A healthy dose of mixed precipitation fell over Vermont Sunday night into early Monday and by Monday afternoon, the warmest part of this storm will be behind us. As expected, a coastal low pressure center has formed and was re-concentrating the precipitation across much of New England Monday. Between 6-9 pm Monday evening, the lower troposphere should become cold enough to support all snow across northern Vermont and though the heaviest precipitation will be east of the state, 1-2 modest periods of snow should allow for a couple inches by Tuesday morning New Years Eve. Light snow is expected to then continue through the early part of the day followed by some clearing in the later part of the day. Across the valley locations, temperatures will hover close to the freezing mark from Monday through Monday night into early Tuesday. A little sun Tuesday afternoon will likely boost readings past 35 across the low lying areas leaving only the high country as the only locations to consistently remain sub-freezing. A disturbance associated with the now ancient upper level system (ex Dakota blizzard) will bring clouds and more snow showers back to Vermont Tuesday night, just as we approach the dawning of a new decade. This area of snow showers has some potential and I am fully expecting another accumulation by dawn on New Years Day with snow showers and flurries continuing throughout the day.
In accumulation speak, our expectations are roughly the same but with some fine tuned specifics.
2-4 inches Monday night
0-1 Tuesday morning
Sun Tuesday afternoon
2-4 Tuesday night
1-2 Wednesday
This applies to the high country above 2000 feet. Valley locations will get lesser amounts and gloppier amounts of whatever falls.
We can anticipate a drier Thursday with some sunshine and comfortable temperatures that are again expected to exceed the 30-degree mark. Clouds and moisture will then advance back into the region Friday as low pressure organizes in the lower Mississippi Valley and advances northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes. Some uncertainly remains regarding the eventual outcome of this storm which is expected to impact the region late Friday into the weekend. None of the possible outcomes appears especially appetizing though due to the lack of cold air and a less than optimal storm track. The best outcome for us would be for low pressure to again form along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and confine much of the rain and extreme warmth well to our south. The newly released American model is suggesting such and is indicating a near non-event (precipitation-wise) for northern Vermont. Other indications suggest a bit of rain Friday evening. Colder air Saturday night into Sunday should then allow for another period of snow showers with a possible accumulation.
I continue to think the 4-day period between Sunday January 5th and at least Thursday January 9th has some "wintry" potential. Temperatures should stay well below freezing during this stretch and there have been hints (though inconsistent hint) of a significant snow.
Overall however, the weather pattern through the first half of January continues to look lousy with an "evil empire" type ridge in the Pacific and a very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic regions. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index which measures the latter is forecast to surge to +3 in about a week and only very gradually subside (if at all) thereafter. We could certainly use some help from a cycling of the MJO, which for the first half of January will remain in some milder eastern North America phases. It won't persist forever, but it is another reason why a more persistent cold and snow outlook across interior New England is not my expectation through the first 3 weeks of January.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Saturday, December 28, 2019
New Years system to produce ! Some basebuilding stuff at least and likely a bit more from snow showers
Temperatures are mild across the state of Vermont as of early Saturday but the news is good with the upcoming winter storm. And yes, I am happy to report we can call it a "winter storm". The weekend weather will not at all be impacted by the upcoming weather system. As noted, Saturday will be mild and feature some sunshine with temperatures up around 40. Sunday will also feature a bit of sun in the morning but more clouds in the afternoon and it won't be quite as mild with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country.
The upcoming storm remains a forecasting challenge but the outlook continues to move toward a colder system overall; enough that, rain should no longer be any part of any forecast vocabulary, at least from the MRV on northward. That said, precipitation type remains a question at times and may depend on the precipitation intensity more than anything else. Such precipitation will arrive within a few hours of midnight Sunday night and thanks to a healthy push of dry Canadian cold weather, temperatures at the surface should be at or below freezing. Above the surface to about 9,000 feet, temperatures appear to be marginal in the period between midnight Monday and noon Monday. Given that, a mix of snow and sleet appears to be the most likely outcome with more snow falling when precipitation is heaviest and more sleet when it's lighter.
The storm as a whole will undergo quite a metamorphosis, making news as a full-blown blizzard over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas before weakening as it makes its eastern seaboard approach. It will be a slow process, but ultimately, another low pressure system is expected to take shape by Monday evening and gradually move northeast along the New England coast Monday night into New Years eve. We have to consider ourselves quite fortunate if this is indeed the evolution, because this 2nd system will thwart any intrusion of mild air and might even deliver a period of decent snowfall to the region Monday night following what might be a break in the action Monday afternoon (when it should just remain cloudy with temperatures near 30). The initial weakening storm has a large pool of instability that is eventually expected to deliver an extended period where snow showers or light snow can be expected. This period should begin sometime on New Years Eve and extend New Years Day.
At this point, I think its reasonable to expect 2-5 inches of a dense snow/sleet conglomeration early Monday and an additional 4-8 inches of fluffier, elevation sensitive snow New Years Eve and New Years Day. There is more upside potential with the developing coastal system as well. Though not a current part of our expectations, were we to get some of that snow, totals for the storm could approach a foot.
We still are not expecting an arctic cold in the wake of this storm. Temperatures will remain above normal in spite of the snow showers New Years Day and more sunshine will boost readings up toward the freezing mark on the 2nd. More subtropical moisture associated with a disorganized area of storminess will approach Friday and will likely bring some type of precipitation back to the region. Without much in the way of arctic cold to work with, our best hope is that this storminess stays disorganized and thus we might avoid a more assertive push of mild weather.
I still can't speak too highly of the pattern for the first half of Jan 2020, but we can still expect a temporary stretch of cold weather between Sunday the 5th and Wednesday the 8th of Jan. Hopefully there is some room in that window for another snow producing system.
The upcoming storm remains a forecasting challenge but the outlook continues to move toward a colder system overall; enough that, rain should no longer be any part of any forecast vocabulary, at least from the MRV on northward. That said, precipitation type remains a question at times and may depend on the precipitation intensity more than anything else. Such precipitation will arrive within a few hours of midnight Sunday night and thanks to a healthy push of dry Canadian cold weather, temperatures at the surface should be at or below freezing. Above the surface to about 9,000 feet, temperatures appear to be marginal in the period between midnight Monday and noon Monday. Given that, a mix of snow and sleet appears to be the most likely outcome with more snow falling when precipitation is heaviest and more sleet when it's lighter.
The storm as a whole will undergo quite a metamorphosis, making news as a full-blown blizzard over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas before weakening as it makes its eastern seaboard approach. It will be a slow process, but ultimately, another low pressure system is expected to take shape by Monday evening and gradually move northeast along the New England coast Monday night into New Years eve. We have to consider ourselves quite fortunate if this is indeed the evolution, because this 2nd system will thwart any intrusion of mild air and might even deliver a period of decent snowfall to the region Monday night following what might be a break in the action Monday afternoon (when it should just remain cloudy with temperatures near 30). The initial weakening storm has a large pool of instability that is eventually expected to deliver an extended period where snow showers or light snow can be expected. This period should begin sometime on New Years Eve and extend New Years Day.
At this point, I think its reasonable to expect 2-5 inches of a dense snow/sleet conglomeration early Monday and an additional 4-8 inches of fluffier, elevation sensitive snow New Years Eve and New Years Day. There is more upside potential with the developing coastal system as well. Though not a current part of our expectations, were we to get some of that snow, totals for the storm could approach a foot.
We still are not expecting an arctic cold in the wake of this storm. Temperatures will remain above normal in spite of the snow showers New Years Day and more sunshine will boost readings up toward the freezing mark on the 2nd. More subtropical moisture associated with a disorganized area of storminess will approach Friday and will likely bring some type of precipitation back to the region. Without much in the way of arctic cold to work with, our best hope is that this storminess stays disorganized and thus we might avoid a more assertive push of mild weather.
I still can't speak too highly of the pattern for the first half of Jan 2020, but we can still expect a temporary stretch of cold weather between Sunday the 5th and Wednesday the 8th of Jan. Hopefully there is some room in that window for another snow producing system.
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Adverse overall pattern remains a problem but some good news has emerged in spite of it all
There are no signs that the weather pattern will provide us with any love on the whole but some positive developments have emerged nonetheless, at least relative to what was thrown out in the last update. We still have some milder temperatures to work through over the next few days and this includes just a bit of freezing rain and rain Thursday night into early Friday. Most of the actual ski day Friday will be precipitation-free with temperatures in the upper 30's or low 40's. Visibility should improve a bit for Saturday but temperatures will remain balmy for Vermont, reaching at least 35 most places and upper 20's across the high summits.
Our big weather system remains on-target for late Sunday into early next week. The ski-day on Sunday actually looks rain-free and may even feature some morning sunshine. Temperatures will remain on the mild side of average (30's mostly) and minimal wind should make for a comfortable day on the hill. Snow will be falling with this system Sunday but mostly over central and northern Minnesota. The news is not all bad with this weather system however. Though precipitation will arrive as rain on Sunday evening, the initial snow-producing low pressure system over Minnesota & Wisconsin will begin to dissipate and so will the northward push of mild air up the eastern seaboard. Actually, it will be the colder, drier air that will battle back Sunday night and re-configure our temperature cross section in a more favorable direction by the early to middle part of Monday. Precipitation is likely to then change back to snow and the question relates to how much available lingering moisture will fall as snow from midday Monday into New Years Eve. Quite possibly we could receive several inches across the high country before the clock strikes 2020 but the jury remains out regarding very specific amounts.
Though this aforementioned storm appears colder for us, it remains devoid of series arctic chill both as the event is ongoing and in its wake on the first two days of the year. Snow showers and flurries will linger into New Years Day but only with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing during the day and 20's during the night. The summits should be cold enough throughout for any accumulating snow to be powder. The lack of cold air will present another challenge when the next storm impacts the region very late next week. It will require a very optimal track for a snowy result across Vermont and there are growing indications that the result might be something other than snowy. A lot can happen and change in over a week so stay tuned on that.
As mentioned, I can't speak fondly about the overall pattern. It remains unblocked at high latitudes and ripe for an easy surrender to an intense Pacific Jet stream. As mentioned in the last update, some of the most intense cold across northern hemisphere will at least remain over Alaska and both northern and western Canada. Close enough at least to remain a peripheral player for the first half of January even though it will hardly dominate. Ensembles are showing stronger indications of a decent cold surge beginning around January 5th with below normal temperatures prevailing through the middle part of that first full week of January. Any storm in that time frame would be snow I should think but this is way too far out for such things like promises or details.
Our big weather system remains on-target for late Sunday into early next week. The ski-day on Sunday actually looks rain-free and may even feature some morning sunshine. Temperatures will remain on the mild side of average (30's mostly) and minimal wind should make for a comfortable day on the hill. Snow will be falling with this system Sunday but mostly over central and northern Minnesota. The news is not all bad with this weather system however. Though precipitation will arrive as rain on Sunday evening, the initial snow-producing low pressure system over Minnesota & Wisconsin will begin to dissipate and so will the northward push of mild air up the eastern seaboard. Actually, it will be the colder, drier air that will battle back Sunday night and re-configure our temperature cross section in a more favorable direction by the early to middle part of Monday. Precipitation is likely to then change back to snow and the question relates to how much available lingering moisture will fall as snow from midday Monday into New Years Eve. Quite possibly we could receive several inches across the high country before the clock strikes 2020 but the jury remains out regarding very specific amounts.
Though this aforementioned storm appears colder for us, it remains devoid of series arctic chill both as the event is ongoing and in its wake on the first two days of the year. Snow showers and flurries will linger into New Years Day but only with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing during the day and 20's during the night. The summits should be cold enough throughout for any accumulating snow to be powder. The lack of cold air will present another challenge when the next storm impacts the region very late next week. It will require a very optimal track for a snowy result across Vermont and there are growing indications that the result might be something other than snowy. A lot can happen and change in over a week so stay tuned on that.
As mentioned, I can't speak fondly about the overall pattern. It remains unblocked at high latitudes and ripe for an easy surrender to an intense Pacific Jet stream. As mentioned in the last update, some of the most intense cold across northern hemisphere will at least remain over Alaska and both northern and western Canada. Close enough at least to remain a peripheral player for the first half of January even though it will hardly dominate. Ensembles are showing stronger indications of a decent cold surge beginning around January 5th with below normal temperatures prevailing through the middle part of that first full week of January. Any storm in that time frame would be snow I should think but this is way too far out for such things like promises or details.
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Not a ton of Christmas cheer in this update as we continue to fight a worsening winter weather pattern
Our forecast picture took a few uppercuts over the past few days. In the big picture, the prevailing negative fundamentals, the biggest of which being an AO and EPO index continuing to gain positive strength, are finally playing a stronger role in the regions weather locally and the forecast going forward. Rubbing a little salt in the wound is the forecast for late week which provided us with a bit of a head fake over the weekend. As of now however, much of the light snow that was beginning to appear likely Thursday night appears gone. We will have sub-freezing temperatures, good visibility, tolerable amounts of wind and some sunshine both on Xmas and on Thursday the 26th, but any light snow on Thursday night appears inconsequential (or end up falling as a wintry mix) and the milder temperatures which appeared to be only a miner threat for Friday, now appear likely with temperatures across much of the high country climbing above freezing.
Critical questions and potential problems have arisen after a tranquil Saturday the 29th. There are two major systems that could impact the east coast between Sunday 12/30 and Friday 1/3 and there are justifiable concerns regarding the first of these storms given the lack of arctic cold support. Both warm air and a lot of moisture are expected to surge northward ahead of an advancing area of low pressure Sunday in the Great Lakes region. The eventual trajectory of this storm remains a question, but if the storm tracks north of the St Lawrence Valley, it will be a disastrous wash-out across the entire state Sunday night into Monday. There are indications that the low pressure area in question travels on a more southern route, potentially re-energizing itself off the eastern seaboard. This would be a much better result but given the lack of available cold, even this result might include a bit of rain late Sunday at the onset of this event. Though colder weather is expected to return to Vermont Monday, it's Pacific Ocean air and will thus consist of well-above average temperatures. Lingering amounts of both moisture and instability could set the stage for a decent period of snow Monday but such an occurrence would be better given the latter more southern track of this storm. Either way, snow showers should persist into at least early Tuesday - New Years eve.
The longer range outlook is getting double-whammie'd by the very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic and a corresponding tight and ferocious jet stream in the Pacific (positive AO, EPO). A typical Vermont January is certainly capable of performing even in a marginal pattern; in fact, sometimes the marginal pattern outperforms a polar vortex type scenario where storms and moisture are suppressed too far south. This double-whammy is tough to overcome however, even in Vermont. If there is anything to hang our wintry hats on, its the fact that much of the most intense arctic air across the northern hemisphere will be positioned on the North American side as opposed to the Eurasian side. Though much of it will be across Alaska and NW Canada, perhaps some can find its way into select northern U.S. climates such as the interior NE. That's the positive spin admittedly but there's a negative result to this equation consisting of a forecast dominated by a much stronger torch for the first half of January. Again, that's not the indication yet but it's certainly a risk.
In the meantime, that 2nd storm discussed 2 paragraph's above appears to have an impact period between January 2nd to January 4th in Vermont if at all. Though it appears to be a colder storm for now, and a deeper east coast jet amplification, a lack of arctic cold will keep temperatures on the above side of average. We just have to hope that the lack of influence from the polar jet stream might provide the opportunity for more action along the east coast of the cyclogenesis/bombogenesis variety.
Critical questions and potential problems have arisen after a tranquil Saturday the 29th. There are two major systems that could impact the east coast between Sunday 12/30 and Friday 1/3 and there are justifiable concerns regarding the first of these storms given the lack of arctic cold support. Both warm air and a lot of moisture are expected to surge northward ahead of an advancing area of low pressure Sunday in the Great Lakes region. The eventual trajectory of this storm remains a question, but if the storm tracks north of the St Lawrence Valley, it will be a disastrous wash-out across the entire state Sunday night into Monday. There are indications that the low pressure area in question travels on a more southern route, potentially re-energizing itself off the eastern seaboard. This would be a much better result but given the lack of available cold, even this result might include a bit of rain late Sunday at the onset of this event. Though colder weather is expected to return to Vermont Monday, it's Pacific Ocean air and will thus consist of well-above average temperatures. Lingering amounts of both moisture and instability could set the stage for a decent period of snow Monday but such an occurrence would be better given the latter more southern track of this storm. Either way, snow showers should persist into at least early Tuesday - New Years eve.
