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Monday, March 2, 2015

Midweek system should speed through region and will likely fail to push temperatures much past freezing if at all

A quick update and then I begin a western skiing pilgrimage when during that time updates might become a bit more sparse. Everything appears sped up with the mid-week storm and this weather system as a whole appears far more disorganized. None of this is particularly bad news for us since it means the attempt to push the mountain up past the freezing mark for any length of time will fail. Snow should begin late Tuesday evening and we should see a few inches before a period a several hour period of mixed sleet and freezing rain. With each successive model run, it looks like less ice and more sleet which is what we want but it still appears as if some minimal amount of freezing rain very early Wednesday. It might sound like some "wishcasting" on my part but I would not be surprised if we eliminate most of the ice from the forecast on Tuesday. As for most of the ski day Wednesday, I think the precipitation mostly tapers off and we are left with a low overcast with some occasional freezing drizzle. Flurries and snow showers are then the scenario for Wednesday night and Thursday as cold air is ushered back into the Vermont high country.

I don't think it will the last hurrah for cold weather and snowfall at MRG but the upcoming weekend into early next week will be the last round of "much below normal" temperatures before we are injected with some spring time weather. There are two decent looking clipper systems during this 5-day period. The first should provide snowfall during the middle part of the upcoming weekend. The second, in the early next week time frame has the potential to achieve more stature and bring some significant snowfall to somebody before it exits out into the Atlantic. The time frame of this second and potentially more potent system is next Tuesday the 10th of March though that could change.

A large upper level ridge will form across western North America and changes within the structure of the jet stream upstream of this will force this ridge eastward as we move toward the middle of the month. The large ridge which has dominated Alaska and almost ruined the dogsled competition this year will be displaced allowing a major tightening of the Jet Stream over the Pacific. All this means much less winter for most of eastern North America in general, us included. It will take some time for these changes to manifest into actual weather over Vermont but this should happen by the 12th or 13th of March and continue for at least a week. During that time frame we will have several above-freezing days, a few days in the 50's and perhaps even a day above 60 in low lying areas. I expect winter to make a final stand late in the month or even in early April before completely relinquishing it's grip for the year.

1 comment:

TJ said...

Have a great trip out West: your timing is impeccable.

Thank you,