Cold side of an intense temperature boundary produces a snowy Saturday forecast !

 March finally has a chance to make a bit of noise in the 9th inning and it comes as part of a crazy weather setup over New England. By midday on Saturday, New England will be divided by one of the sharpest temperature gradients that one could possibly see in our region. Parts of northern Vermont and certainly northern Maine will see temperatures stuck in the 20's while portions of Connecticut reach the middle 70's. Close to 50 degrees. It's a pretty good bet that some weather will emerge from that kind of setup and we certainly have some to discuss. We haven't yet reached a total certainty on the outcome, but we are getting close and it looks pretty good for snow if you continue to be a fan of that. If you're not a fan of snow so late in the season, there is plenty of non snow in the forecast thereafter as the pattern in the first half of April appears to feature a good bit of everything including mild weather. 

Don't want to forget about the dusting to an inch of snow that we can expect by Friday morning on the mountain. It won't be much, though its part of an important feature since the weak cold front responsible will begin to allow cold early spring arctic air to build across northern New England. The airmass will actually strengthen its grip Friday night and allow temperatures to drop into the 20's even as clouds thicken and snow begins falling by morning. If model simulations are accurate, we can expect a few inches by first tracks time Saturday and if the Euro is telling a true story, the Mad River Glen to Stowe corridor will be in the best zone for heavy snowfall throughout the day and into Saturday evening. What could go wrong ? Plenty. Models aren't in total agreement on this zone of heaviest snowfall and even the Euro has sleet and ice awfully close to us. I would prefer to look later versions of the high resolution data, but some of the available stuff has us mixing with sleet and freezing rain Saturday. All that said, we sit in a good spot and its a pretty narrow zone of "good". 100 miles north and you'll exit the heaviest precip and 200 miles south and it might be 72 degrees with the sun out. Our best case scenario on snow would be close to a foot and I wouldn't bet on that outcome yet though its a reasonable chance (20-30 percent) while 5-10 inches most likely. Less than 5 inches still occupies a decent chunk of the outcome spectrum (maybe another 20-30 percent).

Saturday's winter weather event comes from a weak wave of low pressure and the precipitation is mostly result of that sharp temperature gradient. The main area of low pressure actually comes at us Monday and though cold will put up a decent fight, the track of this system is too far north to support any additional snow. Models continue to be at odds over the actual track and that will impact temperatures some but not precipitation which should be rain in either case. Intense arctic cold will envelop the region by Tuesday and may be accompanied by a bit of snow upon its arrival before we get a decent period of sun from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. More weather is expected to come at us late in the week. The GFS is showing a winter storm while other models depict a much milder scenario. Seems like a mismatch for now. Beyond the later part of next week, ensembles show a bit of milder air and then a move toward cooler weather again. Stay tuned to threads updates for further details on Saturday's winter storm and I'll have at least one more regular update next week detailing any additional winter weather.

Instability snow for later Wednesday and a precipitation battle for the weekend

As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison. 

This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday. 

I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April  and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.

Colder weather and snowfall is expected over the next week though there aren't indications of a "big event" as of now

We've managed to make it out of our 2-week long warm stretch and are still alive and kicking with lots of thin cover. On Thursday, much of the New England coastline was socked-in with clouds and drizzle while Vermont ski country snuck another day of warm sunshine in. We have colder weather awaiting for the rest of the month and its simply a question of whether this pattern can produce a big storm or some deep snow. I'll take it anyway I can get it as we are 6 weeks from May and there is plenty of time for more warm weather to settle in then. 

Some rain Thursday is still expected to change to a bit of snow across the high country as a new area of low pressure slowly gathers some strength and passes over Cape Cod. The snow will persist for a few hours and accumulations in the high elevations will be in the 2-5 inch range by daybreak. Valley areas are only likely to see 1-2. Sunshine returns and dominates the skies for much of the ski day Friday. Winds will start out a bit blustery and diminish somewhat by the end of the day allowing temperatures to fall back below the freezing mark Friday night. Looks like we can sneak another semi spring-like day in on Saturday. The near 50-degree temps will be confined to the valley while readings on much of the mountain should be in the lower 40's. Much of Saturday, like Friday, will feature sunshine and then clouds will increase later in the day. 

A decent little impulse, bringing a stronger dose of early spring chill will also bring a dose of snowfall Saturday evening. Though only a temporary window, the setup looks excellent for some snowfall that should get a boost from what is now a more open Lake Champlain. It was the closest since 2019, but the lake never did freeze over thanks to the stronger than expected mild surge we got in later February and the return of milder weather in March. It's only a few hours, but our mountains should get some snow showers and squalls capable of delivering 3-6 inches ahead of a mostly sub-freezing, gusty and wintry Sunday that will feature the return of more sunshine and good visibility. 