The longer range outlook is getting double-whammie'd by the very unblocked jet stream in the Arctic and a corresponding tight and ferocious jet stream in the Pacific (positive AO, EPO). A typical Vermont January is certainly capable of performing even in a marginal pattern; in fact, sometimes the marginal pattern outperforms a polar vortex type scenario where storms and moisture are suppressed too far south. This double-whammy is tough to overcome however, even in Vermont. If there is anything to hang our wintry hats on, its the fact that much of the most intense arctic air across the northern hemisphere will be positioned on the North American side as opposed to the Eurasian side. Though much of it will be across Alaska and NW Canada, perhaps some can find its way into select northern U.S. climates such as the interior NE. That's the positive spin admittedly but there's a negative result to this equation consisting of a forecast dominated by a much stronger torch for the first half of January. Again, that's not the indication yet but it's certainly a risk.
In the meantime, that 2nd storm discussed 2 paragraph's above appears to have an impact period between January 2nd to January 4th in Vermont if at all. Though it appears to be a colder storm for now, and a deeper east coast jet amplification, a lack of arctic cold will keep temperatures on the above side of average. We just have to hope that the lack of influence from the polar jet stream might provide the opportunity for more action along the east coast of the cyclogenesis/bombogenesis variety.
Sunday, December 22, 2019
Not a terrific looking weather pattern to finish 2019 but it could nonetheless get interesting both in the near term and into the new year
Fundamentally speaking, there are an increasing number of adverse variables dictating the weather pattern across North America. This of course refers to the lack of support for cold and snowy conditions in Vermont as we approach another Christmas holiday. With that said, the short term weather forecast hardly looks that terrible and there are no glaring indications of a sustained blowtorch as we approach the end of 2019 and move into the early part of 2020. Instead, the pattern, though certainly not cold, appears at least capable of producing 1 or 2 interesting storms.
As mentioned the near term only consists of a mild Monday. Colder is is expected to arrive on Christmas Eve and we are not expecting any rainfall. Actually, much of Christmas Eve and Day appear to be pleasantly tranquil with at least partial sunshine and good visibility. It will be a little blustery Christmas Eve with winds around 10-15 mph but we've certainly encountered worse.
The last update discussed the possibility for snow late on Christmas Day into the 26th. We can upgrade the possibility for snowfall but we won't see any until late on the 26th. At that point, the minimal amount of cold air entrenched across interior New England should provide the overrunning surface necessary for a period of snowfall. Though snow could start as early as Thursday afternoon, it will likely be the Friday ski day which benefits the most from this. We have yet to see a total convergence of model output regarding this event but I'll call it a 60 percent chance we see a few inches Friday morning. At that point there are more diverging indications of what might occur with some indications that milder air could encroach on northern Vermont and other indications that interior New England remains cold through the start of the weekend. Following the mild start to the upcoming week, the biggest risk for a warm day and any mixed precipitation or rain appears to be either Friday 12/27 or early Saturday 12/28 though again, this is not yet conclusive.
If you follow the weather even just somewhat as religiously as I do, you might have heard about the persistent warmth in Alaska. Parts of central and northern Alaska have yet to record a below normal month in 2019 and have spent alarming amounts of time at or above record level temperatures. Over the next two weeks however, this recent trend will get thrown on its head as intense cold will settle over the state and remain there through the start of 2020. Typically, cold, arctic air in Alaska corresponds to a lack thereof in the more southern sections of North America and I expect this to be no exception. Alaskan cold also often corresponds to a more vigorous jet stream in the Pacific and ensembles continue to suggest an intensification here. Its looking more and more like an "Evil Empire" unfortunately and if I were to look the weather pattern in the eastern Pacific in isolation, I might expect a full blown blow torch across eastern North America. But the ensembles, as they have done for days, are not suggesting that at least as of yet.
There is a threat for the aforementioned warm day on the 27th or 28th but colder weather, possibly accompanied by some snowfall is possible on the 29th and 30th. After that, more mild air thwarting storminess appears likely with continued strong hints of some sort of major jet amplification along the east coast very early in 2020. Given the arctic cold in this pattern, any storm could push mixed precipitation, rain or warm weather into Vermont but at least we have a puncher's chance in a pattern where sometimes we would not.
As mentioned the near term only consists of a mild Monday. Colder is is expected to arrive on Christmas Eve and we are not expecting any rainfall. Actually, much of Christmas Eve and Day appear to be pleasantly tranquil with at least partial sunshine and good visibility. It will be a little blustery Christmas Eve with winds around 10-15 mph but we've certainly encountered worse.
The last update discussed the possibility for snow late on Christmas Day into the 26th. We can upgrade the possibility for snowfall but we won't see any until late on the 26th. At that point, the minimal amount of cold air entrenched across interior New England should provide the overrunning surface necessary for a period of snowfall. Though snow could start as early as Thursday afternoon, it will likely be the Friday ski day which benefits the most from this. We have yet to see a total convergence of model output regarding this event but I'll call it a 60 percent chance we see a few inches Friday morning. At that point there are more diverging indications of what might occur with some indications that milder air could encroach on northern Vermont and other indications that interior New England remains cold through the start of the weekend. Following the mild start to the upcoming week, the biggest risk for a warm day and any mixed precipitation or rain appears to be either Friday 12/27 or early Saturday 12/28 though again, this is not yet conclusive.
If you follow the weather even just somewhat as religiously as I do, you might have heard about the persistent warmth in Alaska. Parts of central and northern Alaska have yet to record a below normal month in 2019 and have spent alarming amounts of time at or above record level temperatures. Over the next two weeks however, this recent trend will get thrown on its head as intense cold will settle over the state and remain there through the start of 2020. Typically, cold, arctic air in Alaska corresponds to a lack thereof in the more southern sections of North America and I expect this to be no exception. Alaskan cold also often corresponds to a more vigorous jet stream in the Pacific and ensembles continue to suggest an intensification here. Its looking more and more like an "Evil Empire" unfortunately and if I were to look the weather pattern in the eastern Pacific in isolation, I might expect a full blown blow torch across eastern North America. But the ensembles, as they have done for days, are not suggesting that at least as of yet.
There is a threat for the aforementioned warm day on the 27th or 28th but colder weather, possibly accompanied by some snowfall is possible on the 29th and 30th. After that, more mild air thwarting storminess appears likely with continued strong hints of some sort of major jet amplification along the east coast very early in 2020. Given the arctic cold in this pattern, any storm could push mixed precipitation, rain or warm weather into Vermont but at least we have a puncher's chance in a pattern where sometimes we would not.
Friday, December 20, 2019
Holiday to week to start out mild, but Xmas could finish with some snow followed by seasonable winter chill
The base is still thin but at least it looks like winter across the MRV this week. Snowfall totals could have been better and I have more or less settled on the idea that this won't be a December to remember. That said, I've seen worse.
Blue sky and terrific visibility is on the way for Saturday skiing or other outdoor adventures. And yes, its nice to get one of those days on the shortest day of the year. Temperatures should top out somewhere in the 20's after starting the day near 5. Not a bad day overall considering the minimal amount of wind. Most of the clouds and moisture associated with a warm front will pass north of the VT/Canadian border Saturday night. Though we could see some flurries, I would not expect much of an accumulation. Sunday will follow with more clouds and a bit more of a breeze but with milder temperatures of up near the freezing on the mountain and above freezing in low lying areas.
As promised, Christmas week will start out mild. That being said, the milder intrusion is short lived and is not expected to be accompanied by any rain and I thus give that a moral victory given east coast climatology. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's Monday afternoon but will fall back into the 30's Christmas Eve and back below freezing Christmas Day.
Not much of a chance for new snow on Monday and Tuesday obviously but a scenario does exist late on Xmas day into the 26th for something. I would still consider it a long shot given the limited amount of available moisture, but a stronger push of Canadian air is expected to advance into New England behind a weak wave of low pressure expected to pass just to our south. Aligning the track of this feature with the aforementioned limited area of moisture is a tough ask but not an impossible one. My fair value assessment has a roughly 40 percent chance for a few inches late Christmas Day into the 26th. A modest chance but not yet probable. Temperatures should end the holiday week at seasonable levels which is below freezing. Any clouds should also dissipate by later Thursday, setting the stage for a dry and somewhat sunshiney finish to the holiday week.
There has been a lot of dissension in the longer range outlook. I haven't been especially excited from the standpoint of cold, though the American Ensemble guidance has occasionally suggested we might move toward a cold pattern. On the whole however, the long range Arctic Oscillation outlook appears to be positive indicating a mostly "unblocked" high latitude jet stream. The outlook in the Pacific also suggests an even stronger jet in the Pacific which will further limit any southward advance of extreme arctic chill. It all seems pessimistic but we are entering the time of the year where it's not necessarily such a good thing to get overwhelmed with arctic air. By simply avoiding an all-out torch, it might be possible to garner a few intriguing weather situations out of this upcoming pattern. The subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream appears formidable and multiple simulations seem to suggest the possibility of a big east coast storm sometime during the first few days of 2020. Another 1-2 days of milder weather is also possible in this pattern. Though this appears most likely just before the New Years 2020 this is not etched in stone and models going out that far have shown varying scenarios.
Blue sky and terrific visibility is on the way for Saturday skiing or other outdoor adventures. And yes, its nice to get one of those days on the shortest day of the year. Temperatures should top out somewhere in the 20's after starting the day near 5. Not a bad day overall considering the minimal amount of wind. Most of the clouds and moisture associated with a warm front will pass north of the VT/Canadian border Saturday night. Though we could see some flurries, I would not expect much of an accumulation. Sunday will follow with more clouds and a bit more of a breeze but with milder temperatures of up near the freezing on the mountain and above freezing in low lying areas.
As promised, Christmas week will start out mild. That being said, the milder intrusion is short lived and is not expected to be accompanied by any rain and I thus give that a moral victory given east coast climatology. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's Monday afternoon but will fall back into the 30's Christmas Eve and back below freezing Christmas Day.
Not much of a chance for new snow on Monday and Tuesday obviously but a scenario does exist late on Xmas day into the 26th for something. I would still consider it a long shot given the limited amount of available moisture, but a stronger push of Canadian air is expected to advance into New England behind a weak wave of low pressure expected to pass just to our south. Aligning the track of this feature with the aforementioned limited area of moisture is a tough ask but not an impossible one. My fair value assessment has a roughly 40 percent chance for a few inches late Christmas Day into the 26th. A modest chance but not yet probable. Temperatures should end the holiday week at seasonable levels which is below freezing. Any clouds should also dissipate by later Thursday, setting the stage for a dry and somewhat sunshiney finish to the holiday week.
There has been a lot of dissension in the longer range outlook. I haven't been especially excited from the standpoint of cold, though the American Ensemble guidance has occasionally suggested we might move toward a cold pattern. On the whole however, the long range Arctic Oscillation outlook appears to be positive indicating a mostly "unblocked" high latitude jet stream. The outlook in the Pacific also suggests an even stronger jet in the Pacific which will further limit any southward advance of extreme arctic chill. It all seems pessimistic but we are entering the time of the year where it's not necessarily such a good thing to get overwhelmed with arctic air. By simply avoiding an all-out torch, it might be possible to garner a few intriguing weather situations out of this upcoming pattern. The subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream appears formidable and multiple simulations seem to suggest the possibility of a big east coast storm sometime during the first few days of 2020. Another 1-2 days of milder weather is also possible in this pattern. Though this appears most likely just before the New Years 2020 this is not etched in stone and models going out that far have shown varying scenarios.
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Wintry week to finish cold but some milder air has entered the forecast picture in the days leading up to Xmas
We endured the brief scare that our current December 17th storm might not deliver, but it has provided most of what was advertised and has restored some winter scenery to our beloved Vermont landscape. December will not go down as a particularly arctic month but the coldest weather of the month will nonetheless make its appearance, brought in by a potent jet impulse Wednesday evening. The disturbance will also bring snow showers and squalls to the northern Vermont high country just as the Wednesday ski day is winding down. The event will be short-lived, but a few good bursts of snow should provide 1-4 inches of wind driven snow to the high country around the MRV and possibly a bit more from Stowe northward to the Canadian border. The week is expected to finish on the dry but cold side with temperatures below zero Thursday and Friday morning in many places while afternoon readings are only in the single numbers Thursday and 15 on Friday.
Though Friday is expected to be pretty sunny across the region as a whole, the weekend will feature more clouds but with moderating temperatures. There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. On Sunday we could see temperatures get pretty close to the freezing mark and likely exceed across some of the low lying areas.
The pattern for Christmas week now looks pretty well-defined. Though I wouldn't describe it as terrible, it certainly doesn't look particularly ideal. Much of the country's unsettled weather will be focused on California and the southern Rockies. The San Juan Mountains appear to be in line for a extra merry Christmas in 2019. The weather east of the Mississippi River appears quite mild. Interior New England will be one of the final hold outs this weekend we too can expect at least a day of milder temperatures on the mountain. Fortunately it only appears to be a 24-36 hour occurrence (Monday into Christmas eve) and one not accompanied by a significant amount of mixed precipitation or rain.
As the week progresses, there are continued signs that the ridge in the jet stream responsible for the milder weather will weaken and allow colder air to sink southward into interior New England. The question relates to what actual weather will accompany this push of colder weather on the 26th and 27th of the month. Some of the aforementioned storminess out west appears likely to push eastward toward the upper Midwest. Might some of this moisture end up falling as some late-week or weekend (December 28-29) snow in Vermont ? Quite possibly but the pattern does not support any notion of a big storm. Beyond that, there are continued signs of both storminess across the country and cold air focused on the western United States. In the preseason outlook, I highlighted the blob of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific south of the Gulf of Alaska. For now it seems like a preferred location for a jet stream ridge which is not entirely ideal but again, we've seen worse patterns, especially around the holidays.
Though Friday is expected to be pretty sunny across the region as a whole, the weekend will feature more clouds but with moderating temperatures. There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. On Sunday we could see temperatures get pretty close to the freezing mark and likely exceed across some of the low lying areas.
The pattern for Christmas week now looks pretty well-defined. Though I wouldn't describe it as terrible, it certainly doesn't look particularly ideal. Much of the country's unsettled weather will be focused on California and the southern Rockies. The San Juan Mountains appear to be in line for a extra merry Christmas in 2019. The weather east of the Mississippi River appears quite mild. Interior New England will be one of the final hold outs this weekend we too can expect at least a day of milder temperatures on the mountain. Fortunately it only appears to be a 24-36 hour occurrence (Monday into Christmas eve) and one not accompanied by a significant amount of mixed precipitation or rain.
As the week progresses, there are continued signs that the ridge in the jet stream responsible for the milder weather will weaken and allow colder air to sink southward into interior New England. The question relates to what actual weather will accompany this push of colder weather on the 26th and 27th of the month. Some of the aforementioned storminess out west appears likely to push eastward toward the upper Midwest. Might some of this moisture end up falling as some late-week or weekend (December 28-29) snow in Vermont ? Quite possibly but the pattern does not support any notion of a big storm. Beyond that, there are continued signs of both storminess across the country and cold air focused on the western United States. In the preseason outlook, I highlighted the blob of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific south of the Gulf of Alaska. For now it seems like a preferred location for a jet stream ridge which is not entirely ideal but again, we've seen worse patterns, especially around the holidays.
