Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 12, 2018

Outlook for holiday week turns even milder

The late surge of warmth on Sunday has our snow encrusted yet again and when combined with the outlook for much of the rest of February, my Valentines Day spirit leaves something to be desired. A ferocious ridge in the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will induce a fast flowing west to east jet stream south of Alaska. Not only will arctic air be forced into retreat mode across eastern North America, but the pattern will take on a classic "negative-PNA" configuration which focuses all the cold weather and much of snowfall on the Intermountain West while large portions of the eastern United States experience spring-like warmth. Models have been and continue to be extremely slow picking up the intensity of the pattern which largely stems from the stalling MJO and problems resolving the behavior of the jet stream in the Pacific generally. There's simply no denying it now however, the upcoming pattern is a very challenging one and is almost certain to deliver Vermont its third consecutive February with temperatures 3 or more above average. Barf  !

Seasonable temperatures and sunshine will prevail for Tuesday and temperatures will remain winter-like through Wednesday morning before "El Torchy" makes its first February visit to Vermont.  The warm push will not bring any new snowfall to the region prior to its arrival; instead, southwest winds Wednesday afternoon will bring temperatures into the 40's in many areas and 30's across the high country. This initial round of warmth, which is now expected to persist through early Friday doesn't appear to be associated with heavy rain or high dewpoints which are two ingredients that eat snow like we might eat fried green beans after a long day at MRG. We will however have one relatively windy day Wednesday, 48 hours of above freezing temperatures in many areas and some light rainfall Thursday, Thursday night and early Friday.

Arctic cold is set to return for a time beginning midday on Friday and a sagging front responsible for the colder weather does offer a few more hopeful possibilities. The most likely outcome is that some light rainfall early Friday gives way to a sharp turn toward colder temperatures accompanied by a few significant snow showers. Though the window is brief, the set up for lake/terrain induced snow showers is pretty good across the Mad River Valley Friday evening as it stands right now and a few inches is a reasonable expectation by early Saturday. Then there is the Tom Brady hail mary possibility for Friday. This would involve Friday's potential precipitation producer becoming an anafrontal wave with undercutting southeastward advancing cold inducing a changover to steady and significant snowfall. Models don't show this now and thus it has the distinction of being a Tom Brady hail mary.

 Our upcoming holiday Saturday is sunny and chilly, hopefully with a few new inches of snow and this is followed by a cloudier Sunday with temperatures making a run at the freezing mark by the afternoon. By Sunday, milder air will be gathering across the southern and central parts of the country and preparing to make another massive push northward. We could see some precipitation, even the more frozen type prior to its arrival, but unfortunately,  it will be very difficult to keep the milder air away from the state for a good chunk of the holiday week. The mild push stems from what is expected to be an amplifying jet and a huge dump of cold across the western United States. We can get somewhat saved if the jet turns out to be flatter. Though this remains a possibility, it seems to be a deteriorating one as more and more model data continues to support the negative PNA configuration mentioned above. Mild weather would thus reach the state Monday, Presidents Day which would be one of up to 3 or 4 above freezing days next week. Rainfall is also possible. The forecast isn't solidified yet and there have been 2 or 3 other potential thaws that have been thwarted this winter but the fundamentals look worse and worse.

Out further in time is the potential development of a block in the jet stream over Greenland. Though this would help push the jet stream southward again and possibly allow the month to finish with a flourish, ensembles continue to push the positive impacts of this feature out further in time.

7 comments:

Jeff Williams said...

Good work Josh. Wish the news were better, but your forecasts are a big help in planning our ski outings.

Tom L. said...

Thanks for the detail Josh as always. Try channelling your inner Nick Foles for a better outcome. :) Fly Snow Fly on the road to powder days.

Colin Gilbert said...

I speak Indonesian, so just wanted to translate the above messages. sukri dipalembang's note, condensed, was "The Indonesian Gods of harmony and inclusiveness are punishing Vermont because the ski mountain, Mad River Glen, prohibits snowboarders". He then goes on to question the logic of a chair lift which only has room for one person, and finally, he askes if someone from the united states could write him back to explain why Tom Brady kisses his son on the lips and why he actually wanted the footage of him doing so to be consumed by the public.

Bill Helene said...

Hahaha. Indonesian no understand hokey regional totems like MRG.

Tom McAuley said...

When you never win and feel incomplete you obsess on sports
Yeah for Colin!!!
feel good for a while because you will suck again

Ibu.Solimah di majalengka said...

