Some snow is possible for this Saturday but weather pattern does not support any sustained stretches of cold for March

Another very potent round of mild weather, record breaking in this case, and wind put a massive dent in what is left of winter 2022. Though temperatures did cool down on Monday, they didn't cool enough to support snow and only minimal amounts of wet snow is expected over the high country Monday night. From a big picture standpoint, the weather pattern does not support any additional extended periods of winter weather going forward which is basically to say that the conditions we saw through much of last week are done for the season. The pattern doesn't look overwhelmingly warm and an isolated wintry interlude is still possible; after all, March is a month where the stars can align even when they shouldn't align, but expectations should be adjusted to account for more spring conditions going forward. 

After an inch of wet snow across the high country Monday night, some sunshine and seasonable temperatures return for Tuesday. The ever-present La Nina fueled southeast ridge that has largely been responsible for the seemingly endless stretch of 70-plus temperatures in the Carolina's and Georgia along with Sunday's tropical onslaught in Vermont, will produce another wave of low pressure expected to pass over the Delmarva on Wednesday. Models have been rapidly enhancing the vitality of this storm but it is nonetheless too far south for snowfall in Vermont and quiet weather remains the expectation for Wednesday including morning temperatures near 20 and afternoon readings close to 40. 

We continue to expect a big jet amplification late this week and into the weekend but getting the stars to align for an epic snowfall has been very difficult and appears unlikely as of early this week. We are still likely to see some snowfall late in the game but with the arctic cold positioned well to our west and the initial amplification also too far to our west, it is creating a less than optimal situation for snow across interior New England.  I had also hoped that we could establish a zone of overrunning snow Thursday and into Friday and although there remain some indications of that in the St Lawrence Valley, this does not appear likely to materialize in the Green and White Mountains. So what are we left with ? More quiet weather Thursday into Friday with some limited sunshine on Thursday and more clouds Friday. Expect both mornings to be sub-freezing and both afternoons to feature temperatures slightly above freezing on the mountain and 40's in valley locations. Precipitation will arrive Friday night, likely as rainfall but I was encouraged with some recent model data which suggested a well-established surface low would strengthen as it pushes from eastern Pennsylvania to the Maine coast. This scenario would allow rain to change to a period of significant snow on Saturday before an area of moderated arctic cold envelops the region for the duration of the weekend. 

The aforementioned cold weather was expected to persist in a general sense for several days and suppose to be the result of changes in the Pacific that was expected to favor colder than normal temperatures more broadly in eastern North America. This has turned out to be a failure and it would sound silly to sugarcoat it. It also proves how difficult it can be to accurately predict the MJO even when the models appear very decisive about the direction it might be headed. The jet stream in the Pacific is not expected to be strong but will never move into the favorable condition I had hoped it might. Additionally, the high latitude block over Alaska will clearly break down, shifting its focus to the northwest Pacific and partly covering portions of the Eurasian continent. This means that the cold weather Sunday into Monday will give way very quickly to more milder temperatures for the middle of next week (March 15th-17th) and there are, as mentioned, no indications of a sustained stretch of colder weather thereafter. We can still see temporary winter interludes in this type of setup but additional rounds of mild weather are also likely.