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Can't promise anything epic over the next two weeks but it does look wintry with several natural snowfall opportunities
Snow showers across the northern Vermont high country Sunday will provide a small accumulation of snow, especially as one nears the Canadian border but it will fall well short of what is needed for a full scale replenishment. It was a really bad December week across all of Vermont and honestly I am just happy it's over. The upcoming week should feature dramatic improvements with temperatures staying in the sub-freezing territory, as advertised, along with two decent opportunities for natural snowfall.
Temperatures are expected to hover just below the freezing mark throughout a blustery Sunday across the high country before falling through the twenties and teens Sunday night. Winds are expected to subside somewhat by Monday morning and visibility should improve dramatically along with morning temperatures of near 10 and afternoon readings only in the 20's. The southern branch of the jet stream will deliver for us as needed, and provide the region with a garden variety snow event on Tuesday. Clouds should advance back into the region Monday night and snow should be falling across most of the state by daybreak Tuesday. Though the storm will successfully gather a modest amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it will remain a flat wave as the associated area of low pressure moves from the southern Pennsylvania border, quickly to the eastern tip of Long Island by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate snow for much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening should allow a healthy swatch of 5-10 inches of snow across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts across the central and southern Vermont high country. The MRV should get its fair share of this all powdery snow event as temperatures generally hover in the high teens.
There is a polar kicker that is expected to follow this southern branch feature on Wednesday. Unfortunately the two systems could never fully link and allow for some real east coast excitement. The consolation prize however isn't bad since snow showers should be enhanced by a favorable wind direction off Lake Champlain, especially Wednesday afternoon, evening and night. An additional 3-6 inches of elevation sensitive fluff in this time frame should make Thursday one of the better ski days of the season for much of northern Vermont in spite of some modest cold. Temperatures will spend much of Wednesday near the 20-degree mark but will be forced down near zero by Thursday morning and only rise to near 10 degrees Thursday afternoon with only limited amounts of very low-angled sunshine and stiff northwest winds. Friday should feature more sunshine, less wind and afternoon temperatures closer to 20.
The early part of our upcoming solstice weekend appears dry and could possibly feature a decent amounts of sun. The Sunday-Monday (Dec 22-23) time frame should feature some sort of east coast intrigue. Early indications suggest that the epicenter of action will be focused on areas south of Vermont and closer to the coast but the situation bears watching since the jet stream is expected to soften somewhat behind it which often leaves the door open for all sorts of unexpected scenarios.
Much of the United States can anticipate a relatively mild Christmas holiday this year. The two exceptions would be the ski country across the western U.S. and ski country across interior New England - that be us. Though it certainly doesn't appear to be intensely cold during the period between December 24-27, it does appear that conditions should remain wintry and northern New England will be one of those few places where snowfall is at least possible. Fingers crossed on that but I should think that would be considered a relatively satisfying piece of news all things considered. Onward and upward from here lets hope !
Temperatures are expected to hover just below the freezing mark throughout a blustery Sunday across the high country before falling through the twenties and teens Sunday night. Winds are expected to subside somewhat by Monday morning and visibility should improve dramatically along with morning temperatures of near 10 and afternoon readings only in the 20's. The southern branch of the jet stream will deliver for us as needed, and provide the region with a garden variety snow event on Tuesday. Clouds should advance back into the region Monday night and snow should be falling across most of the state by daybreak Tuesday. Though the storm will successfully gather a modest amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it will remain a flat wave as the associated area of low pressure moves from the southern Pennsylvania border, quickly to the eastern tip of Long Island by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate snow for much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening should allow a healthy swatch of 5-10 inches of snow across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts across the central and southern Vermont high country. The MRV should get its fair share of this all powdery snow event as temperatures generally hover in the high teens.
There is a polar kicker that is expected to follow this southern branch feature on Wednesday. Unfortunately the two systems could never fully link and allow for some real east coast excitement. The consolation prize however isn't bad since snow showers should be enhanced by a favorable wind direction off Lake Champlain, especially Wednesday afternoon, evening and night. An additional 3-6 inches of elevation sensitive fluff in this time frame should make Thursday one of the better ski days of the season for much of northern Vermont in spite of some modest cold. Temperatures will spend much of Wednesday near the 20-degree mark but will be forced down near zero by Thursday morning and only rise to near 10 degrees Thursday afternoon with only limited amounts of very low-angled sunshine and stiff northwest winds. Friday should feature more sunshine, less wind and afternoon temperatures closer to 20.
The early part of our upcoming solstice weekend appears dry and could possibly feature a decent amounts of sun. The Sunday-Monday (Dec 22-23) time frame should feature some sort of east coast intrigue. Early indications suggest that the epicenter of action will be focused on areas south of Vermont and closer to the coast but the situation bears watching since the jet stream is expected to soften somewhat behind it which often leaves the door open for all sorts of unexpected scenarios.
Much of the United States can anticipate a relatively mild Christmas holiday this year. The two exceptions would be the ski country across the western U.S. and ski country across interior New England - that be us. Though it certainly doesn't appear to be intensely cold during the period between December 24-27, it does appear that conditions should remain wintry and northern New England will be one of those few places where snowfall is at least possible. Fingers crossed on that but I should think that would be considered a relatively satisfying piece of news all things considered. Onward and upward from here lets hope !
Thursday, December 12, 2019
With Saturday's washout all but guaranteed, we can start focus on a better, colder looking next week
Best news I have relates to next week, when at the very least, it appears more likely that we immerse ourselves in a more extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. We can also continue to hope for some new snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday and perhaps beyond that as well. In the meantime, we have Saturday's event to get through. This, like the last event has more than likely become another sunk cost in a sunk week of weather. It is a strong area of low pressure, which will originate near the Gulf Coast and eventually track very close to if not over the state of Vermont. I remain convinced that a similar event a bit later in the season would provide way more intrigue but this storm will suck too much marine Atlantic Ocean warmth into interior New England and the lower troposphere will simply be too warm regardless of elevation. The MRV could receive a bit of light snow or mixed precipitation Friday evening with temperatures near the freezing mark but temperatures are expected to rise Friday night and remain in the middle or upper 30's throughout much of the day Saturday when steadier and sometimes heavier rain is falling. The rain should be done with by late Friday evening and an infusion of colder and a pool of instability aloft will allow for occasional snow across the high country early Sunday. Mad River Glen can expect a few inches from this but the near westerly winds favor better snows in the far northern Green Mountains.
Indeed, the view of next week is at least more satisfactory. It does start with temperatures which should stay below the freezing mark beginning Sunday night and persisting through Sunday, December 22. That's at least 7 days if you are keeping score at home. The snowfall outlook is starting to look more promising as well. Models are converging on idea of a southern branch storm gathering some moisture this upcoming Sunday and Monday and proceeding northeast toward the southern New England coastline. The storm lacks that one dynamic polar kick and may thus pass as a flat wave but will nonetheless have some moisture and should result in a modest 5-10 inch much needed snowfall.
I am actually more encouraged with how the outlook appears to be evolving later in the week. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. To put it in familiar words, rumors of the negative AO's demise have been greatly exaggerated. One of the more glaring results of this forecast "miss" has been the persistent intense cold over north-central Canada this week and continuing into next week. It has allowed the recent slow advance of ice in the Hudson Bay and Northwest Passages to become a fast advance and in the case of the Hudson Bay, should allow for a complete freeze-over in the next few days. All of this said, jet stream in the Pacific is still strengthy and is likely to prevent any of the aforementioned cold to make a full-scale mid-latitude intrusion but Vermont is far enough north I think to feel a bit of its impact. What I really like is the impact that the polar jet might have on Vermont's snowfall outlook later next week given its closer proximity. So in addition to what we hope will be some modest snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, we should see some additional snowfall later in the week and into the weekend from at least one clipper-like system.
Heading toward Christmas, the 3 ensemble packages continue to yield mixed messages. None indicate extreme cold but only the European is maintaining the positive PDO, intense Pacific jet stream. There is agreement on an active pattern with cold and storminess focused on the west but again, there is no strong indication of El Torchy conditions in the east. Temperatures look just slightly above normal and the pattern should remain active with at least one storm to talk about Christmas week (Dec 23-27). Weather twitter has been discussing the GFS ensembles today at length. They do show an enhancement of high latitude blocking after Christmas which could set the stage for a colder pattern in January but such a pattern continues to be beyond the foreseeable horizon for now and is certainly not supported by our other favorite simulators.
Indeed, the view of next week is at least more satisfactory. It does start with temperatures which should stay below the freezing mark beginning Sunday night and persisting through Sunday, December 22. That's at least 7 days if you are keeping score at home. The snowfall outlook is starting to look more promising as well. Models are converging on idea of a southern branch storm gathering some moisture this upcoming Sunday and Monday and proceeding northeast toward the southern New England coastline. The storm lacks that one dynamic polar kick and may thus pass as a flat wave but will nonetheless have some moisture and should result in a modest 5-10 inch much needed snowfall.
I am actually more encouraged with how the outlook appears to be evolving later in the week. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. To put it in familiar words, rumors of the negative AO's demise have been greatly exaggerated. One of the more glaring results of this forecast "miss" has been the persistent intense cold over north-central Canada this week and continuing into next week. It has allowed the recent slow advance of ice in the Hudson Bay and Northwest Passages to become a fast advance and in the case of the Hudson Bay, should allow for a complete freeze-over in the next few days. All of this said, jet stream in the Pacific is still strengthy and is likely to prevent any of the aforementioned cold to make a full-scale mid-latitude intrusion but Vermont is far enough north I think to feel a bit of its impact. What I really like is the impact that the polar jet might have on Vermont's snowfall outlook later next week given its closer proximity. So in addition to what we hope will be some modest snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, we should see some additional snowfall later in the week and into the weekend from at least one clipper-like system.
Heading toward Christmas, the 3 ensemble packages continue to yield mixed messages. None indicate extreme cold but only the European is maintaining the positive PDO, intense Pacific jet stream. There is agreement on an active pattern with cold and storminess focused on the west but again, there is no strong indication of El Torchy conditions in the east. Temperatures look just slightly above normal and the pattern should remain active with at least one storm to talk about Christmas week (Dec 23-27). Weather twitter has been discussing the GFS ensembles today at length. They do show an enhancement of high latitude blocking after Christmas which could set the stage for a colder pattern in January but such a pattern continues to be beyond the foreseeable horizon for now and is certainly not supported by our other favorite simulators.
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
No good news regarding weekend storm but next week does look better
Winter-like temps are ready to or have already (depending on when you read this update) returned to the MRV. We didn't receive a tremendous amount of rain but it certainly got quite mild and that was accompanied by a rather persistent southwesterly wind. Snowpack across the state took the expected hit and we will have to wait several days for significant amounts of natural snow to return. To put it plainly, this is simply a bad week for Vermont skiing but somewhat par for the course if one is to look at it from a December inVermont climatology perspective. That same perspective would also suggest that the weather failures of the current week would rid our system of such occurrences for the rest of the month. Time will tell if that is the case. As of know, the early look at Xmas week is mixed and could go in either direction.
I don't have any good news regarding the weekend. An entirely disappointing looking storm to say the least. Of particular frustration relates to the track of this potent, sub-tropical originating system, which appears destined to track somewhere over eastern New England (this is usually very good for us). The eventual track will certainly have an impact on where temperatures end up on Saturday but precipitation type will be predominantly rain. Perhaps if a similar storm should impact the region several weeks from we would see a more snowy result but the early maturation of this storm and the lack of a fresh supply of cold air will allow the still relatively warm Atlantic Ocean air to advance well into interior New England. We need to shave about 2 or 3 degrees off the entire lowest mile of the atmosphere to make to make the situation more interesting but that appears unlikely at this point. Rain or some freezing rain is likely to arrive in the morning on Saturday and continue for much of the day, possibly getting quite heavy for a time before abating sometime during the evening. Temperatures should hold steady Saturday in the middle to high 30's. There is a healthy cold pool of air associated with this system which will allow snow showers to return Sunday to the high country of Vermont along with gusty winds. Wind direction suggests the highest amounts of accumulating snow will be across the far north and maybe 1-3 inches at MRG.
The news does get better after that however. There is more activity in the southern branch of the jet stream next week and another storm appears likely to follow Saturday's only this one is likely to take a more favorable track and have more cold air to work with. I don't want to get folks too excited about this right now with models indicating varying results and rather strongly suggest, as of now, that the storm will remain at least slightly out of phase with some incoming polar energy during the middle of the week. At the very least however, there does appear to be some storm/snowfall potential Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Much of the entire week should also see predominantly sub-freezing temperatures although it might be a little premature to say that definitively.
The Christmas holiday outlook as of now appears mixed as mentioned. There continue to be indications of a strengthening jet stream in the Pacific quantified by a positive EPO. A warm signal is being indicated for a time across much of eastern North America in the days just prior to Christmas. That being said, that Pacific jet stream is expected to fall short of "evil empire" standards and the pattern is expected to remain stormy enough, particularly the southern branch of the stream, to keep the weather picture interesting. One thing we are unlikely to see for the rest of 2019 is a massive intrusion of intense arctic cold. The cold we do see will be much like the next few days - shortlived and isolated to the northern latitudes of the United States and not especially intense.
I don't have any good news regarding the weekend. An entirely disappointing looking storm to say the least. Of particular frustration relates to the track of this potent, sub-tropical originating system, which appears destined to track somewhere over eastern New England (this is usually very good for us). The eventual track will certainly have an impact on where temperatures end up on Saturday but precipitation type will be predominantly rain. Perhaps if a similar storm should impact the region several weeks from we would see a more snowy result but the early maturation of this storm and the lack of a fresh supply of cold air will allow the still relatively warm Atlantic Ocean air to advance well into interior New England. We need to shave about 2 or 3 degrees off the entire lowest mile of the atmosphere to make to make the situation more interesting but that appears unlikely at this point. Rain or some freezing rain is likely to arrive in the morning on Saturday and continue for much of the day, possibly getting quite heavy for a time before abating sometime during the evening. Temperatures should hold steady Saturday in the middle to high 30's. There is a healthy cold pool of air associated with this system which will allow snow showers to return Sunday to the high country of Vermont along with gusty winds. Wind direction suggests the highest amounts of accumulating snow will be across the far north and maybe 1-3 inches at MRG.
The news does get better after that however. There is more activity in the southern branch of the jet stream next week and another storm appears likely to follow Saturday's only this one is likely to take a more favorable track and have more cold air to work with. I don't want to get folks too excited about this right now with models indicating varying results and rather strongly suggest, as of now, that the storm will remain at least slightly out of phase with some incoming polar energy during the middle of the week. At the very least however, there does appear to be some storm/snowfall potential Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Much of the entire week should also see predominantly sub-freezing temperatures although it might be a little premature to say that definitively.
The Christmas holiday outlook as of now appears mixed as mentioned. There continue to be indications of a strengthening jet stream in the Pacific quantified by a positive EPO. A warm signal is being indicated for a time across much of eastern North America in the days just prior to Christmas. That being said, that Pacific jet stream is expected to fall short of "evil empire" standards and the pattern is expected to remain stormy enough, particularly the southern branch of the stream, to keep the weather picture interesting. One thing we are unlikely to see for the rest of 2019 is a massive intrusion of intense arctic cold. The cold we do see will be much like the next few days - shortlived and isolated to the northern latitudes of the United States and not especially intense.
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Short term outlook is bad and the outlook for upcoming weekend has deteriorated
I was very pleased to see an over-performance on Friday and Friday night and what looked to be a beautiful opener at MRG Saturday and some great wintry visibility Sunday. It won't be so beautiful Monday and Tuesday and unfortunately this will be the start of a less than stellar week on the mountain.
