Halftime intermission of this forgettable stretch of winter weather, but help may be on the way late next week

 In the wake of the basebox flood, we did manage to receive what appears to be a few inches of Champlain powder. Not the consolation prize we were looking for after yesterday, but when the book is closed on winter '21-'22, it will be the glaring lack of instability snow, in almost any form, that will headline the below average snowfall we are on pace to receive. It won't be easy placing an accurate finger on why this happened (I assure you, I will try) except to say that parking deep pools of low level instability over interior New England for any length of time has not been a personality trait of the current cold season. 

The dark side of La Nina will continue to make its presence known early next week, but we do have a winter reprieve this weekend with some additional assistance from the Champlain powder early Friday.  Though clearing skies will support single digit temperatures Friday night, light southerly flow will boost temperatures back into the 20's very quickly on Saturday even as clouds increase in advance of a clipper system. Actually, its a mistake to call any southerly flow light in the MRV as winds can really rip down from the Breadloaf Wildnerness area when blowing from that direction. The clipper will bring a little snow our way but it will all come very quickly and end just as quickly in the form of 1-2 big snow squalls and some additional snow showers and flurries Saturday night. We need more,but I can't promise anything more than 1-4" and I only picked the 4" because it rhymes. Less changeable weather follows for Sunday in the form of some early sunshine and some afternoon high cloudiness. Not total bluebird weather, but still very good visibility and with winter-like but tolerable near 20 degree temperatures. 

The early part of next week is just an ugly mess and believe me I take no joy wasting minutes of my day blogging about it. Though arctic air is going to make every effort to maintain some grip on northern Vermont, the overall pattern is so god awful with so much warmth pushing northward, it will be very difficult to avoid another torchy day or period. Monday we are likely just stuck under clouds and a period of snow is still possible Monday night before mid-level warmth and eventually every level warmth consumes us by the middle of the day Tuesday. Another round of significant rainfall (around 1/2 inch again) is possible during the back half of the day and there is a chance of some ice in between any snow Monday night and the rain later Tuesday. Temperatures again look potentially excessive late Tuesday into Tuesday night and again they could be accompanied by the snow eating combination of wind and high dewpoints. We can avoid some of this if we can shift Tuesday's storm significantly southward, but the strength of the southeast ridge appears very dominant and awfully tough to overcome. 

The news does get dramatically better late next week. There are signs and lots of them now, that the return of arctic air combined with the beaten-down, but not entirely defeated southeast ridge will help spin up what appears to be a nice looking storm system in the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. This feature will speed its way northeastward and has all the necessary ingredients to produce a decent synoptic snow across interior New England so long as the storm track cooperates. I don't see a 2-foot return to glory here but it does have the potential to turn into a modest 5-15" type event. 

The weather pattern looks decent as we approach March with ridging in western North America likely keeping enough cold weather around. As mentioned in the last update, the situation in the Pacific should gradually improve though I would underscore the gradual part. The MJO appears to be on the move and telegraphing a potentially favorable period but not until the 2nd week in March. Ridging in Alaska will dent the +AO situation but will fail to turn it negative and the +NAO remains an issue for the foreseeable future. A +PNA is a necessary first step back however since defeating or weakening the La Nina driven ridge in the southeast US is absolutely paramount.