A modest 12-20" inch event expected for Saturday/Saturday night across the MRV high country

Some minor adjustments are needed to the weekend forecast, but we still are looking at one of the better events of the season. The 2nd week of March is typically around the time where snow at the Mount Mansfield stake is at it's highest (~70"). Right now, we are at roughly 60 percent of average there and certainly in a lot worse shape further down the mountains so the need for snow is certainly dire. 

Snowfall expectations need to be trimmed 4" on either side for two basic reasons. The first and most important is the storm track. Models have settled nicely on a consensus but that consensus would have a strengthening area of low pressure track from the Delmarva to the eastern Cape as opposed to over metro Boston. As a general rule, the MRV can still perform very well when a storm tracks over Cape Cod, but this will remain a compact storm Saturday with a narrow moist conveyor. The 2nd reason is what models are showing as a slower intensification verses expectations a few days ago. This very quick moving storm will still be maturing along the eastern New England coastline and this will limit the expansiveness of snowfall Saturday afternoon. Still, we remain in a very good spot and are likely to see a colder storm in the aggregate. Snow will begin in the predawn hours Saturday with temperatures in the lower 30's, but readings will fall into the 20's very quickly on the mountain and should stay cold enough to support powder thereafter. Snowfall should remain very steady throughout the ski day but I don't see indications of 2-3 inch an hour snow in the current data. We likely see 5-8 inches by 4 pm with snow continuing through the evening. Winds will align very nicely late in the evening off Lake Champlain in an already very moist lower troposphere and this sets us up well for terrain enhanced snowfall through much of Saturday night. It's worth reiterating that snowfall forecasts that you might see in valley locations are not going to account for this (nor should they), but this accounts for the discrepancy in expectations with my forecast meant specifically for the high country above 1500 feet. So in summary, it's 5-8 during the ski day, another 2-4 during happy hour and another 5-8 during the overnight and the 12-20 inch total by Sunday morning. 

The storm clears out very quickly Sunday and the clouds will break for time (accompanying temps in the teens and 20's) but a small disturbance in the eastern Great Lakes may step in the way of a full day of sun. This disturbance marks the approach of milder air will will blow into the region very quickly after a chilly morning Monday on southwesterly winds. Temps are likely to approach 50 in valley locations and reach the 40's on much of the mountain though temps might stay in the 30's at the highest summits.   A weak cold front will then bring some mixed precipitation consisting of rain changing to snow at high elevations early Tuesday. Any precipitation will be short lived and skies should clear later Wednesday and then remain clear through Thursday. Even the cold front won't keep us out of spring mode however and below freezing overnights will be followed by above-freezing days on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Readings could get excessively warm Friday afternoon. 

A couple of shifts in some in the longer range outlook compared to the last update. After a potentially warm day on Friday, March 18, the weather looks more unsettled in the weekend that follows. Precipitation looks mostly rainy with minimal available cold available but a deep enough storm could produce some high elevation snow as time progresses. Ensembles then snow another warm period around March 22nd and 23rd but they've also trimmed the AO outlook to neutral and are suggesting that the last week of the month will be cooler and more unsettled. I won't use the word cold and snowy yet but the month might not go out with a torch and a whimper.