Warm air is poised to flood the state of Vermont Monday along with modest amounts of moisture. Precipitation that falls before about 10 am on Monday could be snow or a wintry mix of snow and sleet. Temperatures will surge toward the 40 degree mark by the late afternoon Monday and allow the period of precipitation in this time slot to be of the plain rain variety. Much of the rain associated with this mild surge of air will actually fall either late in the day Monday or Monday evening and we are only expecting about a third to a half of an inch of rain but the combination of the wet weather, high dewpoints and a persistent wind will do some serious damage to the varying levels of early season snowpack across the state. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's late in the afternoon Monday and remain steady overnight before surging up past 50 in valley locations early on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will should actually be precipitation-free and might feature sporadic amounts of blue sky. The cold front marking the end of the tropical abomination arrives late on Tuesday and temperatures are expected to nosedive back toward the freezing mark shortly after dark Tuesday evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front allowing the undercutting area of advancing cold to provide a platform for an area of snow Wednesday morning, but this zone of accumulating snow is largely expected to miss the state of Vermont and also steal lingering moisture from interior mountain locations.
Another disturbance associated with a more significant push of arctic cold will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday evening and night. High elevations of northern Vermont will pick up a very light accumulation of mostly less than 3 inches and yes, we will need a lot more than this to get us back in business following the meltdown. Wintry temperatures consisting of 5-15 degree overnights and twenties during the day will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will feature a slightly more moderate afternoon thanks to some sunshine.
The most disappointing aspect of this outlook has to do with the upcoming weekend. Yeah sure the next few days are bad but us avid skiers probably already considered that a "sunk cost" so to speak, but the next storm deteriorating into another toilet-flusher is a big let-down. As feared, this system will amplify too early across the Mississippi Delta region and flood much of the east coast with warm air. Lingering sub-freezing temperatures will likely provide for a period of mixed precipitation Satuday, but straight-up snow appears unlikely while heavy rain at some point during the weekend appears more likely. This storm, which is forecast to track over the Ohio River and up over Lake Erie might spread series amounts of snow into the U.P. of Michigan but certainly not over interior New England.
Colder weather will return again for Sunday, the 15th of December and this should begin a more promising stretch of weather. Some snowfall should accompany the return of this colder weather on the aforementioned Sunday and another weather system could bring some snow to the region either Monday or Tuesday. Beyond that the outlook can can be described as marginal. High latitude blocking in the jet stream appears absent and the jet stream in the Pacific appears to be getting stronger as we advance beyond the middle part of the month. This will certainly limit the availability of extreme cold across mid-latitude North America which ensembles certainly indicate as we head toward the solstice. That said, the pattern continues to look stormy and the long-wave jet stream pattern being indicated does not suggest any extended torchiness.
Overall, this is certainly a negative turn in the outlook going forward mainly having to do with the short term 7-day forecast for the upcoming week.
Warm air is poised to flood the state of Vermont Monday along with modest amounts of moisture. Precipitation that falls before about 10 am on Monday could be snow or a wintry mix of snow and sleet. Temperatures will surge toward the 40 degree mark by the late afternoon Monday and allow the period of precipitation in this time slot to be of the plain rain variety. Much of the rain associated with this mild surge of air will actually fall either late in the day Monday or Monday evening and we are only expecting about a third to a half of an inch of rain but the combination of the wet weather, high dewpoints and a persistent wind will do some serious damage to the varying levels of early season snowpack across the state. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's late in the afternoon Monday and remain steady overnight before surging up past 50 in valley locations early on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will should actually be precipitation-free and might feature sporadic amounts of blue sky. The cold front marking the end of the tropical abomination arrives late on Tuesday and temperatures are expected to nosedive back toward the freezing mark shortly after dark Tuesday evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front allowing the undercutting area of advancing cold to provide a platform for an area of snow Wednesday morning, but this zone of accumulating snow is largely expected to miss the state of Vermont and also steal lingering moisture from interior mountain locations.
Another disturbance associated with a more significant push of arctic cold will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday evening and night. High elevations of northern Vermont will pick up a very light accumulation of mostly less than 3 inches and yes, we will need a lot more than this to get us back in business following the meltdown. Wintry temperatures consisting of 5-15 degree overnights and twenties during the day will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will feature a slightly more moderate afternoon thanks to some sunshine.
The most disappointing aspect of this outlook has to do with the upcoming weekend. Yeah sure the next few days are bad but us avid skiers probably already considered that a "sunk cost" so to speak, but the next storm deteriorating into another toilet-flusher is a big let-down. As feared, this system will amplify too early across the Mississippi Delta region and flood much of the east coast with warm air. Lingering sub-freezing temperatures will likely provide for a period of mixed precipitation Satuday, but straight-up snow appears unlikely while heavy rain at some point during the weekend appears more likely. This storm, which is forecast to track over the Ohio River and up over Lake Erie might spread series amounts of snow into the U.P. of Michigan but certainly not over interior New England.
Colder weather will return again for Sunday, the 15th of December and this should begin a more promising stretch of weather. Some snowfall should accompany the return of this colder weather on the aforementioned Sunday and another weather system could bring some snow to the region either Monday or Tuesday. Beyond that the outlook can can be described as marginal. High latitude blocking in the jet stream appears absent and the jet stream in the Pacific appears to be getting stronger as we advance beyond the middle part of the month. This will certainly limit the availability of extreme cold across mid-latitude North America which ensembles certainly indicate as we head toward the solstice. That said, the pattern continues to look stormy and the long-wave jet stream pattern being indicated does not suggest any extended torchiness.
Overall, this is certainly a negative turn in the outlook going forward mainly having to do with the short term 7-day forecast for the upcoming week.
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Wintry opening day at Mad River Glen followed by an ugly looking thaw early next week
On the whole, the outlook looks somewhat positive through the winter solstice but it is weighed down substantially because of a very bad looking 48-hour stretch early next week. In the mean time, temperatures have remained below freezing and the mountains have picked up small amounts of fluffy snow this week. The arctic front late next week appears more substantial and includes a more well defined, albeit weak, area of low pressure that is expected to move from near Buffalo to Boston during the course of the day Friday. This is not an entirely bad forecast track at all for northern Vermont though models are suggesting that much of the snow that falls from this will be over the same area that maxed out on the last storm and not necessarily over northern Vermont. There are some old weather forecasting rules that are somewhat violated by this notion and would instead have us getting a 2-5 inch snow Friday but if we are to enslave ourselves to model output then the MRV would see a 1-2 inch event. It's pretty close yet again and worth watching the radar on Friday but it's a good bet that places a little farther south outperform the MRV again.
Opening day Saturday appears to be cold and blustery but not overwhelmingly so. Winds are likely to be in the 10-20 mph range for much of the day with clouds and some snow flurries to start and some sunshine and better visibility to finish. That good visibility should continue into Sunday and will include calm winds (until very late in the day) and temperatures rebounding toward 30 in the afternoon following a 5 degree morning.
There's no getting around the outlook for late Monday into Tuesday. It is an ugly looking torch and once it gets going, we can rest a little easier at missing out on the goodies December 1st and 2nd because much of that will be gone by Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the 40's by late Monday, accompanied by some rain during the evening and those above-freezing temperatures will persist Monday night into Tuesday, even rising into the 50's during the day. Occasional rain, high dewpoints and a mild wind will do considerable damage to early season snow cover and leave lots of bare ground showing by the time colder air arrives Wednesday morning. The cold air late in the week looks somewhat intense and should be accompanied by snow showers, but we will have work to do in terms of recovering what will be lost.
The better part of the outlook involves the stretch beginning after the coming thaw December 11th and persisting at least through the solstice. Though there continues to be an incredible amount of disagreement in the forecast ensembles, none of the scenarios involve a torch. The American ensembles indicate a simply beautiful looking weather pattern including a nice ridge in the jet stream over western Canada and an undercutting sub-tropical jet stream (split flow) which would keep the storm threat alive. The European Ensembles want no part of any ridge in western Canada and show a tighter Pacific jet stream. This version would certainly be milder than the picture being painted by the American ensembles but not overwhelmingly warm and still potentially stormy If I had a concern during these 10 days, it involves a potential storm around December 13-14 amplifying too aggressively in the southern plains. Such an occurrence reduces the snowfall potential and raises the mixed precipitation potential.
Opening day Saturday appears to be cold and blustery but not overwhelmingly so. Winds are likely to be in the 10-20 mph range for much of the day with clouds and some snow flurries to start and some sunshine and better visibility to finish. That good visibility should continue into Sunday and will include calm winds (until very late in the day) and temperatures rebounding toward 30 in the afternoon following a 5 degree morning.
There's no getting around the outlook for late Monday into Tuesday. It is an ugly looking torch and once it gets going, we can rest a little easier at missing out on the goodies December 1st and 2nd because much of that will be gone by Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the 40's by late Monday, accompanied by some rain during the evening and those above-freezing temperatures will persist Monday night into Tuesday, even rising into the 50's during the day. Occasional rain, high dewpoints and a mild wind will do considerable damage to early season snow cover and leave lots of bare ground showing by the time colder air arrives Wednesday morning. The cold air late in the week looks somewhat intense and should be accompanied by snow showers, but we will have work to do in terms of recovering what will be lost.
The better part of the outlook involves the stretch beginning after the coming thaw December 11th and persisting at least through the solstice. Though there continues to be an incredible amount of disagreement in the forecast ensembles, none of the scenarios involve a torch. The American ensembles indicate a simply beautiful looking weather pattern including a nice ridge in the jet stream over western Canada and an undercutting sub-tropical jet stream (split flow) which would keep the storm threat alive. The European Ensembles want no part of any ridge in western Canada and show a tighter Pacific jet stream. This version would certainly be milder than the picture being painted by the American ensembles but not overwhelmingly warm and still potentially stormy If I had a concern during these 10 days, it involves a potential storm around December 13-14 amplifying too aggressively in the southern plains. Such an occurrence reduces the snowfall potential and raises the mixed precipitation potential.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Outlook through the solstice certainly not terrible in spite of recent swing and miss
Albany has spent much of the last decade as Mother Nature's favorite snow hole. Not with this most recent storm however and unfortunately it came at our expense as northern Vermont was shut out in spots and on the very short end of the snow stick in the MRV. Here is the map and thanks to the great work of Tomer Borg (@burgwx) for putting these together.
We will continue to enjoy sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain through at least Sunday morning (Dec 8) though valley locations may inch above freezing this Wednesday and Thursday. The snow forecast appears relatively uneventful however. There are two disturbances capable of bringing some snow to northern Vermont but moisture is sparse and we will be heavily dependent on whatever Lake Champlain can provide for us. The first Wednesday night will provide us with about 1-3 and the second arrives as an arctic boundary early Friday appears especially dry and might only be good for a dusting to an inch. Saturday appears to be an excellent visibility day with temperatures in the single numbers in the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. A milder breeze later Sunday will push temperatures toward the freezing mark in spite of clouds.
The longer range outlook looks a bit muddled today but the muddling is in fact an improvement from two days ago when it appeared as if a tightened Pacific jet stream would simply prevail over everything. We have a mild stretch of weather to contend with early next week, December 9th and 10th with some accompanying wet weather on Tuesday. It is possible that a one day torch pushes temperatures into the 50's during this time frame but it will be short lived with winter making an abrupt return Wednesday.
Both major set of forecast ensembles have moved toward the development of a block in the stream north of Alaska. High latitude blocking of any sort was glaringly absent from the outlook a few days ago and this aforementioned feature will counter a modest tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. It could very well set the stage for an interesting middle of the month in terms of snow potential though this remains more than a week away. After December 16th, these same forecast ensembles diverge dramatically with the American version showing a full scale ridge west / trough east positive PNA regime while the European counterpart is a lot more mixed. One can just simply look at how the two forecast packages are handling the outlook in Alaska and can easily gauge how different they are.
There is good news in that dissension however since a full-scale torch does not appear to be part of any scenario with the exception of the two day stretch of mild temps early next week.
We will continue to enjoy sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain through at least Sunday morning (Dec 8) though valley locations may inch above freezing this Wednesday and Thursday. The snow forecast appears relatively uneventful however. There are two disturbances capable of bringing some snow to northern Vermont but moisture is sparse and we will be heavily dependent on whatever Lake Champlain can provide for us. The first Wednesday night will provide us with about 1-3 and the second arrives as an arctic boundary early Friday appears especially dry and might only be good for a dusting to an inch. Saturday appears to be an excellent visibility day with temperatures in the single numbers in the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. A milder breeze later Sunday will push temperatures toward the freezing mark in spite of clouds.
The longer range outlook looks a bit muddled today but the muddling is in fact an improvement from two days ago when it appeared as if a tightened Pacific jet stream would simply prevail over everything. We have a mild stretch of weather to contend with early next week, December 9th and 10th with some accompanying wet weather on Tuesday. It is possible that a one day torch pushes temperatures into the 50's during this time frame but it will be short lived with winter making an abrupt return Wednesday.
Both major set of forecast ensembles have moved toward the development of a block in the stream north of Alaska. High latitude blocking of any sort was glaringly absent from the outlook a few days ago and this aforementioned feature will counter a modest tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. It could very well set the stage for an interesting middle of the month in terms of snow potential though this remains more than a week away. After December 16th, these same forecast ensembles diverge dramatically with the American version showing a full scale ridge west / trough east positive PNA regime while the European counterpart is a lot more mixed. One can just simply look at how the two forecast packages are handling the outlook in Alaska and can easily gauge how different they are.
There is good news in that dissension however since a full-scale torch does not appear to be part of any scenario with the exception of the two day stretch of mild temps early next week.
Saturday, November 30, 2019
More finely tuned details for December 1-2 storm
No need to beat around the bush with a big storm bearing down the east coast. By now, I had hoped we would have reached some sort of decisiveness regarding this event but for now, it remains very much on the fence between a garden variety, easily forgotten weather system and a more memorable early December winter storm. The pieces are coming together as expected with the storm, as of Saturday, spinning its way through the upper Midwest. The emergence of a coastal low pressure center by Sunday evening will ultimately make this a big east coast precipitation producer but the track of this coastal system is expected to stay south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod, at least for the time being. This would keep the heaviest zone of snow south of the northern half of Vermont, especially since the well-established jet stream level support for this storm, otherwise referred to as an upper level low, is expected to move due east and take the east coast "escape hatch" out over the Delmarva. This feature is then expected to take a turn northeastward but it would be too late for the Mad River Valley to procure an epic snow event; instead, it would be a smaller event. It is very close however and between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, models have been suggesting that the zone of best snow would be a little farther north. Southern Vermont is in fact in one of those "best zone" areas and if the storm would track another 50 miles farther north, it could really turn the outcome. So I can throw out some expectations as it stands now and simply throw it out there that things could certainly change for the better.
So with the big picture situation established the particulars are as follows. Snow should begin Sunday evening and fall moderately for a time before midnight. As the coastal low pressure center intensifies and assuming it tracks as predicted, the precipitation will consolidate over southern and central New England and the snow will dissipate somewhat over northern Vermont. By Monday morning, the zone of heaviest snow is expected to be situated over the Catskills, extreme NE Pennsylvania and eventually extending into southeast New Jersey. As both the surface and upper level features associated with this big east coast storm move northeast, the heavier snow will also push northeastward and again impact much of Vermont, especially the southern half of the state. Mad River Glen will get some of this as well with the heaviest snow falling Monday afternoon and evening. Total snowfall with this storm track is likely to be in the 8-16 inch territory. Snowfall totals could reach two feet over the high country of southern Vermont and certainly over the Catskills of New York state. The intensity of the storm will certainly allow for very blustery conditions through Tuesday.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to continue for the balance of the week but significant snow is unlikely. Flurries are expected to continue through Tuesday and weather disturbance passing to the region's south will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday night and those will continue into Thursday. A more intense shot of arctic chill is expected to arrive Friday evening and with that could come some more light snow or snow showers through early Saturday.
The longer range outlook, beyond next weekend looks more mediocre as of now. The two most glaring things is the lack of high latitude blocking quantified by a rising AO index. The EPO, which for much of November remained largely negative and was defined by a loose Pacific Jet, will neutralize, allowing the Pacific jet to become more active. These two changes will limit the influence of arctic cold in mid-latitude North America. That said, there are no indications we are moving into full blown "el torchy" mode. I would expect 2-3 fairly mild days between December 8th and 18th which is not atypical in a Vermont December. The pattern also continues to look stormy and snowfall will thus remain a possibility in spite of a more zonal jet stream pattern.
