Wetter outlook Saturday night but general outlook for the next two weeks still has room for plenty of cautious optimism

The moral of our weekend story was that we needed this upcoming storm to track inland but not too far inland. Without the support of a fresh supply of cold, we are walking the proverbial tightrope and we need an optimal storm track, along with a few other things to ensure a snowy result. Low pressure, expected to develop in the Delaware Valley Saturday and regenerate what is a rather pathetic looking storm system, is now expected to move northeast over New Hampshire which is a bit too far north for our liking. With more cold air in place this would be totally fine but we are without it right now and  too much warmth  will get sucked into much of Vermont late Saturday, enough to turn to the forecast more rainy and icy (at least in that period).

It is important to note how fluid this situation is and how close it is. There is critical layer of the lower troposphere, between 3,000-7,000 feet that will get impacted by this influx of warmth late on Saturday. As the event commences in the MRV however, this layer is indicated to cool and support quite possibly support a period of decent snow if the precipitation intense enough. Without the intensity though, precipitation will fall as rain or freezing rain Saturday night. Temperatures will also be warmer than I had hoped, even across the high country. The best we can hope for is a bit of gloppy snow Saturday night with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.

There is a sizable jet stream level cold pool that will enhance instability and turn the precipitation type to snow as Sunday progresses. Given the forecast changes already discussed, the ski day Sunday certainly looks gloppier or perhaps even slushier in the morning, but snow showers and colder temperatures will prevail over the high country during the afternoon even as valley areas remain above freezing. Those snow showers will continue into the overnight and into Monday and accumulations should be very elevation sensitive. In these types of setups, wind direction becomes critical. Northwest flow is better for us and west flow is better for the likes of Stowe and Jay Peak. Right now the prevailing wind direction appears more westerly, shifting to the northwest by early Monday. The snow showers will produce snowfall accumulations of 4 to as much as 12 inches above 2000 feet but the 12 inches is more likely from Stowe northward with the 4 inches more likely for Sugarbush and Mad River Glen. The forecast change has really negatively effected southern Vermont which isn't likely to see much of any snow through the weekend.

Yeah this is a bit of a downer but the snow outlook in general is at least hopeful. We've more or less eliminated the risk of any substantial thaw for the final week of January and an important area of modified chill should impact Vermont in the final two days of the month (Thursday/Friday) ahead of what could be an interesting first few days or maybe week of February. More specifically speaking, snow showers from the weekend storm will linger into Monday and even Monday night along with relatively mild near-30 degree readings on the hill (upper 30's in the valley). The Tuesday though Friday period appears dry but again it appears mostly sub-freezing.

I genuinely enjoy the R&B tune by Sade, "No Ordinary Love". That said, the song pops into my head looking at the teleconnection outlook for the next few weeks and not in a great way. There's no ordinary love from the Arctic Oscillation, no ordinary love from the EPO or pacific jet and not much ordinary love from the NAO either. If you just look at the various ensembles at face value however, the first 10 days of February could have all sorts of ordinary love. Yes the fundamentals would advise some caution, but the forecast data suggests a strong enough ridge across the west coast and a lot of potential for multiple jet amplifications, big jet amplifications along the east coast. There is big storm potential, again with only marginal cold air support in the February 1-2 period  and later in the February 6-8 period. Worth watching and hoping as it all sorts itself out.