Won't get much help from the precipitation producers this weekend, could be a different story late next week though

It was El Torchy extraordinaire on Wednesday as historically warm temperatures encompassed the entire east coast including Vermont. Readings were well into the 60's way up on the mountain and touched 70 in a few spots across the low lying valleys. The excessive warmth was the result of a ridge in the jet stream which could rival conditions one might see in a summer. That ridge has been beaten back somewhat as of late this week and will continue to gradually diminish in the days to come. Needless to say, the Vermont snowpack took quite a hit and the northern part of the state missed out on some surprise snowfall that impacted parts of central and western New York and parts of Massachusetts.

Active weather will continue as subtropical moisture feeds a rather intense clashing of air masses as we enter the last full weekend of February. Tough temperatures have returned to below freezing levels, the area of cold will become stale as precipitation arrives from an innocuous area of low pressure that will pass to the region's northwest. Sleet should arrive during the afternoon across much of the central and northern part of the state and will change to a period of freezing rain during the evening. The precipitation won't amount to much and most of it will end by Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday appears balmy yet again, perhaps not the 60-degree kind of warmth we saw Wednesday but readings should climb into the 40's and the clouds should give way to some blue sky as the day progresses. A low pressure area of more substance will bring clouds back into the region Saturday night. As this is happening, a very minimal amount of cold air will drain into northern New England from the northeast. Though the primary area of low pressure is expected to track to our northwest again Sunday, severely denting our chances at significant snow, the subtropical connection will help a new area of low pressure to form along the southern New England coastline. Though we won't see the big snow, as mentioned, temperatures are likely to remain close to the freezing mark with a mix of wintry precipitation beginning Sunday morning. My guess right now is for a brief period of wet snow Sunday morning followed by some sleet, freezing rain and some rain, especially in the Champlain Valley. The mountains are likely to finish the the weekend with more "white" than when they started, but it will be sloppy and you'll have to head pretty far north to get out of that "slop".

The early part of next week through Wednesday March 1 appears milder with readings up around 40 during the day and in the 20's at night. Aside from some flurries in the northern mountains Monday, these days appear tranquil with decent amounts of sunshine both Tuesday and Wednesday. Then it gets interesting. It always seems to  happen when a big Greenland jet stream blocking feature enters the ball game and that's exactly what will transpire as we approach the first full weekend of March. A storm will approach from the west and like its predecessors, will head fake a Great Lakes -> Canadian province track. Not this time however. The blocked jet stream across the Davis Straits and Greenland is likely to force the storm south and perhaps really hog-tie it to the Atlantic Coastline. That's where all the craziness could ensue with all kinds of precipitation along with wind and coastal flooding. There is a glaring lack of arctic cold available but it doesn't appear excessively mild either.  So long as Vermont attains access to one of the storms moist conveyors, we should be able to get a decent elevation event at the very least. The blocking across Greenland is very severe however and is certainly capable of suppressing all of the precipitation to the south.

The storm late next week, wherever it goes, marks a general shift in the jet stream personality across not only North America but a large portion of the Northern Hemisphere. By the time of March 5th, the pattern will favor cooler weather across middle latitude locations and warmer conditions across the high latitude areas. Not a bad looking set up for March skiing not only for Vermont but also out west which has finally turned the corner in recent weeks and has gotten some decent snow. Vermont just needs the precip in March. If we get it, we should see some snow and perhaps significant amounts of it, if the jet sags too far south, it will mean a rather useless stretch of cooler weather.