So with the big picture situation established the particulars are as follows. Snow should begin Sunday evening and fall moderately for a time before midnight. As the coastal low pressure center intensifies and assuming it tracks as predicted, the precipitation will consolidate over southern and central New England and the snow will dissipate somewhat over northern Vermont. By Monday morning, the zone of heaviest snow is expected to be situated over the Catskills, extreme NE Pennsylvania and eventually extending into southeast New Jersey. As both the surface and upper level features associated with this big east coast storm move northeast, the heavier snow will also push northeastward and again impact much of Vermont, especially the southern half of the state. Mad River Glen will get some of this as well with the heaviest snow falling Monday afternoon and evening. Total snowfall with this storm track is likely to be in the 8-16 inch territory. Snowfall totals could reach two feet over the high country of southern Vermont and certainly over the Catskills of New York state. The intensity of the storm will certainly allow for very blustery conditions through Tuesday.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to continue for the balance of the week but significant snow is unlikely. Flurries are expected to continue through Tuesday and weather disturbance passing to the region's south will spread some snow showers into the state Wednesday night and those will continue into Thursday. A more intense shot of arctic chill is expected to arrive Friday evening and with that could come some more light snow or snow showers through early Saturday.
The longer range outlook, beyond next weekend looks more mediocre as of now. The two most glaring things is the lack of high latitude blocking quantified by a rising AO index. The EPO, which for much of November remained largely negative and was defined by a loose Pacific Jet, will neutralize, allowing the Pacific jet to become more active. These two changes will limit the influence of arctic cold in mid-latitude North America. That said, there are no indications we are moving into full blown "el torchy" mode. I would expect 2-3 fairly mild days between December 8th and 18th which is not atypical in a Vermont December. The pattern also continues to look stormy and snowfall will thus remain a possibility in spite of a more zonal jet stream pattern.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Upcoming week is very active and December 1st and 2nd looks especially interesting
With the seasonal outlook delivered, it is time to quickly shift gears and talk about what is an active looking week of weather even if it's not especially cold. We are about to finish the coldest November so far this century, colder even than last year's Snowvember. Much of the arctic air responsible for this very cold month has retreated an active jet stream is poised to deliver two major weather systems to the east coast, both of which are likely to be elevation sensitive but significant events - especially #2.
The storm responsible for over a foot of snow early Tuesday over portions of the Colorado front range will move northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes bringing a push of milder temperatures up the eastern seaboard. For a time, this milder air appeared also headed for Vermont but a re-aligning polar jet stream in Canada will help turn this storm eastward preventing the state from getting blow-torched. It will be warm enough for precipitation to begin as rain up and down many of the green mountains, even at the highest elevations but as we head toward the evening precipitation will begin changing to snow at the summits. During the overnight hours, we should see some snow even in the lower valleys while the ski areas receive 4-8 inches. Light snow should persist over the high country for a decent portion of Thanksgiving day as well with temperatures just below the freezing mark. This basically means that much of what falls Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day will be pretty wet, except above at least 3000 feet.
A moderated polar air mass will build across the state late Thursday into Friday drying it out and providing a couple of days of sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Friday will be a bit on the blustery side, Saturday will be relatively calm. Both days should feature temperatures below the freezing mark throughout the day.
While the Thanksgiving event was a storm that originated in the southern Rockies, the storm poised to impact the east coast in the Dec 1-3 time frame is a powerful area of jet energy that will slowly migrate its way into California in the coming days, bringing heavy snow to a huge swath of heavy snow to a broad area of western ski country (both north and south) and proceed into the northern plains this upcoming weekend. Under many circumstances the storm would become a spent force while occluding across the north-central part of the country but the jet stream is poised to re-amplify across the east coast setting the east coast snowfall potential through the roof. The fresh supply of cold air is somewhat lacking, as it often is in early December, but the interior high country is positioned extremely well for a very big event given the right track. We've seen some good consistency from the European model the last several runs which makes me extremely optimistic. The Canadian model is also on board as of midday Tuesday but the American did shift the track of this storm pretty far south. In any case, the event remains 5-6 days off so we can't quite lock it in yet.
Normal early December temperatures will follow in the wake of this storm, whether we get the full impact or not. Some light snow is again possible later in that week.
Glancing toward the middle of December, the pattern does not appear arctic but not torchy either. A positive Arctic Oscillation is likely to keep wintry weather combined to Canada and the far northern latitudes of the US. Fortunately Vermont makes the cut there so wintry conditions remain possible through the 15th .
The storm responsible for over a foot of snow early Tuesday over portions of the Colorado front range will move northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes bringing a push of milder temperatures up the eastern seaboard. For a time, this milder air appeared also headed for Vermont but a re-aligning polar jet stream in Canada will help turn this storm eastward preventing the state from getting blow-torched. It will be warm enough for precipitation to begin as rain up and down many of the green mountains, even at the highest elevations but as we head toward the evening precipitation will begin changing to snow at the summits. During the overnight hours, we should see some snow even in the lower valleys while the ski areas receive 4-8 inches. Light snow should persist over the high country for a decent portion of Thanksgiving day as well with temperatures just below the freezing mark. This basically means that much of what falls Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day will be pretty wet, except above at least 3000 feet.
A moderated polar air mass will build across the state late Thursday into Friday drying it out and providing a couple of days of sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Friday will be a bit on the blustery side, Saturday will be relatively calm. Both days should feature temperatures below the freezing mark throughout the day.
While the Thanksgiving event was a storm that originated in the southern Rockies, the storm poised to impact the east coast in the Dec 1-3 time frame is a powerful area of jet energy that will slowly migrate its way into California in the coming days, bringing heavy snow to a huge swath of heavy snow to a broad area of western ski country (both north and south) and proceed into the northern plains this upcoming weekend. Under many circumstances the storm would become a spent force while occluding across the north-central part of the country but the jet stream is poised to re-amplify across the east coast setting the east coast snowfall potential through the roof. The fresh supply of cold air is somewhat lacking, as it often is in early December, but the interior high country is positioned extremely well for a very big event given the right track. We've seen some good consistency from the European model the last several runs which makes me extremely optimistic. The Canadian model is also on board as of midday Tuesday but the American did shift the track of this storm pretty far south. In any case, the event remains 5-6 days off so we can't quite lock it in yet.
Normal early December temperatures will follow in the wake of this storm, whether we get the full impact or not. Some light snow is again possible later in that week.
Glancing toward the middle of December, the pattern does not appear arctic but not torchy either. A positive Arctic Oscillation is likely to keep wintry weather combined to Canada and the far northern latitudes of the US. Fortunately Vermont makes the cut there so wintry conditions remain possible through the 15th .
Monday, November 25, 2019
Can't really complain if we get more of the same ! Winter 2019-20 has many of the same 2018-19 characteristics
2019-2020 marks the 16th year of weather blogging for Mad River Glen, a sweet sixteen of sorts. Though I am proud of the duration, what is more remarkable is taking a step back to realize all the changes that have occurred relating to weather dissemination online. Back in 2004 it was a new thing, now it is a very "evolved" thing. Raw data is more readily available, model data has improved and become more readily available, many amateur weather fanatics have fined tune their skill sets and have become excellent resources (some have not but I like to keep it positive) and social media happened and it really became crazy. Yet our beloved weather blog stays mostly the same again, retaining its look and format much like Mad River Glen, a place that truly does skiing justice by staying true to its best traditions.
With all that said however, I am ready to take this whole thing off "blog.spot". If there are web development people that can help me do that, send me an email.
Another winter is upon us and yet another winter outlook leads the way. With that comes the usual disclaimer, proclaiming how utterly unreliable these long term outlooks are. I can actually claim to have graded out fairly decently on temperatures over the many years, but snowfall has been an up and down experience and I can promise that will continue. Adding to that disclaimer is the promise that if I truly find a reason to be pessimistic, it will be conveyed. Some sugarcoating can be expected because I like to keep conform to the optimistic prevailing tone of the blog but bad news is still important news and is always included on the blog, as uninvited as it certainly is.
ENSO/PDO
I am going to combine our yearly examination of ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation into one section this year. These two variables enjoy an imperfect relationship with each other, meaning that positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) ENSO events are usually associated with a PDO of a similar positive or negative sign. "Usually" however is not synomous with "always" and this appears to be one of those years, much like last year, where the signs will differ. Most importantly regarding El Nino, there were repeated (same as last year) fears that we were moving toward a more signifcant El Nino this autumn. Just like last year however, those fears have abated. SST's in those critical equatorial regions of the Pacific strengthened toward a moderate El Nino situation for a time but have weakened in recent weeks and forecasts going forward don't indicate that a big El Nino is unlikely. From our perspective that relagates ENSO to a more tertiary paramater in the equation though not a non-factor entirely.
Meanwhile the PDO, which appeared to be trending toward a positive phase earlier this year, has taken an autumnal plunge back into negative territory. The PDO describes the more general configuration of sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific while ENSO refers to the region around the equator. Most interesting is the large red blob south of the Gulf of Alaska which appears to be the most dominant anomalous feature in the Pacific from a sea surface temperature standpoint.
So we have differing signs on the ENSO/PDO front, somewhat like what we had last year, which can be argued was one of the strongest Vermont ski seasons of the decade. When I saw this evolve, once again, it was my hope that I could glean a more clear cut cause and effect relationship from all this but saying that would be a reach. 1965-66, 1968-69, 1975-1976 and last year were all either very good or excellent snow years on the mountain. 1991-92 and 1994-95 were not. 4-2 isn't bad but not overwhelming. The large blog of SST warmth south of the Gulf of Alaska is probably the most disconcerting element of the outlook as a whole. It's stronger than the same feature last year and capable of tightening the Pacific Jet and limiting negative EPO episodes (such as the one we just experienced) and thus the amount of arctic air across mid-laititude North America. Later in the outlook, I will focus on a different but perhaps equally important SST feature that might counter that for the early part of the upcoming winter.
Land Area Snow Expansion
The expansion of snowcover has been very impressive once again in October across the northern latitudes. The arctic has made a lot of news, as well it should, for the dwindling amounts of sea ice that have been observed late in the summer or early in the autumn, and the impact that it's had on various, though sparsely populated climate zones. In this analysis, we are looking more specifically at land areas and how snowcover is differing from the near 50-year mean. So while sea ice continues to make news by continuing to melt away, the last 7 October's have featured a very strong expansion of snow cover, 3 of which, including this most recent October, have been over a full standard deviation above this 50 year mean of 18.51 millions of square KM. There are obvious limitations to a 50-year data set but the recent trends certainly begs the question of how might the expansion of open water in the arctic be impacting this data. I am no climatologist and would not pretend to be able to answer this question better than some, but at this point I have to guess that there is an impact. Keeping our proverbial eye on the ball however, the rapid expansion of snow cover this October is a positive as far as cold air "pooling efficiency" is concerned and would suggest that arctic air will be a powerful ally this winter, as it was for much of the winter last year, even when the overall jet stream pattern was not.
Chukchi Sea
From a bigger picture standpoint, the loss of sea ice is not in any way, a positive in the long term. It's hard to imagine the impact on our Nothern Hemisphere winter, as a whole if, 100 or so years from now, the arctic is struggling re-freeze as opposed the typical ritual of expanding to areas such as the Hudson Bay, the Bering Sea or the Baffin Bay. There can be little doubt we are headed in that direction. In the near term, it has been the Chukchi Sea which has raised some alarms this year because of the exceedingly slow rate of autumn ice expansion. Zack Labe is a terrific follow on twitter, handle -@Zlabe, for all things arctic sea ice. He and many others have been monitoring and reporting on the unprecented (in recorded history) sea ice situation in the Chukchi Sea which is a small subset of arctic water north of the Bering Straight but part of the larger Arctic Ocean. Though the loss of ice here underscores a larger overall (and not a good) trend regarding sea ice it has created a large area of warm ocean water in a key location. Can such a feature have an impact on the prevailing weather pattern by encouraging a high latitude jet stream block in such a location. If so, it would support some of the prevailing theories that exist regarding the effects of climate change in relation to redefining pathways of arctic cold and sustaining prevailing weather patterns for a longer duration than they might otherwise, both good and bad. I am not skeptical about the impacts of anomalous ocean water but I remain a little skeptical of statements such as the one I made above. I understand the logic certainly but would like to see more data.
I understand there is a lot of overly scientific hypothesizing in the above two paragraphs. From the standpoint of our winter outlook, the expansion of snow and ice is obviosly a good thing for our winter , the Chukchi Sea ice anomaly certainly could be a good thing for our upcoming winter and this would counter the other large area of warm water south of the Gulf of Alaska which I do not consider to be such a good thing.
Atmospheric "Tells"
In a final bit of analysis, I would like to stay true to more recent tradition and spend some time discussing possible atmospheric "tells" - the phrase of course borrowed from common poker lingo. There has been quite a bit of anomalous weather over the past few months across North America, particularly anomalous cold. In October, a large area of anomalous cold focused itself over western North America and represented one of the largest areas of colder than average temperatures across the entire globe. In November, this area shifted eastward thanks largely to a very negative EPO (weakened Pacific Jet). Much of the Great Lakes region, eastward to Vermont are in the midst of one of the coldest November's ever recorded. It will likely fall short of the coldest thanks to a milder final 10 days of the month but could still be in the top 5 or 10 cold Novembers. What I find to be especially noteworthy is the intensity of the recent cold outbreaks, particularly the ability to reach daily anomalies of 25 and even 30 degree below normal over mid-latitude sections of North America. This first happened in the Rocky Mountain region in October and more recently over the Great Lakes in November. If the atmosphere is capable of aligning once to produce such outcomes it indicates the potential for a repeat later in the year. Were it not for the negative PDO and specifically some of the SST anomalies in the Pacific associated with it, I would probably be willing to go "all in" (more poker lingo) on a Polar Vortex style 1976-77 or 2013-2014 winter.
Summary/Outlook 2019-20
If you're smart and skipped down to this paragraph, well done ! Our little collection of variables that typically contribute to the winter outlook look, largely, very much the same as they did at this time last year. El Nino is present but, at the more preferable subdued intensity. We had a very healthy expansion of hemispheric land-area snow. We've been able to exhibit the ability to produce both sustained and intense periods of cold even early this season and I might mention that this rather impressive outbreak of November cold has helped to cool both the Great Lakes aggregate and the immediate waters off the northeast coast. Very much like last year, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will enter the winter season in negative territory which is unique during any kind of El Nino, even the weaker variety. The nature of this particular negative PDO is the one big concern because the most prevalent associated feature is the aforementioned warm blob south of the Gulf of Alaska. So while I think the upcoming winter will exhibit some similarities to the very exciting 2018-19 season, we will experience 1-2 extended bouts of adverse conditions lasting a couple of weeks. But although the PDO is a net-negative as far as being a force for sustaining cold, it will keep the storm track from going too far south. This will, again make interior New England one of the more favored locations for heavy snows, at least along the east coast. This means another year of what I think will be above average snowfall and I have a funny feeling that a healthy chunk of that snowfall comes in the upcoming month of December (we will just see about that) ! Temperatures last year during the ski months averaged 2-3 degrees below average and we managed to freeze Lake Champlain for the third time this decade. In spite of one of the coldest November's since at least 1996, I don't think the upcoming winter will feature those kind of temperatures. Instead, I would expect temperatures closer to normal overall which means we are unlikely to see the sustained blowtorch conditions that we saw during the Super Nino of 2015-16 or the snow-torch winter that followed in 2016-17. With that, let the blogging efforts begin for another season, I hope it's a good one for everyone.
With all that said however, I am ready to take this whole thing off "blog.spot". If there are web development people that can help me do that, send me an email.