Assalamualaikum Wr,Wb.
Saya dari IBU SOLIMAH DI MAJALENGKA bersyukur bahwa saya masih bisa di beri kesempatan untuk menulis dan berbagi kepada teman-teman melalui Situs/web ini,bahwa dulunya saya adalah seorang pengusaha dibidang matterial, dan sekarang saya terpaksa gulung tikar akibat di tipu teman sendiri,ditengah tagihan utang yang menumpuk,istri pun meninggalkan saya,ditengah himpitan ekonomi seperti ini saya coba buka internet untuk cari lowongan kerja,dan secara gak sengaja saya liat situs pesugihan MBAH KASURI, awalnya saya ragu dan gak percaya tapi setelah saya lihat pembuktian MBAH KASURI di Situs/webnya Saya pun langsug hubungi beliau dan Semua petunjuk MBAH saya ikuti dan hanya 3 jam beliau laksanakan pesugihan dana gaib untuk saya,Alhamdulilah Ternyata benar-benar terbukti dan dana 3 Miliar yang saya minta benar-benar ada di tangan saya, semua utang saya pada lunas dan sisanya buat modal usaha, kata-kata beliau yang selalu saya ingat setiap manusia bisa menjadi kaya, hanya saja terkadang mereka gak tau atau salah jalan.Banyak orang menganggap bahwa miskin dan kaya merupakan bagian dari takdir dari tuhan.maksudnya takdir macam apa? bahwa tuhan gak perna memberi takdir yang buruk terhadap kita,semua cobaan yang Tuhan berikan merupakan pembuktian bahwa seberapa kuat kita bertahan di dalamnya. Tuhan gak akan merubah nasib kita jika kita gak bisa berusaha untuk merubahnya.
Dan satu hal yang perlu kita ingat,“Bahwa jika kita terlahir miskin itu bukan salah siapapun,namun jika kita mati miskin itu merupakan salah kita.”karena kita terlahir didunia ini di beri kesempatan untuk berusaha agar tetap jadi orang yang sukses.dan saran ini saya dapat dari beliau bermanfaat sekali bagi saya makasih ya MBAH atas semua saran anda MBAH sekali lagi saya sangat berterimakasih kepada MBAH KASURI dan bagi anda yang ingin seperti saya silahkan hubungi MBAH KASURI di nomer ini
Hp: 0853 4646 0388 /
WhatsApp(Wa): 0822 9348 1889,
Atau Silahkan ««KLIK DISINI»»
saya juga gak lupa mengucap syukur kepada ALLAH karena melalui MBAH KASURI saya Bisa sukses.Jadi teman-teman yang dalam kesusahan jangan pernah putus asah, kalau sudah waktunya tuhan pasti kasih jalan asal kita masih mau berusaha, MBAH KASURI Banyak Dikenal Oleh Kalangan Pejabat,Pengusaha Dan Artis Ternama Karna Beliau adalah guru spiritual terkenal di indonesia.

IBU WINDA DI GARUT said...

KAMI SEKELUARGA TAK LUPA MENGUCAPKAN PUJI SYUKUR KEPADA ALLAH S,W,T
DAN TERIMAH KASIH BANYAK AKI ATAS BANTUAN NOMOR TOGEL NYA,YANG AKI BERIKAN.4D,(7504) ALHAMDULILLAH TERNYATA ITU BENAR2 TEMBUS AKI,DAN ALHAMDULILLAH SEKARANG SAYA BISA MELUNASI SEMUA HUTANG2 SAYA YANG ADA SAMA TETANGGA.DAN JUGA BANK BRI DAN BUKAN HANYA ITU AKI.INSYA ALLAH SAYA AKAN COBA UNTUK MEMBUKA USAHA SENDIRI DEMI MENGCUKUPI KEBUTUHAN KELUARGA SAYA SEHARI-HARI ITU SEMUA BERKAT BANTUAN AKI..SEKALI LAGI MAKASIH BANYAK  YA AKI, BAGI SAUDARA YANG SUKA MAIN TOGEL YANG INGIN MERUBAH  NASIB SEPERTI SAYA SILAHKAN HBG AKI SOLEH,Dl NO: _082_313_336_747_INSYA ALLAH ANDA BISA SEPERTI SAYA MENANG TOGEL 275,JUTA,DI JAMIN 100% JEBOL SAYA SUDAH BUKTIKAN SENDIRI,
APABILAH ADA  WSKTU
SILAHKAN HBG: AKI SOLEH DI NO: _082_313_336_747_
 KLIK DISINI
Atau Chat/Tlpn di WhatsApp (WA)
No WA Aki : 082313336747
*Angka Ghaib; Singapura
*Angka Ghaib; Hongkong
*Angka Ghaib; Toto malaysia
*Angka Ghaib; Keputusan Magnum
*Angka Ghaib; Toto Kuda
*Angka Ghaib; Kambodia
*Angka Ghaib; Sydney
*Angka Ghaib; Laos