A softer version of our cold outlook allowing for more stormy and a lot cases snowy scenarios over the next 10 days

 Back on December 28th, I did 4 laps on the practice slope, the only run open at MRG on that date. It had snowed in the morning, but temperatures had warmed to almost 40 degrees during that afternoon. This was 43 days ago now and it basically hasn't been above freezing (at least by more than a degree or 2) since that date and it certainly hasn't rained. Interestingly, the Mt Mansfield snowstake has yet to completely recover from the slow start (its getting close) but the snow has been fantastic and most places in Vermont seem to have 90-100 percent of terrain open. As of February 10th, arctic air has a firm grip on the weather over Vermont but interestingly, the pattern hasn't become completely suppressed which is an inherent fear when the PV gets this close. The +EPO (strengthy Pacific Jet) is currently down but not out and the southeast ridge in the jet stream, a common feature in any La Nina winter is showing its resilience and has and will deflect a lot of the cold weather away from the southeast coast even as Texas gets obliterated with cold over the next week to 10 days. Add all this together and it makes for an intriguing forecast for northern New England. To borrow the famous quote from Mark Twain, rumors of a dry forecast were greatly exaggerated ! It will not be dry across Vermont and several chances for snow and even some sleet, dot the outlook for the next 10 days. 

I suggested in the last update that we can expect some changes to the forecast every day. We have and that will continue. There was also a mention of the trend toward a drier outlook late this week and that now appears pretty firm. We saw a decent bit of sunshine on Wednesday in the MRV and we should see more both Thursday and Friday while the clouds and overrunning precipitation are well to our south. Temperatures will remain quite chilly however with readings struggling into the teens Thursday and perhaps only 10 on Friday after a below zero start. Its a close call right now but Friday could be the coldest day of the month with readings during the holiday week not looking nearly as cold today (more on that in a bit). The forecast data seems to have converged on a solution for the weekend that involves a wave of low pressure developing and moving south of the Virginia Tidewater late Saturday. Though this would seem way too far south for our liking, and it mostly is, an inverted trough extending way up through the Great Lakes is the critical feature for us. It will allow for an area of snow that should impact Vermont on Sunday, even as the strongest area of low pressure is several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod. That snow will be light but still capable of producing a few inches. It also could land on someone else, so we will need a few more days to confirm that. 

This brings us into the holiday week which looks increasingly interesting with 2 potential storms impacting interior New England. The holiday Monday looks tranquil and cold but not as cold as many in the forecasting community (including myself) had feared. Temperatures could still start below zero but several hours of stronger February sunshine should warm readings into the 20's by the afternoon. And then the fun begins. A strengthening ridge in the ridge in the jet stream is likely going to push a low pressure conglomeration in our direction. I've seen some talk of a Great Lakes cutter and some dire consequences but I don't really buy into that outcome as very likely. I think an initial storm may try and track to our west but there should be an energy transfer to the coast and this should result in a decently snowy outcome for Tuesday.  I think the window is open for a turn to sleet just as the window remains open for the storm to trend southward. For now however, I don't think above freezing temperatures is especially likely in northern Vermont with the Tuesday system. The rest of holiday week looks less cold however with a more amplified pattern keeping the cold in Texas of all places rather than pushing it eastward. Temperatures for the rest of next week after Monday look about normal and a 2nd substantial weather system is likely a result of that more amplified pattern late in the week. This one could go in a number of directions being 9-10 days out but the notion of a storm in this time frame appears pretty legit to me, with enough cold air around to make something productive out of it. 

The +EPO/strong Pacific jet is looking more formidable by the end of next week and I expect much of the cold across the southern US to retreat. This said, the continued presence of blocking across Greenland and a limited amount in NE Russia should allow arctic air to have a strong presence across Canada through the rest of the month. With more ice cover on the Great Lakes, Vermont should have be able to enjoy at least some access to that cold which should help us with any potential storm and my guess is, we will have at least one in the Feb 20-25 time frame.