Can't bring any love to the next few days but the outlook is indeed much improved beginning January 17th

Consistent with some of the trends which began yesterday, the outlook, as a whole, continues to look better for both cold and snow in Vermont for the back part of January. Unfortunately, these improvements in the forecast picture don't apply to the coming weekend- a period that continues to look pretty rough state-wide.

We saw some occasional very light precipitation through much of Friday as temperatures crept above the freezing mark. Temperatures will continue to inch upward this evening and during the overnight, rising to about 40 degrees while the bulk of the light precipitation is confined to the northern third to quarter of the state. For a bulk of the Saturday ski-day, I expect this to continue as temperatures exceed 50 thanks to a stiff south to southwesterly breeze. The MRV and surrounding high country will be on the very southern edge of an area of rain expected to impact the very northern part of Vermont but until 2 PM, we are likely to avoid it leaving us with what should be spring conditions. North of Waterbury, rain is considerably more likely and is more probable earlier in the day. By evening, the low level push of cold is expected to arrive, impacting the northern third of the state. From Stowe northward, significant icing is certainly possible. Rain might turn to freezing rain closer to Mad River Glen as well but the lastest indications are that temperatures settle between 32-37 Saturday night leaving us mostly ice-free. All that said, low-level pushes of cold can be very tough to forecast leaving traveling conditions very changeable. The southern half of the state is likely see no impact from this overnight cold push. The snowmelt is thus likely to more extensive but the traveling will be better with readings remaining in the 50's. Even with the earlier cool down Saturday night, the combination of 50-degree temperatures, wind, high dewpoints and rain are going to do substantial damage to what I would still describe as a thin snowpack. Temperatures hovering in the upper 30's or lower 40's Sunday won't help either though the rain should mostly taper off early in the morning.

Colder Canadian air will abruptly push temperatures back below freezing Sunday night, well into the teens in fact by Monday morning. Though there are a couple of opportunities for small amounts of snow early next week, but these are overshadowed by a more significant low pressure area expected to impact the state late in the week bringing either snow, a wintry mix or rain. Some light snow late on Monday stems from weakening surface disturbance but is likely to bring 1-2 inches to the northern VT high country nonetheless. Another on Tuesday night appears to be a 1-3 inch situation. The last-week storm will enter the central plains on Wednesday and quickly approach the region Wednesday night. The end result appears to be a close call and though the storm is likely headed up the St Lawrence Valley, it might make the critical jump to the Atlantic Ocean allowing for a predominantly snowy scenario Thursday. I am actually happy we've managed to keep the game close on this storm considering what is expected to be some pretty bad pattern fundamentals.

Those poor fundamentals, which include a very positive AO and a very consolidated Pacific jet stream are expected to change after January 17th and do so much quicker than I had feared. The AO is not expected to reverse sign yet (it's been positive for quite some time now) but it will lose most of its "positive" intensity. Of specific importance is some much needed action in the more southern latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean which will have the effect of pushing a ridge north into Alaska (A place that has been incredibly cold the first 10 days of January). With this change, the mid-latitude Pacific jet stream will weaken while the ridge in Alaska will act as mechanism to push arctic cold southward in lower North America. In the wake of the aforementioned late-week storm, an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures look increasingly promising. There have been additional hints of a significant storm for MLK weekend (around Jan 19) and any such storm would certainly have the benefit of more available cold air. I can't provide any clarity on details whether it be the storm or the period that follows (Jan 20-24) but it looks decidedly more wintry compared to a few days ago.