Tuesday, January 21st featured a historic day of winter weather for potions of the deep south. The corridor from Houston to the Louisiana bayou (New Orleans included) and all the way to the Florida panhandle saw a significant snowfall. It wasn't just a wet snowfall on grass in some instances either, powder snow fell on Bourbon Street and temperature fell to the single numbers in places like Gulfport, MS and Lake Charles, LA. It's not been a year where storminess in the southern plains or Gulf Coast region comes northeast and amounts to much in New England. On the flip side, the clipper system has been revived and is alive and will be the story as far as new snowfall is concerned over the coming week to 10 days. I don't think this relationship is accidental either. With storminess in the mid latitude and southern portion of the jet stream more subdued, it allows clipper systems to be more robust and deliver more effectively for northern Vermont.
A succession of bluebird days has accompanied the cold weather in recent days and we might be able to squeeze a few hours of sun out of Thursday before clouds increase. This first clipper appears to be falling apart upon its arrival and the combination of clouds and flurries appears to be the likely end result Thursday night into Friday. After another sub-zero morning, temperatures are expected to moderate, climbing into the teens Thursday and Friday. Sunshine is expected to then return for Saturday before our first chance for some accumulating snow comes Sunday (it would be light). The bigger story for the weekend is the comfort level. Saturday morning will be cold but sunshine and minimal wind will make the 20 degree afternoon feel nice. Sunday will feature a bit more wind and some light snow but temperatures are expected to climb into the 20's.
My hopes for a big storm early next week appear dashed. Again, not been a good year to bet on anything coming out of the southern stream and I am no longer doing that for the last Monday or Tuesday of January. That said, the clipper train is robust and should deliver on multiple occasions. The first dose of snow comes after a windy Monday. Thankfully, its just stale arctic air and this will prevent a snow scouring as temperatures only reach 30 under some clouds. The snow would fall Monday night into early Tuesday and would amount to a light accumulation. A better looking clipper system with heavier snowfall amounts is then possible during the middle of the week. Pretty much all the model simulations are indicating a decent swath of snow from this but disagreement remains as to where it happens.
The longer range has us looking at the first full week of February and its the same type of theme to what was discussed a few days ago. We see some jet tightening in the Pacific but conditions then stabilize, perhaps even neutralize by the first of the month. The jet stream structure consists of a ridge over the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and this teleconnects more with cold across western North America. It does not force arctic air into deep retreat however and we are expecting a decent amount to linger over southern Canada, making occasional New England intrusions. It helps to have a few feedbacks working in our favor now with some ice now on the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay finally frozen. Big warmup expected for the southeast, but New England is in the of fire for storms if one does materialize.
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