Models predicting a non-event this weekend though ingredients are still there for "something"

Above 2000 feet in northern Vermont largely escaped most of the above-freezing temperatures and the wet weather this past weekend. Below 2000, it was a somewhat different story and that elevation sensitive story continued through Sunday and into Monday. The snow showers responsible for the recent additions of snow will continue (albeit pretty light) through Monday night and will deposit another inch or so by Tuesday morning. Another extended stretch of dry weather then begins on Tuesday. The sun will make only a limited appearance Tuesday but should dominate the weather for all of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and certainly help to make for some excellent visibility. Temperatures will also stay well below freezing, reaching the 20's during the day and falling generally into the single numbers during the night. Calm winds Wednesday and Thursday night could certainly allow a few places to fall below zero but those same calm winds should make those readings a bit more tolerable. The real arctic cold has been over Alaska for much of this month and that is expected to continue this week.

Though the weather is expected to dry out and remain pretty tranquil for the duration of this week, the southern branch of the jet stream is active and is expected to produce a series of precipitation producing disturbances. The first later this week will pass well to our south and allow our weather to stay sunny as mentioned above. We are hoping the 2nd will join forces with some incoming jet energy from Canada and produce a mammoth weekend storm. Storms that are predicated on a jet stream phase are always a difficult ask and models have an especially difficult time pinpointing that type of action even 3 days out no less a week. The late March storm from last year involved a phase but models failed to predict the event until within 72 hours of the event. All I can say for the blog is that we acknowledged the possibility for "something" yet certainly failed to predict 4-inch an hour snowfall rates (which is what we ended up receiving). At face value, models are suggesting a non event. The southern branch feature appears weaker and too far east while the Canadian "kicker" arrives a hare too late over the Mid-Atlantic. These situations are always fluid however. The ingredients are there however. A stronger southern streamer and this thing will happen.  A more non-event type weekend would still include the chance for snow showers. There will be a favored zone for such activity in the northeast and it remains to be seen whether that zone will be farther west extending from western New York down through the Appalachian Mountains or whether that is more over us across interior New England.

So I had expressed some affectionate dismay over the invariable lack of teleconnection support this winter and although the possibility of a storm this weekend has dropped somewhat, at least the AO/NAO appear more neutral for the first 10 days of February. This should allow arctic air to become a more visible part of the forecast picture in early February and will also provide us with what perhaps could be a key ingredient toward the middle to end of next week. Ensembles have been highlighting the possibility for a big east coast jet amplification for some time and an event in that Wednesday-Thursday time frame is certainly possible. All sorts of things are actually possible in this period since models also indicate a brief opportunity for some milder temperatures around Tuesday February 4th. Could be a nice all-snow event or wintry mix or combination of both but at the very least, we should see a healthy burst of colder temperatures beginning Friday February 7th and extending through the weekend.