Okay, so it's Friday afternoon and I see you breaks in the overcast at the Gate House Plaza. And I see you too - skiers at the top of Heaven's Gate getting trying to get a little Friday afternoon sun tan. Then there's the base of Mad River Glen stuck with visibility of about 200 feet in low clouds and fog. It's comical !
The sun is coming however, I am still saying it. Just a few intervals on Saturday that should include a sunset late in the day to go along with the sub-freezing 25-30 temperatures. The northerly winds of 10-20 mph on the upper mountain will keep wind chill temperatures lower and are also pushing in the drier air that will help mix out the stubborn low level moisture and decrease the cloudiness. The clear skies will help temperatures drop to near 10 Saturday night but a mostly sunny ski on Sunday will help temperatures recover to the 30 day mark. Its bluest sky we will have seen in two weeks and it's expected to continue Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with a similar range of temperatures that begin within a few degrees of 10 and rise to near 30 (Monday's temps are likely to top out only around 25 with strong northerly winds). The early part of next week is certainly appears to be a real nice stretch of traditional winter weather as we continue to remain an active participant in the North American torch avoidance program. The upper Midwest and central Canada will continue to be incredibly warm in this time frame. Unfortunately, our eligibility to remain part of this aforementioned program appears ready to expire as we move toward Friday of next week. Thursday is also expected to feature a mild afternoon but it continues to appear dry which is certainly good news.
Some sort of thaw late next week that includes wet weather appears more likely either Friday February 9th or Saturday the 10th. That said, there was certainly evidence on several of the computer simulations that we can avoid disaster. Even the European and Canadian model which have been competing to simulate the mildest outcome in this time frame have moved to limit the thawing Friday into Saturday. There's still some rain indicated, but for now it appears less than a half inch and doesn't include the wind and high dewpoints that just eat away at snow in a short span of time. Snow showers are also indicated as a possibility as the weekend progresses though temperatures are only expected to cool toward the freezing mark.
One by one, we are lining up the teleconnection indices necessary for a wintry second half of February. The AO is expected to turn negative by later next week and once its joined by a building +PNA structure in the jet stream, things will get much more interesting. For the week of February 12th - 16th, temperatures are likely to stay on the mild side as arctic air slowly rebuilds over Canada. Even without the arctic air over New England, interior sections are set up for some snow potential from storminess followed by a period of colder temperatures more likely by the weekend of February 17th and 18th and perhaps beyond.
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