Weekend storm looks like a dud while overall pattern is certainly presents some challenges

I had hoped the news would get better today but it really hasn't. Though the ensembles continue to tease us with signs and signals of amplifying east coast jet streams, possible storms and more intense outbreaks of arctic cold, the pattern fundamentals remain poor. This continues to stem from activity in the mid-latitude Pacific; which, for a better part December and January has made it very difficult to sustain a wintry pattern across eastern North America. The EPO which indirectly measures the strength of eastern Pacific jet stream has been negative or favorable for about week out of 2 months. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) hasn't performed much better, only attaining a negative or favorable posture for about 2 weeks. Interior New England appears positioned to avoid a sustained torch (and their will be one for parts of the east coast), but it will still make winter weather life unnecessarily frustrating at times.

Wednesday began another 3-day stretch of dry and predominantly sunshiney weather. Temperatures will be chilly by night, dropping below zero in certain locations through Friday but some stronger, better angled sunshine and little wind will make for some comfortable ski days with readings remaining just shy of the freezing mark across the country during the afternoons. Our first opportunity at a February storm appears to be a miss this weekend. There's a southern branch feature and a nice looking Canadian kicker impulse but not much in the jet stream to hold it all in place. It's worth watching over the next two days but this system is both not expected to completely phase and be well too far east to produce any real magic. The Canadian kicker passing so far to our south may also have the effect of focusing snow shower activity south and west of Vermont. Though I wouldn't entirely eliminate the possibility of light snow this Saturday, a dry and only somewhat cloudy day is looking like a greater possibility. We have a better chance for some snow from warm advection later Sunday after Saturday's storm is well downstream of us.

Early next week, much of the eastern two thirds of the United States will bask in a giant blow torch. Simply put, it looks more and more like a giant area of Pacific air capable of producing widespread near record high temperatures once it is displaced from the Rocky Mountains beginning Sunday and extending through the middle part of next week. Now, for the time being, Vermont appears positioned to avoid most of this. Like I mentioned, some snow is possible late in the day Sunday and that will extend into Sunday night.  By Monday appears to be the day where some milder temperatures could make the northward journey into much of Vermont but it remains a close call with colder arctic air remaining close by at least if not encompassing part of the state. As the week progresses, that cold air should again push south slowly and should set the stage for the classic east coast airmass clash. Though I certainly can't promise or wouldn't yet predict an epic week of powder, these types of setups can be productive, especially for northern Vermont. Areas farther south will see better golfing conditions than skiing conditions.

The situation described above is a bit of a change from recent indications but much more consistent with the overall pattern fundamentals. That being said, this pattern is likely going to continue through the middle of February. It doesn't mean we aren't capable of scoring but we will be skating on some thin ice. One aspect of the outlook that does look encouraging is the strong area of cold predicted to be centered over eastern interior Canada and out over the Davis Strait and Labrador Sea. Much like what as described in the previous paragraphs, this should help keep cold air at least close and in play. And the pattern is capable of producing several storms so we will need all the cold weather help we can muster.