All things considered, winter weather enthusiasts should take this update with some optimism. Much of it stemming from the fact Friday's snow event is shaping up to be our third biggest of the season with a somewhat wintry looking pattern to follow as we head into early March. The situation late this Tuesday into Wednesday is hardly ideal, but we've endured worse gut punches in the past. We may be staggering but are still standing and will live to fight another round!
The Tuesday/Wednesday thaw should play out something like this. Following a period of inconsequential light and wet snow Monday night, Tuesday should feature clouds and some occasional drizzle or light rain along with wretched visibility. It should remain socked-in enough that temperatures are likely stuck in the thirties and a few areas might even see some freezing rain or drizzle early in the day. The heavier rain then moves in Tuesday evening but temperatures and dewpoints should remain in the thirties across the high country and we can expect amounts to be in the half an inch category by the time the rain stops before dawn on Wednesday. It's a crappy situation that deserves no sugarcoating, but we should be able to avoid the trifecta of snow-eating elements that include rain, high dewpoints and wind. Wednesday remains a very warm looking day, but it appears to be a mostly dry one with temperatures reaching the low 50's in the valley locations and 40's on the mountain. The wind will eat some additional snow on Wednesday but dewpoints should remain in the 30's. A sharp cold front marking incoming arctic air officially puts an end to a lousy stretch of winter weather and marks what now looks to be the beginning of a long stretch of sub-freezing weather.
Thursday is very bluebird but also blustery and needless to say very firm with temperatures hovering around 10 on the mountain and struggling to reach 20 in the valley. The bluebird weather is presented to us courtesy of a very strong high pressure that will set up shop in Quebec by early Friday and it is this feature that is helping to fuel what now appears to be a very healthy snow producing weather system just ahead of the last weekend of the month. The low pressure center responsible is not a strong one but will head toward the Ohio Valley Friday evening and from there transition to the southern New England coastline. It's important to figure out exactly where but nearly the entire range of possible tracks places northern Vermont in some decent snowfall during the day on Friday. Again, it appears to be a very solid event but not an epic one and accumulations across the high country will be in the 8-16 inch category with lesser amounts in valley areas. Another aspect of this storm we can be relatively certain about is the snow consistency. Again, courtesy of the strong arctic high in Quebec, this will be a cold snow, whatever falls and temperatures should remain in the teens or perhaps even lower. I've noticed that is not what my iphone is telling me, so probably worth pointing out that I expect Friday's high temperature forecast to drop in the coming days. The ensuing last weekend of February appears chilly but not brutally chilly with some limited sunshine and nothing more than flurries. High temperatures should reach the low 20's both days after starting close to zero.
A pretty large jet amplification is expected to bring a reinforcing surge of colder weather around February 28th and there have been hints of some coastal storm development Sunday night and into that day but nothing conclusive. The cold weather between Feb 28 and March 3rd, at least cold relative to average, does look rather conclusive and I would hope we can squeeze out some additional natural snowfall in that period. A strong jet stream ridge over Alaska is one of the strongest features on the northern hemisphere weather board and is the big culprit behind winter's comeback. This feature is expected to remain in place for a while with the Pacific gradually becoming more supportive by around March 7th. There are signs of a period of warmer temperatures around the time of the first full weekend of March but I expect any milder air to be short-lived with both colder weather and the chances for snowfall returning by the week beginning March 8th.
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