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Thursday, March 26, 2015

Some interesting possibiliites for the first weekend in April

It's got a little wet out there during the middle of the week but cold weather is in the process of reestablishing its grip on the region. A light accumulation of snow Friday morning accompanies the turn to colder weather and the deep trough responsible for this latest round of chill will also help ignite an offshore storm Friday night into Saturday. This system will stay well east of Cape Cod but dynamics will allow for some snow across southern New England through much of the day Saturday. Not much is expected across interior New England except for the continuation of flurries and perhaps an additional inch following the few inches received Friday. Temperatures will remain below freezing for much of the weekend, but sunshine will help boost readings at least close to the freezing mark by late Sunday afternoon.

There is lots of weather to talk about in the days and weeks that follow. Much, but not all of it appears wintry. Two clipper systems are lined up and ready to deliver some goodies early in the week. The first should deliver a decent 2-5 inch snow to the mountain Monday. We are a bit limited on available cold air so the snow could be on the wetter side at the base of the mountain but should remain powdery from the mid-mountain to the summit. Models are arguing about the 2nd clipper which has been showing some potential on recent runs of the Euro while other models are confining much of the precipitation activity to the south of Vermont. The early part of the week won't be especially cold but should not allow for significant thawing with readings climbing into the 30's during the day and falling into the 20's at night.

The cold air is expected to make another temporary retreat during the later part of the week while activity in the jet stream begins to enhance. Initially, the storminess will be focused on the west but much of this activity is expected to move across the country by very late in the week and the weekend. Models have been digesting this information and spitting out varying solutions in this 7-10 day time frame but a hazy picture that includes two sizable looking weather systems is beginning to emerge. A potential first precipitation producer strikes the region with limited cold air and is likely to result in a period of rain for the mountain in the Thursday to Friday time frame. Some very interesting possibilities exist for the 2nd system over the weekend thanks to the presence of a fresh supply of colder temperatures and an amplifying trough in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. You just get one of those feelings that the winter will not leave us until sending one more memorable storm. I keep waiting, but such an event has yet to materialize. The potential is certainly there during the first full weekend of April but it remains more than a week out and several key details need to be sorted out before any promises are made.

Cold should linger through about April 6th or 7th before more spring thawing commences.

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