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Monday, March 30, 2015

Snowfall still possible this weekend but much milder air will win control for a time late this week

The month of March is concluding and I have been admittedly discouraged with how the weather has played out. Plenty of relative cold throughout the month has kept temperatures 5 degrees below average but organized storm systems were scarce and many locations were only able to score 30-50 of their respective normal melted precipitation totals. Though I don't want to be one to complain, especially after a relatively successful winter, any March featuring cold of this intensity is somewhat wasted if the snow isn't falling.

The sour mood is also a result of the evolving outlook for the rest of the week and the weekend. After some snow on Monday, a clipper system will move southeast through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday but its moisture will entirely miss New England and much of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be precipitation free. Temperatures will be on the cold side of seasonable between Tuesday and Thursday morning, generally staying below freezing even during the day and falling into the teens at night. By Thursday afternoon milder air will make a push into the region and temperatures should make a push toward 40 degrees.

As of late last week, it appeared as if Vermont and much of New England would be ground zero for a battleground of airmasses and weather conditions. A healthy area of cold remains across much of Eastern Canada while a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast U.S. will allow mild air to expand and push north. All this happening as an activated jet stream pushes at least one big organized storm system into the plains and ultimately toward New England. Unfortunately, it appears as if the warm weather will mostly win out, particularly late this week. Thursday will feature temperatures near 40 followed some rain Thursday night. Friday will then follow with some of the mildest weather in quite some time, perhaps as high as 55 degrees before a front arrives Friday night. There are still some signs of a 2nd piece to this storm system, though in recent days this system appears weaker and less threatening. Still, at least we have chance. The potential storm appears more like a wave along the eastward moving cold front. This wave will hopefully be a little strong and perhaps evolve into a rain to heavy snow situation for Saturday April 4. At the very least the push of colder temperatures will ensure another wintry period of weather lasting through Monday April 6th with some snow from a disturbance possible on Sunday April 5th.

Beyond April 6th, the ensembles are strongly indicating the development of a much warmer pattern across much of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. This will certainly help the growing season commence in those areas. Vermont and much of Northern New England will be on the northern edge of this developing pattern and at times we will see the effects of this and at times colder air push the milder air southward again. I do expect some serious thawing though in the period beginning April 7th through the middle of the month, perhaps enough to end the ski season at MRG.

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