Another winter is upon us and yet another winter outlook leads the way. With that comes the usual disclaimer, proclaiming how utterly unreliable these long term outlooks are. I can actually claim to have graded out fairly decently on temperatures over the many years, but snowfall has been an up and down experience and I can promise that will continue. Adding to that disclaimer is the promise that if I truly find a reason to be pessimistic, it will be conveyed. Some sugarcoating can be expected because I like to keep conform to the optimistic prevailing tone of the blog but bad news is still important news and is always included on the blog, as uninvited as it certainly is.
ENSO/PDO
I am going to combine our yearly examination of ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation into one section this year. These two variables enjoy an imperfect relationship with each other, meaning that positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) ENSO events are usually associated with a PDO of a similar positive or negative sign. "Usually" however is not synomous with "always" and this appears to be one of those years, much like last year, where the signs will differ. Most importantly regarding El Nino, there were repeated (same as last year) fears that we were moving toward a more signifcant El Nino this autumn. Just like last year however, those fears have abated. SST's in those critical equatorial regions of the Pacific strengthened toward a moderate El Nino situation for a time but have weakened in recent weeks and forecasts going forward don't indicate that a big El Nino is unlikely. From our perspective that relagates ENSO to a more tertiary paramater in the equation though not a non-factor entirely.
Meanwhile the PDO, which appeared to be trending toward a positive phase earlier this year, has taken an autumnal plunge back into negative territory. The PDO describes the more general configuration of sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific while ENSO refers to the region around the equator. Most interesting is the large red blob south of the Gulf of Alaska which appears to be the most dominant anomalous feature in the Pacific from a sea surface temperature standpoint.
So we have differing signs on the ENSO/PDO front, somewhat like what we had last year, which can be argued was one of the strongest Vermont ski seasons of the decade. When I saw this evolve, once again, it was my hope that I could glean a more clear cut cause and effect relationship from all this but saying that would be a reach. 1965-66, 1968-69, 1975-1976 and last year were all either very good or excellent snow years on the mountain. 1991-92 and 1994-95 were not. 4-2 isn't bad but not overwhelming. The large blog of SST warmth south of the Gulf of Alaska is probably the most disconcerting element of the outlook as a whole. It's stronger than the same feature last year and capable of tightening the Pacific Jet and limiting negative EPO episodes (such as the one we just experienced) and thus the amount of arctic air across mid-laititude North America. Later in the outlook, I will focus on a different but perhaps equally important SST feature that might counter that for the early part of the upcoming winter.
Chukchi Sea
From a bigger picture standpoint, the loss of sea ice is not in any way, a positive in the long term. It's hard to imagine the impact on our Nothern Hemisphere winter, as a whole if, 100 or so years from now, the arctic is struggling re-freeze as opposed the typical ritual of expanding to areas such as the Hudson Bay, the Bering Sea or the Baffin Bay. There can be little doubt we are headed in that direction. In the near term, it has been the Chukchi Sea which has raised some alarms this year because of the exceedingly slow rate of autumn ice expansion. Zack Labe is a terrific follow on twitter, handle -@Zlabe, for all things arctic sea ice. He and many others have been monitoring and reporting on the unprecented (in recorded history) sea ice situation in the Chukchi Sea which is a small subset of arctic water north of the Bering Straight but part of the larger Arctic Ocean. Though the loss of ice here underscores a larger overall (and not a good) trend regarding sea ice it has created a large area of warm ocean water in a key location. Can such a feature have an impact on the prevailing weather pattern by encouraging a high latitude jet stream block in such a location. If so, it would support some of the prevailing theories that exist regarding the effects of climate change in relation to redefining pathways of arctic cold and sustaining prevailing weather patterns for a longer duration than they might otherwise, both good and bad. I am not skeptical about the impacts of anomalous ocean water but I remain a little skeptical of statements such as the one I made above. I understand the logic certainly but would like to see more data.
I understand there is a lot of overly scientific hypothesizing in the above two paragraphs. From the standpoint of our winter outlook, the expansion of snow and ice is obviosly a good thing for our winter , the Chukchi Sea ice anomaly certainly could be a good thing for our upcoming winter and this would counter the other large area of warm water south of the Gulf of Alaska which I do not consider to be such a good thing.
Atmospheric "Tells"
In a final bit of analysis, I would like to stay true to more recent tradition and spend some time discussing possible atmospheric "tells" - the phrase of course borrowed from common poker lingo. There has been quite a bit of anomalous weather over the past few months across North America, particularly anomalous cold. In October, a large area of anomalous cold focused itself over western North America and represented one of the largest areas of colder than average temperatures across the entire globe. In November, this area shifted eastward thanks largely to a very negative EPO (weakened Pacific Jet). Much of the Great Lakes region, eastward to Vermont are in the midst of one of the coldest November's ever recorded. It will likely fall short of the coldest thanks to a milder final 10 days of the month but could still be in the top 5 or 10 cold Novembers. What I find to be especially noteworthy is the intensity of the recent cold outbreaks, particularly the ability to reach daily anomalies of 25 and even 30 degree below normal over mid-latitude sections of North America. This first happened in the Rocky Mountain region in October and more recently over the Great Lakes in November. If the atmosphere is capable of aligning once to produce such outcomes it indicates the potential for a repeat later in the year. Were it not for the negative PDO and specifically some of the SST anomalies in the Pacific associated with it, I would probably be willing to go "all in" (more poker lingo) on a Polar Vortex style 1976-77 or 2013-2014 winter.
Summary/Outlook 2019-20
If you're smart and skipped down to this paragraph, well done ! Our little collection of variables that typically contribute to the winter outlook look, largely, very much the same as they did at this time last year. El Nino is present but, at the more preferable subdued intensity. We had a very healthy expansion of hemispheric land-area snow. We've been able to exhibit the ability to produce both sustained and intense periods of cold even early this season and I might mention that this rather impressive outbreak of November cold has helped to cool both the Great Lakes aggregate and the immediate waters off the northeast coast. Very much like last year, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will enter the winter season in negative territory which is unique during any kind of El Nino, even the weaker variety. The nature of this particular negative PDO is the one big concern because the most prevalent associated feature is the aforementioned warm blob south of the Gulf of Alaska. So while I think the upcoming winter will exhibit some similarities to the very exciting 2018-19 season, we will experience 1-2 extended bouts of adverse conditions lasting a couple of weeks. But although the PDO is a net-negative as far as being a force for sustaining cold, it will keep the storm track from going too far south. This will, again make interior New England one of the more favored locations for heavy snows, at least along the east coast. This means another year of what I think will be above average snowfall and I have a funny feeling that a healthy chunk of that snowfall comes in the upcoming month of December (we will just see about that) ! Temperatures last year during the ski months averaged 2-3 degrees below average and we managed to freeze Lake Champlain for the third time this decade. In spite of one of the coldest November's since at least 1996, I don't think the upcoming winter will feature those kind of temperatures. Instead, I would expect temperatures closer to normal overall which means we are unlikely to see the sustained blowtorch conditions that we saw during the Super Nino of 2015-16 or the snow-torch winter that followed in 2016-17. With that, let the blogging efforts begin for another season, I hope it's a good one for everyone.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
2018-2019 relived - It was great to be a northern Vermonter !!
Following several years of mixed to flat-out bad snow seasons, Mad River Glen finally procured a truly great one. Yes, we did a few crusty interludes but even the best ski seasons in New England feature a bit of that. The thaws were short-lived and northern New England fended off some of the adverse weather patterns quite admirably and performed exceptionally well as a whole when the pattern supported either marginal or favorable stretches of wintry weather in eastern North America. Going into the month of March, one might have been a bit ambivolent as to how to categorize the snow season, but once again, the mountain was able to procure a massive March snow event of nearly 3-feet, the third consecutive season with such a result. This brought the seasonal snow totals and the total base to some of the best levels of the decade. It was an even better year to our north, where the snow at the Mt Mansfield stake nearly reached the highest level ever recorded. Overall however, northern Vermont was a favored location this season which was a reversal from the season prior when southern Vermont recorded above normal snowfall but northern Vermont was just below.
Below is a link to the Mt Mansfield data which is cleaned up nicely by our friend Matt Parrilla
Mt Mansfield Snow Stake
And following another dose of spring snow. Here are some selected seasonal snowfall total amounts for random ski areas mostly inside a Vermont, but a few outside as well.
Jay Peak.... 423"
Smuggs....387"
Stowe.....311"
Mad River Glen....244"
Sugarbush....239"
Killington....223"
Stratton....137"
Mt Snow....140"
Hunter Mt, NY....71"
Camelback, PA....43"
Though a good snow season was predicted by the SCWB and a few others, it didn't arrive without concerns. The previous summer featured invariable heat and humidity over New England that I attributed to an area of sea surface temperature warmth off the New England coast. Additionally, we had a strengthening El Nino that was much weaker than the one in 2015-16, but was nonetheless threatening to become a more detrimental force in the regions weather with further intensification. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which had provided the region with consecutive years of favorable support had largely neutralized itself by the fall. All that said, the pattern had clearly turned away from "warm" and had done so quite abrupty around the time of October 12th. Within a month, the warm sea surface temperature blob off the New England coast had vanished and a healthy build-up of snow across the northern hemisphere hinted that colder weather would indeed prove to be formidable during the winter and it was.
Following some elevation snow events in late October, more widespread snow accumulation began around the time of November 10th along with a friendly stretch of cold weather. A large east coast storm on November 15-16, the biggest of the season in several areas along the coast, deposited upwards of a foot of snow across ski country and this was followed by additional snows in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Incredibly, conditions at Sugarbush on the celebrated third Thursday of November could have been confused with what one might expect in January. I mean let's be real, many January and the last two February's have been considerably worse. Thanksgiving even featured January-like temperatures including a sub-zero morning and only teens in the afternoon. The clammer to open Mad River Glen appeared to be growing by the day and being the "people pleasers" that they are, the staff got it done and opened on Friday, November 24th, day 1 of 136 !!! The earliest open I can remember in the coop era.
And then November 27th-29th happened and a typical feel-good early snow season month became "Snovember" !!!! Exiting the central Rocky Mountains on November 24th, this storm appeared headed innocuously toward the eastern Great Lakes. Subtropical energy was able to fuel the development of a coastal low pressure center and the storm re-consolidated not far from Boston on Tuesday, November 27th. An axis of very heavy, but elevation sensitive snowfall had already established itself the night before. Some rain fell in the lowest valley locations for a while but the snow fell throughout the night across the mountains, accumulating well over a foot by morning and continuing throughout the day. By Wednesday the 28th, Mad River Glen had reopened, three feet of new snow had fallen, and many wooded/gladed favorites were already ski-able. It was just remarkable to see that just a few days after Thanksgiving !
Milder air on the first Sunday of December brought the powder-fest to an end temporarily, but winter re-established itself across the northeast and the ensuing 17 days featured a near uninterrupted stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. Northern New Englnad was, during this period, one of the few spots across the country seeing consistent winter weather and this was a distinction that would re-emerge in January. Unfortunately, this winter-like period was mostly a dry one but occasional snow did manage to refresh conditions now and again. Northern Vermont then managed to resort to its customary Xmas flop. The forecast data hinted that we might manage to find a way through what appeared to be an increasingly adverse looking late December pattern featuring what was probably the strongest Pacific "Evil Empire" of the season. Hopes were dashed however when on the solstice we got smoked with a big rain event and a temperature spike. Snowpack over the Champlain Valley got essentially taken out but we managed to retain at least half across the northern Vermont high country. Colder temperatures prevailed through the days surrounding Xmas but another round of ice/rain on the 28th and 29th pretty much cemented yet another very forgettable year for late December skiing in Vermont. Hey, I think many of us have simply come to expect it at this point.
A pattern change and some big improvements also seemed to be right around the corner even as we sloshed through all the wet weather during the last 10 days of December. The pattern which for a time looked arctic across much of North America, seemed to be moving quickly toward a lot of "El Torchy". For a time the pattern appeared to be defined large positive PNA structure in the jet stream but this pattern turned out to be much weaker than initially anticipated and for much of the first half of the month, New England was again the only place experiencing consistent winter weather. Even with only marginal temperatures, the snow began to fly again across Mad River Glen and following a mild Friday January 4th, a nearly 20-day stretch of sensational January snow conditions began. Snow was recorded on the first full weekend of January but fell more significantly between January 8-11. Conditions were dry but cold in the several days that followed but the pattern appeared to be gearing up for plenty of winter excitement with a beautiful looking storm lined up for MLK day followed by intense cold. Both did indeed occur and provided Vermont with what was the most wintry weekend of the year. The MLK storm deposited a widespread area of nearly two feet of wind driven powder across the high country but wind driven was certainly a key adjective. The skiing was great but I will never forget sking down Lower Antelope while dodging the occasional downed tree limb and the random 6 foot snow drift !! I don't seem to recall any wind holds however at MRG but it was ferociously cold and the actual MLK holiday Monday turned out to be the coldest of the season. The stretch of incredible skiing was rudely interrupted in classic New England fashion by a rain event on January 24th. It was simply ridiculous to get rain and mild weather embedded into a pattern that was fundamentally very cold, but this cold was aimed more toward the central part of the country as opposed to the northeast. Chicago, IL and several locations in Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota saw some of their coldest weather of the decade but the pattern went easy on New England keeping the door open for aforementioned rain event on 1/24 while temperatures during that final January week didn't stray too far from normal. January finished strong with some snow coming from weaker disturbances but we were not able to procure another more significant storm as the larger areas of moisture remained to well to our south.
The approach of February is worthy of a bit of reminiscing. The arctic cold that frontally assaulted the midwest in record-setting fashion had the twitter-sphere ablaze with unprecented levels of hype regarding the weather for February. It was just remarkable to watch such a collection of experts, many of whom I respect, hitching their respective wagons to the notion of a "sustained" period of extreme weather persisting through February into early March. There are many aspects of weather forecasting that have greatly improved, even in the limited span of time the SCWB has been in existence, but actual weather and the jet stream patterns that guide the weather are incredibly chaotic and very difficult to predict beyond a week and especially difficult after two. An extended stretch of extreme weather is also statistically unlikely and a terribly low probabilistic outcome. Yet so many very intelligent folks suddenly felt it was likely especially in the twitter-universe. It is one of many very unfortunate byproducts of our social media environment. One that feeds on some of human nature's weaker impulses such as the constant need to be fed attention and adoration and being provided an avenue (Twitter or Facebook) to receive both. The weather forecasting world has also gotten incredibly competitive and there's a feeling among many that accurately identifying and predicting an "extreme" will raise one's stature in the field. Whatever the reason, it makes it more challenging for the public to sort through some of the noise. For example, when someone on Twitter, and this actually happened, posts an image of Boston's Prudential Building nearly buried under 400 feet of snow, the public is forced to extrapolate that information somehow. Obviously it was posted sarcastically and in jest but the forecast model that indicated the 1-2 foot nor'easter quickly changed its tune to partly cloudy and leaving that forecaster with a credibility issue even if he was just joking. Of course, as soon as the hype seemed to reach a peak, expectations for February began to shift as the slightly positive PNA was suddenly expected to turn violently negative. After hearing about a historic period of sustained and extreme cold, us Vermont skiers were suddenly worried about a repeat of our prior two February's.
In the end however, we got neither extreme sustained cold or a repeat of '17 and '18. Extreme sustained cold did sit over the state of Montana for much of February along with many other locations across the west. The pattern as a whole was simply awesome for ski areas west of the Continental Divide. It was generally a very adverse winter pattern for eastern North America but arctic cold remained on the playing field and we were thus able to fight our way through and actually end the month in better shape than where we started. And our start certainly left something to be desired featuring a few "El Torchy" days. It was actually interesting to this weather observer how problematic a south wind can be in the Mad River Valley. There were two days in early February where the aforementioned south wind just tore through the valley and ate up large chunks of exposed snow. If you headed over the Roxbury Gap Rd however much of that snow escaped the wind and snow-damage and the pack remained 3 feet deep. Cold weather returned and remained in place for much of the rest of the month beginning on February 9 but conditions were very hard initially thanks to the mild interludes. Fortunately a garden variety storm deposited a friendly foot of snow on February 12 and much of that remained remained on the ground through March. A series of inland runners later in the month brought mixed precipitation, some snow here and there and frequent temperature swings but readings stayed predominantly below the freezing mark during much of this time, even as storms tracked well north of the region.
