Wintry weather dominates rest of week but another big thaw possible Monday March 8

The last update of February 2022 features some good and bad news. The good news involves a very wintry rest of the week with 2 rounds of light snowfall accompanied by temperatures more typical of mid-winter than early March. Certainly adds to what has been a very productive week with 15 inches falling between Friday's storm and Sunday's snow squalls. There's bad news however involving the incredibly pesky southeast ridge - a La Nina favorite. It looks potent enough in the March 7th or 8th timeline to cause another round of melting before cooler weather returns for the middle of next week. 

Some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere will be positioned eastern Canada this week and Vermont is getting a taste of that Monday and another equally strong taste on Thursday and Friday. In between there are two weak weather systems that could bring some light snowfall to the mountains. The first, a clipper system, will bring clouds to northern Vermont Tuesday and some light snow beginning in the midday hours and persisting into the evening. Winds will become marginally favorable for some additional showers Tuesday night for a few hours leading us to a 3-5 inch, low density snowfall. Wednesday follows as a mostly dry day (with the exception of a few snow flurries) with intervals of both clouds and sun, but our second big shot of the aforementioned cold approaches late on Thursday in association with a hybrid clipper system. This means an additional round of light snowfall late Wednesday night into early Thursday (another 2-4 inch type event) with cold temperatures and strong northerly winds accompanying the clearing skies late Thursday. Temperatures could plummet to as low as -10 in a few spots early Friday before a heavy dose of early March sunshine boosts Friday afternoon readings into the 20's. 

I think we can ward off the strong push of mild air through the weekend. Saturday appears dry and mostly sub-freezing with early sunshine giving way to clouds and though Sunday's temperatures are likely to climb above freezing, they should only do so by a few degrees. On Monday however, there are indications of a very intense push of milder air. It remains to be seen if we get a full unmitigated torch with 60-plus temperatures and wind or some weaker version that might include more clouds and low visibility but with temperatures that are less than excessive. 

The weather pattern has some promise beyond the March 8th, but temperatures do not appear especially chilly between March 9th-13th. Arctic air will remain on the North American continent but reposition itself over western  and central Canada allowing for the continuation of spring like temperatures along the immediate east coast and more above freezing afternoons across interior New England. This is not unusual for the time of year, but it does underscore the importance of getting a more optimal pattern in the transition months if you still want snow. Blocking in Alaska will put pressure on this arctic air to push southeastward but it would certainly help if the Pacific cooperates. There are continued indications that it will by March 12th-14th but this process appears slow and this is probably what bothered me the most as I looked at all the data both Sunday and today (Monday).