After an incredible St Paddy's day, we pay for it with a dark, gloomy, rainy Saturday, though outlook does look colder next week

St Patrick’s day 2022 turned into an absolute winner. An average March/April will have a few days like this sprinkled into the very gradual upward temperature slog, but I feel I should note how much I’ve come to appreciate the sun-decking weather at MRG with a full blast of March sunshine corning it up from top to bottom. Hopefully, many of you got a chance to get out and enjoy it and if not, Friday is a slightly cooler and somewhat cloudier version of Thursday with temperatures holding in the 50’s. The slightly cooler weather marks the advance of a weak low level push of cooler weather. Though the cooler air won’t be strong enough to put the corn horn away Friday, it seems intent on fouling up the weekend forecast. 

For as much as I love the weather on St Patrick’s day, I absolutely hate spring days like Saturday. That, aforementioned cooler air is strong enough to wedge itself into the interior New England mountains, keep temperatures across the high country in the high 30’s with little to no visibility. The cool air is not strong enough however to turn the rain to snow, and the wet weather will begin around dawn Saturday and continue sporadically throughout the day. Saturday gets a decided failing grade from me, but some classic New England payback for a perfect St Paddy’s day. As mentioned in the previous update, some cooler air aloft will begin to advance into Vermont Sunday but this will be a gradual process and I wouldn’t count on any snow; instead, we should see clouds and intervals of sunshine with temperatures reaching 50 in valley locations and 40’s on the mountain. 

Beyond Sunday the outlook does look colder and I think it will turn out somewhat wintry as well after we sort through all the details. Colder temperatures will settle over the region on Monday and it will remain unstable enough across the high country for some snow showers. It’s possible to see an accumulation, especially above 2000 feet but I wouldn’t guarantee that yet. Flurries will likely continue into Tuesday although it does appear we will see a bit more sun by then, Both Monday and Tuesday will see the return of some sub-freezing temps in the morning with readings climbing only slightly above freezing each afternoon. The most interesting weather feature over the next 2 weeks appears to be an event in the Thursday-Saturday time frame (March 24-26). We have a weak area of early spring cold air in eastern Canada and a much stronger dose of cold will be heading southeast in central Canada thanks to the formation of a small but notable jet stream block in the arctic, north of Alaska. At the same time, a weather feature should be advancing our way out of the southeast. In the aggregate, models aren’t screaming big storm, but some necessary ingredients appear to be in place for at least something. It will be certainly be worth watching models sort this whole situation out and it would be consistent with the up and down nature of this past winter season, to produce a big storm after another round of warmth. 

Expect cold weather to follow whatever kind of weather we get late next week and persist for several days into early in the following week, lets call it March 28th or so. The cool signal on the ensembles begins to fade after that as we advance toward April 1.