Northern VT likely to miss most of Superbowl Sunday storm but stormier forecast emerges for next week and most of the precipitation appears to be snow

Both arctic cold and snow continue to dominate the outlook going forward. Saturday appears to be one of the warmer days of the next 2 weeks with temperatures climbing into the 20's, a modest but tolerable wind (10-20mph) and a few glimpses of sunshine. And yes, we have a Superbowl Sunday storm but the track of this storm is offshore and barring another big northward shift, the more robust nature of this storm will actually consolidate snowfall toward the coast and leave less for the state of Vermont. Models are indicated that an inverted trough feature  will allow for a period of lighter snows at MRG during the afternoon on Sunday but accumulations will be less than 2 inches. 

So the polar jet is incoming as expected but recent forecast data has moved to confine the core of most extreme chill north and west of the Great Lakes between February 8th and 12th. Though below normal temperatures are still expected in the MRV, we should be able to avoid the -10 to -20 degree readings and afternoon temperatures may reach the low 20's a few times contrary to my last update. The better and more important news related to this change is the storm track which will be aimed much closer to Vermont and has greatly helped the snow forecast during the same period. Chances for snow from a garden variety storm system remain for Tuesday and models Friday have introduced the idea of a 2nd wave of low pressure next week presenting another chance for snow Thursday.  Though I love the idea of additional snow late in the week it does come with a concern since it involves a potential jet amplification over the center of the country. If the pattern becomes too amplified it would open the door for precipitation to become non-snow in nature by Friday. Ensembles (in the mean) are not suggesting this is likely as of now but a few of the operational model runs are indicating such and I will thus convey the possibility. 

In spite of some of the changes between February 9th and 12th, the coldest part of the forecast still appears to be centered around the 13th-15th time frame. Whether the arctic cold attacks us from the west or more directly from the north will ultimately determine how extreme the cold is but the potential is certainly there for the lowest temperatures of the season. It also means this same period, consisting of the President's Day holiday, is likely to be drier from the standpoint of chill. Beyond the 15th the chances for new snowfall will likely pick up again and I continue to expect that temperatures will stay below average which means teens and 20's for high's and several mornings where temperatures are below zero.