Every winter seems to have a different personality and this one is strikingly different than the last few. Last year had a mild and cloudy personality and this year could not be more different. This January could very well finish 8 degrees colder or more than January 2024 while featuring a doubling of bluebird days. So far the big storm has been elusive, but we've had a dry January and when I say that, I mean no rain. We saw some mixed precipitation with the wet snow on New Year's Day and its been snow and cold ever since with nickle and dime snows. This is the way the month is poised to finish and one has to be excited about some of the model simulations released late Friday for the mid-week clipper event.
Sunshine through about early afternoon means most of the ski day is bluebird on Saturday. It's still chilly with temperatures rising only to about 20 degrees, but winds remain light helping the comfort level. Sunday is cloudier, windier, temperatures will be up a few degrees and we should see a bit of light snow. The westerly winds means the best accumulations are in the Stowe to Jay Peak corridor while MRG and Sugarbush get more of a 1-3 inch snow . Sunday's snowfall is the first in a series of clipper events that will break the recent dry stretch of dry weather caused by the recent intrusion of arctic cold.
There's a lot happening next week and will be hard to digest it all in one reading. Arctic air is undergoing a partial retreat and a fast jet stream is sending a lot of disturbances our way. Monday will start tranquil and then the wind is expected to pick up, enough perhaps to bring temperatures up above the freezing mark in valley locations. Clouds will increase and we should see a bit of snow from a clipper centered well to our north. Things could change but the snow appears most likely to fall early Tuesday and be mechanically induced which means its mostly associated with the front expected to bring a resurgent area of arctic cold to the region. The Tuesday ski day should have some fresh snow but only a minimal 1-4 inch amount.
Wednesday is much more interesting. This clipper appears significantly more energetic at jet stream level and may receive some Atlantic Ocean help when its impact is felt in northern Vermont. I want to be careful here because models have moved the best area of snow both north and south at varying times and I am not totally convinced a final answer has been reached. A 6-12 inch cold snow seems to be a very viable answer, most of which would fall during the ski day Wednesday. A direct shot of bitterly cold arctic air is likely to hit interior New England in the wake of whatever snow falls Wednesday. It will be temporary but will make Thursday windy with temperatures close to zero on the mountain. Friday should see a moderation in temperatures after a cold start and should feature less wind.
A few model simulations are suggesting a threat of milder temperatures during the first week of February and potentially as early as Sunday Feb 2. I am going to remain skeptical of any multi-day torch across southern New England even if its advertised on long range models. I certainly expect dramatically milder weather across the Ohio Valley and deep south which has just experienced the coldest month in over a decade in some instances. The negative EPO which is again expected to reemerge in early February should help counteract the loss of AO support and make for what I think could be an interesting period of weather. Traditionally, the battle of mild air across the south and arctic air in southern Canada can make it stormy in New England and there are some indications on the longer range ensembles. We will see how it evolves.
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