A very unique weather situation over the next week that has a decent chance at yielding an outstanding outcome for us Vermont skiers but also a slight chance of a bad end at the end of next week. It's really one of the more incredible weather patterns I have seen with historic cold in Texas while temperatures on the east coast remain pretty close and in some places even stay above normal.
In the short term, the weather will stay quiet. We have a dry but cold Saturday with temperatures remaining in the teens. Light snow from that inverted trough we were discussing in the last update, will indeed bring us a minimal amount of snow Saturday night, perhaps 1-2 inches before departing just as the ski day gets going Sunday. We should see temperatures rebound nicely on Sunday, climbing well into the 20's with very minimal wind. That should feel tropical compared to much of the weather we've seen over the past 2 weeks.
Monday will be similar to Sunday with clouds, little wind and temperatures up around 30 in the afternoon. Remarkable when I think that 10 days ago, the President's Day holiday seemed to be the bullseye for the coldest day of the year in New England. As it turns out, that cold will slam into Texas head first and give them one of the coldest days of the past decade. The intense clash of arctic air to our west and a mild upper ridge to our east is going to churn up a decent looking storm along the Gulf Coast late on Monday and. Light snow stemming from all this has a chance at beginning as early as Monday afternoon well out in advance of this system but there is potential for moderate to heavy snowfall Monday night into early Tuesday. The storm is a garden variety event and will be sped along by a strong jet stream but models are converging on a 7-15 inch type of event and a terrific ski day on Tuesday even as arctic cold is pulled back into northern New England as the day progresses.
Sunshine might return for a day on Wednesday and gusty winds late on Tuesday could diminish setting the stage for one of the few calm days of the week. Another storm will then gathering strength late Wednesday into Thursday, again along the Gulf Coast and again fueled largely by that highly baraclinic clashing of airmasses from northwest to southeast. This storm has even more potential from the standpoint of intensity but I am little worried about this sucker. We could score another big haul of snowfall but we are playing with fire if the pattern becomes too amplified in the Mississippi Delta region. A storm could cut toward the eastern Great Lakes in such a setup and end what would be a 50-plus day streak without a serious thaw and without any rain. The American GFS model has been indicating this, a few runs in a row. Canadian and European model data is indicating a track far enough to the east that we could avoid a turn to rain while procuring a healthy to even heavy dose of snow. In other words, a lot is on the line with the storm track late next week. I can be a little more specific on timing by saying this is a late Thursday into Friday question and even the snowy outcome should be accompanied by moderating temperatures.
The weekend of February 20th and 21st should begin blustery and end with temperatures close to seasonable levels. Snow showers are certainly possible late Friday Feb 19th into Saturday the 20th. After that, much of the U.S., south of 40 N north latitude will see moderating temperatures as the Pacific jet jet again becomes a more formidable adversary. I do think arctic air remains close enough in Canada to keep New England mostly out of any spring balminess. Once we get to February 22, the sun angle is high enough to begin materially impacting climatology and warming our normal temperatures.
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