The west to southwest wind is one that typically blows strong and warm even in northern Vermont. Fortunately, the prevailing airmass is an arctic in origin and temperatures on the mountain are the warmest version of sub-freezing and nothing more. We had round one of this Sunday with another round coming Monday. A cold front extending south from a clipper system will bring our first period of snow for the last week of January. It starts within a few hours of dawn Tuesday, ends within a few hours after dawn and should bring 2-4 inches of snow to the mountains.
The early Tuesday snow will mark the reemergence of colder air that is expected to remain in place through ar least February 1st. More on that in a bit. Until then there is a lot happening thanks to a fast flowing jet stream. A more dynamic looking clipper is expected to approach as advertised and we look to be in a decent spot for a round of cold snow during the ski day Wednesday. The snow should actually begin before the ski day but persist through much of it and accumulate 5-10 inches. Southern Vermont does appear to be slightly better than us for the heaviest snow though not by much. Regardless, I never complain about a good cold snow and this one will occur with temperatures near 10 degrees. Following the snow, we get a brief but direct shot of bitterly cold air. Be prepared for a ski day Thursday with some wind and temperatures near zero before temperatures moderate Friday,.
The pattern is certainly shifting as February arrives and should result in drastically different weather conditions for much of eastern North America. Keep in mind that for several regions in the southern US, the recent month of January has been the coldest in 15 years or more. Across interior New England, I am not so convinced that the changes, though less wintry in many areas, are less wintry for us. The EPO, after all brief positive interlude this week, is expected to tack its way back up not negative territory and help provide some resistance against any full scale continental scouring of cold, which we are not expecting to see. Instead we should expect to a major part of the action with storminess that should take good aim at us and even if the coldest air is focused on the western part of the continent. Lots of specifies to unpack so I won’t open the suitcase too much in this update. I couldn’t even if I tried though I can say that our next chance for significant weather is Sunday Feb 2 and there should be more thereafter. The risk of a material thaw is elevated in that first full week fo February though I don't consider it likely yet.
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