snow on Sunday, Mad River will ultimately be powdery as well.

Sub-freezing temperatures will last through the overnight hours Sunday and then another mild push of air could allow readings on Monday afternoon to approach 40. A fiesty clipper system will put a quick end to the mild air and will mark the beginning of another sustained stretch of below normal temperatures that will begin Tuesday. The aforementioned clipper may bring a little rain to the region and then precipitation turns to snow by Tuesday morning, accumulating a few inches before conditions dry out later in the day.

I expect below normal temperatures to prevail for most of the rest of the month beginning on St Patrick's Day thanks to another charismatic looking PNA structure. In the periods between March 18-23, the storm track appears very suppressed much as it was in late February. A storm might impact the Mid Atlantic States around the weekend of the 21st and 22nd but there is nothing as of now that indicates an impact for interior New England though this remains more than a week out. The final week of March appears a bit more promising in this regard as there are hints of potential storms leading up to April 1.

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