Mild air, wind and rain appear more likely late Thursday and weather pattern appears fundamentally bad for winter wx until middle of next week

Though it's pretty cold across Vermont this Valentine's Day, winter weather lovers such as myself are being forced to gaze beyond the middle of next week for some pattern relief. Over the next 7 days or so, it does not appear we can overcome the overwhelming amount of mild fundamentals conspiring against us. I have to say though, we are giving it a decent effort and have pulled ourselves to within 100 miles of pulling off another amazing escape late this week. Montreal, about 130 or miles, north-northwest of us, has an outlook Thursday into Friday that looks very similar to what happened in northern Vermont on February 3rd and 4th and it's happening on the same days of the week. 

The high pressure center responsible for the recent outbreak of cold weather will produce a bluebird day on Tuesday with the sunshine helping to boost temperatures toward 20 degrees by the end of the ski day. In spite of more cloudiness Wednesday, a milder breeze will boost temperatures up past the freezing mark during the afternoon and this is when the trouble begins. A strong area of low pressure will take shape near the Red River Valley of TX/OK early on Thursday and speed northeastward passing somewhere between the eastern Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont very early Friday. As mentioned we need to push this storm another 100 miles further south and unless we do that, a very strong, very mild push of air out in front of this area of low pressure will push temperatures into the 50's on Thursday and this is followed by a night of wind, rain and 40-plus dewpoints Thursday night. I think the northern half of our state can see precipitation end as some snow early Friday with the heaviest accumulations occurring at Canadian border  locations such as Jay Peak with lesser amounts as one heads south on Rte 100. I've seen stronger and longer duration thaws in Vermont and with certainly heavier rain. Preliminary estimates are of an event capable of producing about a half inch of rain mostly Thursday night; but again, the combination of wind, rain and high dewpoints will do some noticeable damage to our snowpack which already suffered a little from the wind and mild temperatures this past Saturday. 

A softer bout of arctic air will envelop the region for the President's Day holiday weekend and there is a weak clipper system that could spread some very light snow to northern Vermont on Saturday. I would not expect any heavy snow in Vermont through Monday the 21st however and our best chance at any accumulation is likely on the back end of Friday's event. Temperatures will be tolerable through the weekend with afternoon readings in the 20's and morning temperatures in the single digits except for Monday which appears to be a bit milder throughout the day. 

The strong and very La Nina-esque southeast ridge in the jet stream is responsible for the problems we are encountering late this week and also poses a threat to our weather for the Tuesday/Wednesday, Feb 22-23rd time frame. Arctic air is pushing back a bit and we stand a chance of salvaging a little winter weather, albeit with above average temperatures. Fundamentally however, it is a very ugly combination of teleconnection indices over the next 7-9 days. By the middle of next week and beyond, we begin to get some help from the PNA, the index measuring the strength of ridging across western part of the North American continent. Ensembles indicate a strengthening area of colder weather in eastern Canada pushing south and mitigating the strength of the southeast U.S. jet stream by Thursday, Feb 24. This provides some hope we can make something happen toward the very end of February and into early March.