Lots items on the weather map for the next two weeks. A lot of that is good and we have one big concern now that we can highlight and root hard to avoid. The short term outlook is fantastic, and a bit of snow has been added to the outlook going into what should be an awesome, wintry looking weekend.
Our clipper system is on time and on target and we appear to be in a pretty good spot though not entirely bullseyed. Snow will begin around midnight Wednesday and fall through some very cold near 10 degree air. First tracks time should feature 3-5 fresh and powdery inches and though the snow won't get especially heavy, we should able to double that total by Wednesday evening as snow tapers to flurries. Arctic air has retreated across much of the country with the exception of interior New England which should see readings in the single numbers along with sunshine on Thursday. Winds appear gusty Thursday morning and then taper off substantially by the end of ski day.
The weather is coming at us in a fast and furious way in this very energized jet stream. You don't like the weather one day, just sleep it off and something different gonna happen tomorrow and this is the way it will be for a bit. Our last day of January will feature more cloudiness and considerably milder temperatures. It appears cold enough to snow as precipitation arrives in the afternoon though I am a little c concern we see a mixed precipitation period if winds stay southwesterly. Fortunately, any of that mix is expected to become snow Friday evening as temperatures turn colder. This weather map appears very different than a few days ago and includes a much more organized storm system that is getting squeezed by advancing arctic air from the north and mild air from the south. It's moving quickly, limiting our snowfall potential though we can still expect a few inches ahead of a wintry and sunny weekend. Saturday is blustery and cold with temperatures in the teens and improving visibility. Sunday should feature early sun, and little wind followed by afternoon clouds and a little more wind. Temperatures should finish the weekend near 20
More fast moving and constantly changing weather for the beginning of next week. We can expect a bit of snow Sunday night and Monday from what appears to be a benign storm followed by some colder air for the middle of the week. This is when things start to look dicey. Though we have some arctic air in place and could find our way to score some big overrunning snows, ensembles have dealt us a blow by showing a strong push of milder temperatures late next week that might prove a challenge to completely ward off. February is a time where northern Vermont can play some of its most effective defense and I've seen dicey situations turn amazing during this part of the season. Much depends on how amplified the jet stream becomes in western North America. A well organized deep amplification featuring deep snowfall across the southern Rocky Mountains can result in a thaw across Vermont in any part of the winter, but if the amplification proves to be a bit more broken up and less organized, the northward push of milder air in eastern North American can run out of gas.
There are encouraging signs subsequent to the thorny questions revolving around Feb 7. One of the visible features in the simulated jet stream is a ridge across Alaska extending into the Arctic and polar air should never become too far removed and we can expect a return following whatever results we get at the end of next week. The EPO continues to show a willingness to cooperate and has been an important ally all winter. The arctic air retreat this week and potential trouble late next week is more a result of PNA issues and loss of AO support. The latter appears to want to come around as we move deeper into February.
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