Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Superbowl storm produces some, Wednesday storm to deliver more and maybe another around Feb 10-11

A couple hours of moderate to heavy snow during the Superbowl this evening will get us just a little  closer to the promised land. Though this event will not be especially memorable, moisture from the storm does look a little better verses some earlier expectations and even the few hours of heavy snow should be capable of delivering at least 6 inches. Temperatures will hover at or just below the freezing mark Sunday afternoon and evening and then fall back into the high teens by Monday morning. In addition to the snowfall Sunday evening, there remains a brief window for terrain and lake enhanced snow early Monday. It all makes for a powdery Monday with a storm total of about 6-12 inches.

Flurries and snow showers will persist as mentioned during the first half of Monday but sunshine should break through during the afternoon and the evening and night should feature starry skies and single digit cold. A weakening disturbance in the jet stream is expected to bring clouds back into the region for Tuesday along with some very light snow. Though the snow could coat the ground again, the focus will be on an excellent looking storm system that is expected to bring its snow on Wednesday.  This is a very run-of-the-mill weather system, but its also one of those positively tilted overrunning front-runners that Vermont typically performs especially well on. The track of the system is expected to be close to perfect so lets hope for little change and if we go with the assumption of little change, we will see snow throughout the day Wednesday and a solid 8-14 inches by first tracks time on Thursday. I can't guarantee all this just yet, but it looks very good as of Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will finish out the week on the chilly side but readings will not stray too far from seasonable norms with temps warming into the 20's during the afternoons and falling into the single numbers at night. Aside from a few flurries, the end of the week looks fairly dry.

Moving along to our 2nd full weekend in February, there's yet another storm and it again looks somewhat promising. Lots of disagreement still persists on how the details will all shake out, but yet again, we have a bit more feedback from the subtropics, just enough cold air and a favorable enough jet trajectory. This said, it's a tenuous set up and it could all fall to pieces quite easily.

As mentioned a few days ago, ensembles have really backed off on the idea of mid-February cold. The MJO looks stalled in a relatively neutral phase and the jet stream in the eastern Pacific appears tighter than a lot of us forecasters had expected maybe a week ago. The outlook on temperatures for the week leading up to the all important President's day holiday appears substantially less cold as a result. I would be hesitant to call it mild just yet but readings are likely to move to the above side of normal and this includes a few above-freezing days. This said, there aren't any signs of a massive thaw or significant melt-off; in fact, we are likely to score some additional snowfall somehow though we are a bit more at risk for some icing or even a minimal amount of rain.

Overall, still a pretty good outlook.


1 comment:

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