The early part of March featured a bit of frustration. By this point the El Nino had almost entirely dissipated as did the more active southern branch of the jet stream which often accompanies such an ENSO event. Finally, we ridden the weather pattern of problematic PNA which was focusing much of the cold and snow on the western US but the cold weather in early March was mostly accompanied by sunshine. Even the terrain enhanced snow machine was largely shut down by the combination of low level stability and a frozen Lake Champlain which managed to freeze on what was likely the last possible day it could have frozen (March 9th). We did manage to procure a little bit o snow regardless and a little bit more during the weekend of March 8th-10th. Milder and more spring-like temperatures did arrive by March 15th and though the pattern looked somewhat stormy toward the end of the month, it looked like winter might losing its grip on Vermont. In the end it was another big spring tease ! What appeared, for a time, to be a snow producing clipper system suddenly showed more promise when models began to better resolve a more organized area of moisture along the Carolina coastline on March 20th. Ultimately this turned into a perfectly phased weather system. Incredibly, the track of this storm appeared far enough inland to hold down snow accumulations for a time in Vermont and focus much of the heaviest snow on the Adirondacks. In the end the storm track could not have been more ideal and the axis of heaviest snow was right over MRG during much of the day Friday. Conditions were a bit wet for a time but colder air changed all that on Friday night and some additional snow produced another powder bonanza across the high elevations on Saturday. There was some modest amounts of cold weather in the wake of the spring equinox dump but spring did reemerge, just a little during the last several days of the month.
April began with deep snow cover across the high county and only very gradually did the melt occur. There was some occasional snow early in the month and some great "corn horn" days. Kudos to all the folks at mountain ops that pushed for the record which was reached by opening the mountain on a beautiful bluebird day on April 17th and surpassed the following Saturday but with sketchier weather. Thanks to our big March storm, I really have no particular issues with how things played out and we certainly grade out as A+ for longevity. And with that, the blog signs off for the summer wishing everyone well until we speak again late in the fall. Don't forget to start thinking snow really, really early and maybe we can recreate another bit of magic next November.
Below is a link to the Mt Mansfield data which is cleaned up nicely by our friend Matt Parrilla
Mt Mansfield Snow Stake
And following another dose of spring snow. Here are some selected seasonal snowfall total amounts for random ski areas mostly inside a Vermont, but a few outside as well.
Jay Peak.... 423"
Smuggs....387"
Stowe.....311"
Mad River Glen....244"
Sugarbush....239"
Killington....223"
Stratton....137"
Mt Snow....140"
Hunter Mt, NY....71"
Camelback, PA....43"
Though a good snow season was predicted by the SCWB and a few others, it didn't arrive without concerns. The previous summer featured invariable heat and humidity over New England that I attributed to an area of sea surface temperature warmth off the New England coast. Additionally, we had a strengthening El Nino that was much weaker than the one in 2015-16, but was nonetheless threatening to become a more detrimental force in the regions weather with further intensification. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which had provided the region with consecutive years of favorable support had largely neutralized itself by the fall. All that said, the pattern had clearly turned away from "warm" and had done so quite abrupty around the time of October 12th. Within a month, the warm sea surface temperature blob off the New England coast had vanished and a healthy build-up of snow across the northern hemisphere hinted that colder weather would indeed prove to be formidable during the winter and it was.
Following some elevation snow events in late October, more widespread snow accumulation began around the time of November 10th along with a friendly stretch of cold weather. A large east coast storm on November 15-16, the biggest of the season in several areas along the coast, deposited upwards of a foot of snow across ski country and this was followed by additional snows in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Incredibly, conditions at Sugarbush on the celebrated third Thursday of November could have been confused with what one might expect in January. I mean let's be real, many January and the last two February's have been considerably worse. Thanksgiving even featured January-like temperatures including a sub-zero morning and only teens in the afternoon. The clammer to open Mad River Glen appeared to be growing by the day and being the "people pleasers" that they are, the staff got it done and opened on Friday, November 24th, day 1 of 136 !!! The earliest open I can remember in the coop era.
And then November 27th-29th happened and a typical feel-good early snow season month became "Snovember" !!!! Exiting the central Rocky Mountains on November 24th, this storm appeared headed innocuously toward the eastern Great Lakes. Subtropical energy was able to fuel the development of a coastal low pressure center and the storm re-consolidated not far from Boston on Tuesday, November 27th. An axis of very heavy, but elevation sensitive snowfall had already established itself the night before. Some rain fell in the lowest valley locations for a while but the snow fell throughout the night across the mountains, accumulating well over a foot by morning and continuing throughout the day. By Wednesday the 28th, Mad River Glen had reopened, three feet of new snow had fallen, and many wooded/gladed favorites were already ski-able. It was just remarkable to see that just a few days after Thanksgiving !
Milder air on the first Sunday of December brought the powder-fest to an end temporarily, but winter re-established itself across the northeast and the ensuing 17 days featured a near uninterrupted stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. Northern New Englnad was, during this period, one of the few spots across the country seeing consistent winter weather and this was a distinction that would re-emerge in January. Unfortunately, this winter-like period was mostly a dry one but occasional snow did manage to refresh conditions now and again. Northern Vermont then managed to resort to its customary Xmas flop. The forecast data hinted that we might manage to find a way through what appeared to be an increasingly adverse looking late December pattern featuring what was probably the strongest Pacific "Evil Empire" of the season. Hopes were dashed however when on the solstice we got smoked with a big rain event and a temperature spike. Snowpack over the Champlain Valley got essentially taken out but we managed to retain at least half across the northern Vermont high country. Colder temperatures prevailed through the days surrounding Xmas but another round of ice/rain on the 28th and 29th pretty much cemented yet another very forgettable year for late December skiing in Vermont. Hey, I think many of us have simply come to expect it at this point.
A pattern change and some big improvements also seemed to be right around the corner even as we sloshed through all the wet weather during the last 10 days of December. The pattern which for a time looked arctic across much of North America, seemed to be moving quickly toward a lot of "El Torchy". For a time the pattern appeared to be defined large positive PNA structure in the jet stream but this pattern turned out to be much weaker than initially anticipated and for much of the first half of the month, New England was again the only place experiencing consistent winter weather. Even with only marginal temperatures, the snow began to fly again across Mad River Glen and following a mild Friday January 4th, a nearly 20-day stretch of sensational January snow conditions began. Snow was recorded on the first full weekend of January but fell more significantly between January 8-11. Conditions were dry but cold in the several days that followed but the pattern appeared to be gearing up for plenty of winter excitement with a beautiful looking storm lined up for MLK day followed by intense cold. Both did indeed occur and provided Vermont with what was the most wintry weekend of the year. The MLK storm deposited a widespread area of nearly two feet of wind driven powder across the high country but wind driven was certainly a key adjective. The skiing was great but I will never forget sking down Lower Antelope while dodging the occasional downed tree limb and the random 6 foot snow drift !! I don't seem to recall any wind holds however at MRG but it was ferociously cold and the actual MLK holiday Monday turned out to be the coldest of the season. The stretch of incredible skiing was rudely interrupted in classic New England fashion by a rain event on January 24th. It was simply ridiculous to get rain and mild weather embedded into a pattern that was fundamentally very cold, but this cold was aimed more toward the central part of the country as opposed to the northeast. Chicago, IL and several locations in Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota saw some of their coldest weather of the decade but the pattern went easy on New England keeping the door open for aforementioned rain event on 1/24 while temperatures during that final January week didn't stray too far from normal. January finished strong with some snow coming from weaker disturbances but we were not able to procure another more significant storm as the larger areas of moisture remained to well to our south.
The approach of February is worthy of a bit of reminiscing. The arctic cold that frontally assaulted the midwest in record-setting fashion had the twitter-sphere ablaze with unprecented levels of hype regarding the weather for February. It was just remarkable to watch such a collection of experts, many of whom I respect, hitching their respective wagons to the notion of a "sustained" period of extreme weather persisting through February into early March. There are many aspects of weather forecasting that have greatly improved, even in the limited span of time the SCWB has been in existence, but actual weather and the jet stream patterns that guide the weather are incredibly chaotic and very difficult to predict beyond a week and especially difficult after two. An extended stretch of extreme weather is also statistically unlikely and a terribly low probabilistic outcome. Yet so many very intelligent folks suddenly felt it was likely especially in the twitter-universe. It is one of many very unfortunate byproducts of our social media environment. One that feeds on some of human nature's weaker impulses such as the constant need to be fed attention and adoration and being provided an avenue (Twitter or Facebook) to receive both. The weather forecasting world has also gotten incredibly competitive and there's a feeling among many that accurately identifying and predicting an "extreme" will raise one's stature in the field. Whatever the reason, it makes it more challenging for the public to sort through some of the noise. For example, when someone on Twitter, and this actually happened, posts an image of Boston's Prudential Building nearly buried under 400 feet of snow, the public is forced to extrapolate that information somehow. Obviously it was posted sarcastically and in jest but the forecast model that indicated the 1-2 foot nor'easter quickly changed its tune to partly cloudy and leaving that forecaster with a credibility issue even if he was just joking. Of course, as soon as the hype seemed to reach a peak, expectations for February began to shift as the slightly positive PNA was suddenly expected to turn violently negative. After hearing about a historic period of sustained and extreme cold, us Vermont skiers were suddenly worried about a repeat of our prior two February's.
In the end however, we got neither extreme sustained cold or a repeat of '17 and '18. Extreme sustained cold did sit over the state of Montana for much of February along with many other locations across the west. The pattern as a whole was simply awesome for ski areas west of the Continental Divide. It was generally a very adverse winter pattern for eastern North America but arctic cold remained on the playing field and we were thus able to fight our way through and actually end the month in better shape than where we started. And our start certainly left something to be desired featuring a few "El Torchy" days. It was actually interesting to this weather observer how problematic a south wind can be in the Mad River Valley. There were two days in early February where the aforementioned south wind just tore through the valley and ate up large chunks of exposed snow. If you headed over the Roxbury Gap Rd however much of that snow escaped the wind and snow-damage and the pack remained 3 feet deep. Cold weather returned and remained in place for much of the rest of the month beginning on February 9 but conditions were very hard initially thanks to the mild interludes. Fortunately a garden variety storm deposited a friendly foot of snow on February 12 and much of that remained remained on the ground through March. A series of inland runners later in the month brought mixed precipitation, some snow here and there and frequent temperature swings but readings stayed predominantly below the freezing mark during much of this time, even as storms tracked well north of the region.
The early part of March featured a bit of frustration. By this point the El Nino had almost entirely dissipated as did the more active southern branch of the jet stream which often accompanies such an ENSO event. Finally, we ridden the weather pattern of problematic PNA which was focusing much of the cold and snow on the western US but the cold weather in early March was mostly accompanied by sunshine. Even the terrain enhanced snow machine was largely shut down by the combination of low level stability and a frozen Lake Champlain which managed to freeze on what was likely the last possible day it could have frozen (March 9th). We did manage to procure a little bit o snow regardless and a little bit more during the weekend of March 8th-10th. Milder and more spring-like temperatures did arrive by March 15th and though the pattern looked somewhat stormy toward the end of the month, it looked like winter might losing its grip on Vermont. In the end it was another big spring tease ! What appeared, for a time, to be a snow producing clipper system suddenly showed more promise when models began to better resolve a more organized area of moisture along the Carolina coastline on March 20th. Ultimately this turned into a perfectly phased weather system. Incredibly, the track of this storm appeared far enough inland to hold down snow accumulations for a time in Vermont and focus much of the heaviest snow on the Adirondacks. In the end the storm track could not have been more ideal and the axis of heaviest snow was right over MRG during much of the day Friday. Conditions were a bit wet for a time but colder air changed all that on Friday night and some additional snow produced another powder bonanza across the high elevations on Saturday. There was some modest amounts of cold weather in the wake of the spring equinox dump but spring did reemerge, just a little during the last several days of the month.
April began with deep snow cover across the high county and only very gradually did the melt occur. There was some occasional snow early in the month and some great "corn horn" days. Kudos to all the folks at mountain ops that pushed for the record which was reached by opening the mountain on a beautiful bluebird day on April 17th and surpassed the following Saturday but with sketchier weather. Thanks to our big March storm, I really have no particular issues with how things played out and we certainly grade out as A+ for longevity. And with that, the blog signs off for the summer wishing everyone well until we speak again late in the fall. Don't forget to start thinking snow really, really early and maybe we can recreate another bit of magic next November.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
El Torchy makes a "welcomed" Vermont visit Saturday following some rain Friday evening
The colder has relented over a mass expanse of the country through the first 10 days of April but has been especially slow in doing so over much of Vermont. As a result, the high country continues to keep much of the deep snow that has defined this season. The Mount Mansfield snow stake peaked following the storm in late March but remains at well over 100 inches, nearly double its average for this time of the year. Though plenty of winter weather is ravaging the upper Midwest Thursday, interior New England appears as if it will escape all of it over the next 10 days.
I can't answer for the mountain as to whether or not the upcoming weekend will officially close out the season but I'll try to answer for the weather. Hello, El Torchy my old friend. I might actually like to see your face again ! And how often might I say that ? About once a year around this time ! Fortunately I think we will get exactly that and right on time. An area of warm advection induced precipitation will arrive Friday night and move away Saturday morning, setting the stage for mild southwesterly breezes through much of the ski day and soaring temperatures that should reach the low 60's at the base of the hill and 50's on the upper mountain. A storm will spin its way deep into Canada as this is happening, but after Friday evening, precipitation should be a minimal risk until Sunday evening. Sunday's temperatures however will be cooler however, mostly remaining in the 40's under an thickening layer of cloudiness.
A more substantial area of precipitation associated with a more substantial storm system arrives Sunday evening and this will persist into Monday. There is simply not a lot of available cold with this storm but the track and magnitude would suggest this will be a big precipitation event regardless with copious amounts of rain and even flooding risk .Yes, an infusion of just a little more cold air could make part of this storm a snowy one for the high country so it's worth watching for that reason but low lying areas can expect above freezing temperatures throughout much of the week. That said, New England will again struggle to see any of the very warm readings that are predicted across the Mid Atlantic states.
Enjoy the upcoming weekend !!
I can't answer for the mountain as to whether or not the upcoming weekend will officially close out the season but I'll try to answer for the weather. Hello, El Torchy my old friend. I might actually like to see your face again ! And how often might I say that ? About once a year around this time ! Fortunately I think we will get exactly that and right on time. An area of warm advection induced precipitation will arrive Friday night and move away Saturday morning, setting the stage for mild southwesterly breezes through much of the ski day and soaring temperatures that should reach the low 60's at the base of the hill and 50's on the upper mountain. A storm will spin its way deep into Canada as this is happening, but after Friday evening, precipitation should be a minimal risk until Sunday evening. Sunday's temperatures however will be cooler however, mostly remaining in the 40's under an thickening layer of cloudiness.
A more substantial area of precipitation associated with a more substantial storm system arrives Sunday evening and this will persist into Monday. There is simply not a lot of available cold with this storm but the track and magnitude would suggest this will be a big precipitation event regardless with copious amounts of rain and even flooding risk .Yes, an infusion of just a little more cold air could make part of this storm a snowy one for the high country so it's worth watching for that reason but low lying areas can expect above freezing temperatures throughout much of the week. That said, New England will again struggle to see any of the very warm readings that are predicted across the Mid Atlantic states.
Enjoy the upcoming weekend !!
