More March 12-13 magic for northern Vermont with powerful storm bringing 16-24 inches Saturday/Saturday evening

It's worth reiterating Monday's bullet point about the pattern going forward this March not appearing especially wintry. But March is the one of the more chaotic months of the year climatologically speaking, and big storms can materialize even when conventional wisdom would suggest they should not. Worth noting how the Martin Luther King holiday was able to magically produce a big snow consistent with some recent tradition. Big storms also seem to a magnet for the March 12-15 period with several years in the last 30 featuring big events in this time frame. Recent data suggests we can do it again, with a fast moving but impressive looking March powerhouse of a storm lined up for the weekend. 

Tranquil weather conditions will lead us to the weekend fireworks. Thursday features some sun with temperatures topping out a few degrees above the freezing mark on the mountain and Friday is a cloudier version of Thursday. Both days should feature decent visibility and it should be noted, very little wind. Our storm will form out of an area of moisture around the southern parishes of Louisiana and move quickly northeastward Friday evening. Dramatic improvements in the forecast stem from the track of this system. Initial concerns relating to the pattern amplifying too far west are now gone and replaced with a near perfect setup and a storm exploding in the Delaware Valley bordering NJ/PA and tracking over metro-Boston and eventually over the downeast region of Maine. It doesn't get much better than a potentially sub 970-mb storm tracking through this corridor. The only downer relates to the fast northeast  movement of the storm, a theme that has been prevalent all winter and likely related to the lack of downstream blocking in the jet stream. I am happily accepting this gift however and given the recent confirmation from ensemble data, this storm appears earmarked for 16-24 inches in the northern Green Mountains, most of it coming during the day Saturday. 

Here are some additional details. The eastward shift in the storm track places us in a much better position to get full access to the storm's moist conveyor. Snow should begin late Friday night or in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday but with fairly marginal temperatures of around or just below the freezing mark. Saturday morning's snow is likely to be wet across valley locations up to about 2000 feet and powdery above 3000 feet. Colder air positioned on the west flank of the storm will ultimately get entrained into Vermont as the storm bombs Saturday and temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's, depending on elevation allowing the snow consistency to turn powdery everywhere. Unlike the event in early February which featured a nearly 2 foot snow and little wind, this storm is considerably more dynamic and will feature increasing amounts of wind as Saturday progresses. It will be cold enough for powder by late in the ski day up and down the mountain, but windy enough amp up the density of the fallen snow overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Snow should continue Saturday evening with some Champlain enhancement during the overnight hours. The speed of the storm is the only thing limiting snow totals to the 16-24", a slower moving storm and we would do more. Sunday is blustery with flurries and snow showers in the morning but skies should clear and sunshine will bring temperatures into the 20's during the afternoon. Monday's temperatures will then reach the 40's as southwesterly winds quickly bring more spring-like temperatures to the MRV. 

After the weekend, the pattern continues to appear milder. There are hints of a weather system on Tuesday (3/15) bringing some precipitation consisting of some initial rain turning to wet snow followed by some seasonable temperatures for the middle of the week. But the weekend of March 19th and 20th is indicated to be mild with the only question relating to whether we can keep the rain away.  There are signs of a return to more normal temperatures by around March 23rd but normal in late March consists of above freezing daytime temperatures.