A big push of spring-like warmth is on the way

All things considered, Vermont ski country managed to do decently well this holiday weekend. Our massive spring-like wave of warmth is coming however and it would be accurate to refer to it as "warm" as opposed to "mild". Temperatures will be near 20 to start our 2018 President's Day Monday but gradually warm past the freezing mark as clouds advance into the region. By the time precipitation arrives in association with this formidable warm front late in the day Monday, temperatures will be up around 40 and rain will be the result. For much of Monday night into Tuesday, the aforementioned front will remain situated in close enough proximity (roughly the Canadian border) to keep the showery weather and clouds close. Rainfall will be more prevalent, the farther north you are in Vermont but the Mad River Valley and most of the rest of the state will be decidedly in the warm sector. This means temperatures make a push into the 50's Tuesday and the corn horn gets blown. Wednesday appears downright tropical. The surge of warmth makes another northward push allowing for a good amount of sunshine to mix down some of the excessive mid-level warmth. Readings are likely to reach 60 even at the base of MRG (1700 feet or so) and well into the 60's across the low lying valleys.

A cold front will put an end to the spring extravaganza Wednesday night and will bring a few showers to the region as it does so, though heavy rain is not expected. Temperatures will remain well above average and in many areas, above freezing Thursday but will finally cool into the 20's Thursday night thanks to a clear sky and calm winds. Friday appears quite sunny for much of the day with temperatures approaching or crossing the freezing mark but clouds in advance of the next storm system may make an appearance at some point before evening. This weekend weather producer has more subtropical juice and only a minimal amount of cold weather. Most importantly, models are concurring that it tracks up through the central or eastern Great Lakes. Precipitation may start as a mixed bag early Saturday and then change to ice and rain as the day progresses. It would be wise to leave some leg-room for changes as we get closer to the weekend but the prevailing weather pattern is quite mild which encourages these types of storm tracks. Saturday's precipitation might also not be the last of the weekend weather though it is tough to tell as of now what type of storm might follow, if at all for Sunday or Monday.

Changes in the jet stream are expected to occur on time and a block is expected to form close to Greenland by early next week. This will put an end to the excessive temperatures across eastern North American generally but readings will only slowly drop in Vermont. Temperatures are likely to spend a chunk of the last weekend in February above freezing and this might continue into Monday and Tuesday. The February 28th/March 1st time frame is finally when we get our first legitimate shot at some new snow but arctic air appears to have a very minimal presence over New England and any day where precipitation isn't falling, temperatures are likely to climb above freezing.