Friday, April 5, 2019
Wet snow Friday night will cover the northern Vermont high country with a few inches to start the first full weekend in April
Sunshine helped to boost temperatures out of the teens and into the 40's Friday keeping with the theme that the weather in much of Vermont has only allowed for limited glimpses of spring. The Friday evening, early Saturday weather map appears rather disorganized, and a rather disorganized area of precipitation will impact the high country across northern Vermont before clearing the region in the morning hours Saturday. The airmass in place across the region is both cold (for the season) and especially dry and this will allow a chunk of this precipitation to fall as a wet snow and leaving our favorite Vermont ski locations with 2-3 inches of snow by first tracks time Saturday. The exiting precipitation early in the day will also mark the northward advance of some milder temperatures. Readings will climb well into the 40's Saturday and may approach 50 on Sunday ( higher readings can be expected in the low lying areas).
A few days ago, the April 7-9 time frame was highlighted as the period most likely to see some decent spring-like warmth and that it wasn't likely to last. Well, at least the 2nd part is looking correct and the first is more accurate in locations south of Vermont. For northern New England, cold air positioned over Quebec will compete for control and bring more classic Vermont April conditions. The limited sunshine and near 50 degree readings Sunday will be replaced by cloudiness, temperatures generally in the 30's on Monday and a period or two of rain. Though the rain will move out by Tuesday, the clouds will prove to be more stubborn and thus keep temperatures from climbing out of the 40's until very late in the day if at all. Wednesday will follow with readings ranging from the 30's during the morning to near 50 during the afternoon and this will be followed by cooler conditions as we approach the last weekend of the Mad River Glen season.
The blog will likely get one more general update next week which will discuss the weather details during the mid-April MRG finale. If some kind of storm shows up, multiple updates may be required. Though a powdery finale is unlikely, the pattern will be driven by the negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO & NAO). This means below normal temperatures and the possibility of unsettled weather including snowfall. For now, we should keep expectations more general and expect sub-freezing temps at least in the mornings and no better than 45 in the afternoons. Conditions are also more likely to be cloudy with at least one period for some type of precipitation.
A few days ago, the April 7-9 time frame was highlighted as the period most likely to see some decent spring-like warmth and that it wasn't likely to last. Well, at least the 2nd part is looking correct and the first is more accurate in locations south of Vermont. For northern New England, cold air positioned over Quebec will compete for control and bring more classic Vermont April conditions. The limited sunshine and near 50 degree readings Sunday will be replaced by cloudiness, temperatures generally in the 30's on Monday and a period or two of rain. Though the rain will move out by Tuesday, the clouds will prove to be more stubborn and thus keep temperatures from climbing out of the 40's until very late in the day if at all. Wednesday will follow with readings ranging from the 30's during the morning to near 50 during the afternoon and this will be followed by cooler conditions as we approach the last weekend of the Mad River Glen season.
The blog will likely get one more general update next week which will discuss the weather details during the mid-April MRG finale. If some kind of storm shows up, multiple updates may be required. Though a powdery finale is unlikely, the pattern will be driven by the negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO & NAO). This means below normal temperatures and the possibility of unsettled weather including snowfall. For now, we should keep expectations more general and expect sub-freezing temps at least in the mornings and no better than 45 in the afternoons. Conditions are also more likely to be cloudy with at least one period for some type of precipitation.
Monday, April 1, 2019
Burst of spring-warmth expected for April 7-9 but winter appears less likely completely fade away
April begins and the deep snow across the Vermont high country remains. The month also arrives with a few inches of snow and Tuesday April 2nd will begin with temperatures in the high teens. There are some changes that need to be discussed regarding the overall weather pattern for the next two weeks but Mad River Glen and the rest of Vermont will stay in spring mode and some very warm weather appears headed our way around April 7th and 8th. The blog has obviously begun winding down for the season but will continue to be updated as needed, and as the impressively long Mad River Glen season continues. If we can continue to remain open through mid-April, I would imagine that we would be challenging some MRG Coop records as far as numbers of days in operation. I'll have to consult with the powers-that-be if such records are actually kept.
The current forecast suggests most of the rest of the week (through late Friday) will remain free of any heavy precipitation. Temperatures will begin each day in sub-freezing territory with the coldest morning being Tuesday morning. Each day is also indicated to feature at least limited amounts of sunshine and Tuesday should feature lots of sunshine. The one noteworthy weather feature that could completely change this short term outlook is a subtropical piece of energy in the jet stream that is expected to move to within 100 or so miles from Cape Hatteras Tuesday. Though this storm is expected to confine its impact to areas offshore or on the immediate coast as it continues to advance northeastward, the track has shifted slightly west in the last 1-2 days. Another 100 miles west and maybe we an introduce some snowfall to the forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday but for now the forecast in that time frame is for some clouds and limited sun with a few elevation sensitive snow showers. The next weather question revolves around the later Friday/early Saturday time frame when the next weather system may or may not move far enough to bring a mixed bag of precipitation.
Whatever weather does or does not occur early in the upcoming weekend will be gone by later Saturday and Sunday appears to be fantastic with temperatures well into the 50's after starting near 30. Monday April 8th appears even warmer potentially with temperatures surging into the 60's, something that hasn't really happened since October across the high elevations.
In the last update, I had indicated that the warm weather might be a more prevailing thing beyond the span of a few days. Data today suggests otherwise however with both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to turn negative as we move toward the middle of the month. Sustained warm weather thus looks very unlikely given that. There are no indications of sustained cold right now but these teleconnections certainly raise the chances that winter might be prepping for another significant encore between April 10th and 17th. We will continue to watch it.
The current forecast suggests most of the rest of the week (through late Friday) will remain free of any heavy precipitation. Temperatures will begin each day in sub-freezing territory with the coldest morning being Tuesday morning. Each day is also indicated to feature at least limited amounts of sunshine and Tuesday should feature lots of sunshine. The one noteworthy weather feature that could completely change this short term outlook is a subtropical piece of energy in the jet stream that is expected to move to within 100 or so miles from Cape Hatteras Tuesday. Though this storm is expected to confine its impact to areas offshore or on the immediate coast as it continues to advance northeastward, the track has shifted slightly west in the last 1-2 days. Another 100 miles west and maybe we an introduce some snowfall to the forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday but for now the forecast in that time frame is for some clouds and limited sun with a few elevation sensitive snow showers. The next weather question revolves around the later Friday/early Saturday time frame when the next weather system may or may not move far enough to bring a mixed bag of precipitation.
Whatever weather does or does not occur early in the upcoming weekend will be gone by later Saturday and Sunday appears to be fantastic with temperatures well into the 50's after starting near 30. Monday April 8th appears even warmer potentially with temperatures surging into the 60's, something that hasn't really happened since October across the high elevations.
In the last update, I had indicated that the warm weather might be a more prevailing thing beyond the span of a few days. Data today suggests otherwise however with both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to turn negative as we move toward the middle of the month. Sustained warm weather thus looks very unlikely given that. There are no indications of sustained cold right now but these teleconnections certainly raise the chances that winter might be prepping for another significant encore between April 10th and 17th. We will continue to watch it.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Mad River Glen and Vermont ski country is transitioning toward spring weather, but some early Sunday snow is very possible
Much of Vermont ski country has been basking in the glory of another epic March storm (our third such event in as many years) while I have spent the last few days neglecting the blog, mostly due to travel. Sorry about that. The blog returns today at a transition point for Mad River Glen. Wednesday, March 27th will end up marking the transition to a more spring-like weather regime. Over the next two weeks, almost every day will feature above freezing temperatures and several days will see 50-plus if not 60-plus degree readings. We can see well into April now so such occurrences are to be expected.
Thursday is expected to start with some sunshine and end mostly cloudy. The corn horn should sound throughout the valley and most of the high country as well with readings soaring well into the 40's and 50's (after starting in the 20's) with an increasingly gusty south to southwest wind. Leftover arctic chill across eastern Canada will make a futile push back into New England Friday but will likely fail to make a substantial penetration into Vermont. The close proximity of this boundary will provide a focusing mechanism for a few weakened areas of light rain but most of Friday will just feature clouds, some minimal amounts of sun and more above freezing temperatures.
A more organized storm system is expected to make an eastward push toward the region toward the weekend. The track of this storm will allow Saturday to be fairly torchy and somewhat showery with temperatures well into the 40's and even 50's across low lying areas. If folks are looking to get out and ski Saturday, I would be very surprised if it turns out to be an all day washout. My guess is 1-3 hours of lighter rain and 1-3 hours where we see a few peaks of sun. The more organized area of precipitation with this storm is expected to arrive overnight Saturday or very early Sunday. A significant push of colder temperatures will accompany some of this precipitation, undercutting the prevailing area of mild air dominating the region Saturday. This will make the approaching cold front more "anafrontal" in nature and sets up a scenario where rain is likely to change to wet snow early Sunday. A few inches of accumulation is very possible early in the day and the rest of Sunday should feature temperatures mainly in the 30's.
The early part of next week and first few days of April appears dry and a bit chilly in a relative sense with morning temperatures in the 20's, and afternoon readings in the 30's. After that we appear headed toward a pattern that might consist of lots of above normal temperatures beginning with a few days where temperatures approach 60 late next week and a few more days where the same could occur in the following week. One push of cooler temperatures may interrupt the onset of Spring around the time frame of the first weekend in April but this appears to be a decidedly unwinter-like pattern for the first 10 days of April.
Thursday is expected to start with some sunshine and end mostly cloudy. The corn horn should sound throughout the valley and most of the high country as well with readings soaring well into the 40's and 50's (after starting in the 20's) with an increasingly gusty south to southwest wind. Leftover arctic chill across eastern Canada will make a futile push back into New England Friday but will likely fail to make a substantial penetration into Vermont. The close proximity of this boundary will provide a focusing mechanism for a few weakened areas of light rain but most of Friday will just feature clouds, some minimal amounts of sun and more above freezing temperatures.
A more organized storm system is expected to make an eastward push toward the region toward the weekend. The track of this storm will allow Saturday to be fairly torchy and somewhat showery with temperatures well into the 40's and even 50's across low lying areas. If folks are looking to get out and ski Saturday, I would be very surprised if it turns out to be an all day washout. My guess is 1-3 hours of lighter rain and 1-3 hours where we see a few peaks of sun. The more organized area of precipitation with this storm is expected to arrive overnight Saturday or very early Sunday. A significant push of colder temperatures will accompany some of this precipitation, undercutting the prevailing area of mild air dominating the region Saturday. This will make the approaching cold front more "anafrontal" in nature and sets up a scenario where rain is likely to change to wet snow early Sunday. A few inches of accumulation is very possible early in the day and the rest of Sunday should feature temperatures mainly in the 30's.
The early part of next week and first few days of April appears dry and a bit chilly in a relative sense with morning temperatures in the 20's, and afternoon readings in the 30's. After that we appear headed toward a pattern that might consist of lots of above normal temperatures beginning with a few days where temperatures approach 60 late next week and a few more days where the same could occur in the following week. One push of cooler temperatures may interrupt the onset of Spring around the time frame of the first weekend in April but this appears to be a decidedly unwinter-like pattern for the first 10 days of April.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Wet snow Thursday night becomes more powdery snow by Friday night with 1-2 feet expected across the high country, less in the valley
During the last update I spent much of time getting folks "jazzed-up" (Herbie Hancock style) for the upcoming storm. We can get further mired in the fine print today which in summary reveals that though we still are likely to get a superb event, the best since MLK day I still think, we are not in that bullseye area. The juicy coastal system will phase and subsequently bomb, but will also track over interior southern New England, thus placing the Adirondacks in the more favored corridor. That said, the storm will still deliver a dose of powdery goods Friday night into what will be a blustery Saturday.
Precipitation will arrive Thursday night as a mix of rain and snow in the valley locations and a gloppy wet snow at higher elevations. At some point during the overnight hours, the wet snow will become heavy and accumulate 4-8 inches above 2,000 feet and about 1-4 inches below that. As the low pressure center continues to intensify over Connecticut/Mass Friday morning the heaviest precipitaiton is indicated to shift west toward the Adirondacks and precipitation in the low lying regions may change to a very light rain or dissipate all together for a time. This period beginning around 9 AM Friday and ending about 2PM is the warmest part of the storm and temperatures will likely hover above the freezing mark below 2500 feet and at or just below that mark above that.
Later in the afternoon, the storm will continue to wind itself while heading into the Maine, and the colder, moist conveyor of the storm will gradually work its way from the Adirondacks into the Green Mountains. This is where the fun begins with temperatures gradually cooling into the 20's on the mountain and snow recommencing and in a drier form above 2500 feet while snow begins as the wetter variety in valley areas. Snow should continue in rather consistent fashion from Friday evening to mid morning Saturday, bringing 8-14 inches to the high country and 4-8 inches to valley locations. This will mean some wildly different snowfall totals depending on elevation ranging from a very gloppy and dense 6 inches along to the valley floor to 1-2 feet of the drier stuff above 2500 feet. Saturday will be blustery with 30-50 mph northwest winds at the summit though temperatures should stay below freezing across most of the mountain even if readings eclipse the freezing mark in low-lying areas. I continue to watch the data as it comes in and there is still some hope that the storm track is a bit further east. Should this be the case, it would greatly improve the Friday outcome, essentially nullifying much of our time above-freezing and allowing for the Thursday night snow to continue through much of the day Friday (though it would still be of the wetter consistency).
Sunday's temps will be in the twenties to start but soar to near 40 during the afternoon. It might be dry enough to preserve some of Saturday's powder at the highest elevations but this can be difficult to assess and will likely depend on the amount of sunshine (which looks pretty good). The upcoming week appears similar to the last update. Arctic will advance southeastward Monday and some snow (and a few inches of accumulation) is likely to accompany this colder push of temperatures. Tuesday appears very chilly with readings as low as 10 during the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures Wednesday will climb back toward the freezing mark before milder more typical late March weather prevails for later in the week. The "corn horn" will eventually sound next week but it might take a while.
Precipitation will arrive Thursday night as a mix of rain and snow in the valley locations and a gloppy wet snow at higher elevations. At some point during the overnight hours, the wet snow will become heavy and accumulate 4-8 inches above 2,000 feet and about 1-4 inches below that. As the low pressure center continues to intensify over Connecticut/Mass Friday morning the heaviest precipitaiton is indicated to shift west toward the Adirondacks and precipitation in the low lying regions may change to a very light rain or dissipate all together for a time. This period beginning around 9 AM Friday and ending about 2PM is the warmest part of the storm and temperatures will likely hover above the freezing mark below 2500 feet and at or just below that mark above that.
Later in the afternoon, the storm will continue to wind itself while heading into the Maine, and the colder, moist conveyor of the storm will gradually work its way from the Adirondacks into the Green Mountains. This is where the fun begins with temperatures gradually cooling into the 20's on the mountain and snow recommencing and in a drier form above 2500 feet while snow begins as the wetter variety in valley areas. Snow should continue in rather consistent fashion from Friday evening to mid morning Saturday, bringing 8-14 inches to the high country and 4-8 inches to valley locations. This will mean some wildly different snowfall totals depending on elevation ranging from a very gloppy and dense 6 inches along to the valley floor to 1-2 feet of the drier stuff above 2500 feet. Saturday will be blustery with 30-50 mph northwest winds at the summit though temperatures should stay below freezing across most of the mountain even if readings eclipse the freezing mark in low-lying areas. I continue to watch the data as it comes in and there is still some hope that the storm track is a bit further east. Should this be the case, it would greatly improve the Friday outcome, essentially nullifying much of our time above-freezing and allowing for the Thursday night snow to continue through much of the day Friday (though it would still be of the wetter consistency).
Sunday's temps will be in the twenties to start but soar to near 40 during the afternoon. It might be dry enough to preserve some of Saturday's powder at the highest elevations but this can be difficult to assess and will likely depend on the amount of sunshine (which looks pretty good). The upcoming week appears similar to the last update. Arctic will advance southeastward Monday and some snow (and a few inches of accumulation) is likely to accompany this colder push of temperatures. Tuesday appears very chilly with readings as low as 10 during the morning and only near 20 during the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures Wednesday will climb back toward the freezing mark before milder more typical late March weather prevails for later in the week. The "corn horn" will eventually sound next week but it might take a while.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