Sunday's cold is well-timed ahead of an approaching storm system for Monday and we should be able to procure some snow out of this system, though models are not indicating the storm I had hoped would materialize. It's been the story of the year, whether it be a clipper or some other type of system. Transferring enough energy to the northeast coast to produce a more consolidated nor'easter has been a real struggle. I am sure there is a reason behind it also and in some ways it's helped revive our results from clipper type events this winter while coastal areas have really struggled with total snowfall. In this case, a matured cyclone traveling into the eastern Great Lakes will never make a complete coastal transfer, at least according to current simulations, and though some snowfall is expected, we aren't in a healthy conveyor of moisture for an extended period of time. Unless this changes, I would keep snowfall expectations below the 6-inch threshold. Cold weather is still expected as this is all happening and there should be an additional opportunity for snow showers either later Monday or Tuesday. There are also other opportunities for snow in this cold weather window. Models are hinting that a midweek system will blossom along the coast that could bring some snow. Closer to the last weekend in March, some warm advection snowfall is also possible ahead of what should be another push of colder weather to finish out the month. 

The teleconnection indices have neutralized for the very early part of April and there isn't a strong signal for a anomalous temperatures in either direction relative to normal. There are some indications that a cold pool of air could situate itself in eastern Canada and provide interior New England with more winter weather even as the mid-Atlantic and southern United States experience more warm temperatures.

Rain turns to accumulating snow Thursday night and watching a potentially bigger storm early next week

At least we managed some outstanding corn-days ahead of the rain Sunday night. It was the 2nd in a series of rain events associated by this +EPO driven weather pattern. There's a a third event that will start as some rain and then the news gets better, at least if you remain a fan of seeing more winter weather after St Patrick's Day. 

The weather this Tuesday and Wednesday can easily be compared to what we saw this past Friday and Saturday and in the same order. Sub-freezing temperatures in the early morning will be quickly erased by strong doses of March sunshine. Temperatures on Tuesday will be up close to 50 at the base and a bit cooler well up on the mountain followed by readings near 60 at the base Wednesday. Winds should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty. 

We can expect another mild day Thursday though clouds will be on the increase and this alone is expected to keep temperatures a little cooler in spite of a milder morning. Precipitation is expected to hold off until evening and yet again, we are expected to see rain at least at the start. I am very encouraged by recent data from the Euro, which is showing a new area of low pressure near the Connecticut coast quickly becoming the dominant part of this weather feature. If this happens as forecast, we should see rain turn to some significant snow Thursday night and accumulate several inches by Friday morning. This is an excellent way to greet what we expect to be a new weather pattern featuring a much friendlier jet stream in the Pacific. I'll have more confidence in an accumulation prediction in a day or two, but my early call right now would be 4-8 by the start of the ski day Friday. 

We should see clouds and snow showers break for some sunshine later Friday and most of the mountain should stay sub-freezing while valley areas creep above freezing by a few degrees. Saturday appears to be a more typical March day with chilly temperatures in the morning giving way to near 40-degree afternoon warmth. A stronger dose of late March arctic chill is expected to bring temperatures below normal for Sunday out ahead of what could be a very interesting few days. 

I think this friendlier early spring weather pattern should persist into at least early April and the best end result of it all could come early next week. The euro ensembles are showing a strong storm signal with a fresh supply of cold air in place. Good support mechanisms in the jet stream both up and downstream and I think its just a question of what kind of storm we can churn up, specifically the intensity and evolution. By my count, we remain under 10 inches of snow for the month of March and this is kind of storm that could triple that very easily so its worth watching in the Monday, March 24th to Wednesday March 26th time frame.

Terrific early spring weather Friday into Saturday before hostile Pacific jet stream brings rain Sunday night

 It's not just an effort to focus on the positive, there's some legitimate good news out there. Though we remain enveloped in a weather pattern dominated by a very hostile jet stream in the Pacific Ocean, it can produce some good corn horn days and it also looks like it will subside just after the spring equinox, potentially opening the door for an encore of early spring winter weather late this month. 

Friday looks simply fantastic. I had been concerned about clouds, and it now looks very sunny with sub-freezing morning temperatures giving way to lots of 50-degree readings. The lighter winds and lower dewpoints make it the kind of spring-like warmth that doesn't produce a ton of melt off. Saturday appears to be a warmer version of Friday with near 60-degree readings in low lying areas, 50's well up on the mountain along with slightly higher southerly winds. The rain is likely to hold off for most of the ski day on Sunday which is also good news. Still, the approaching storm on Sunday is a problem child. The storm track, which is still expected to be deep into remote Quebec, allows southerly flow to bring both mild temperatures and eventually the mild 40-plus dewpoints into Vermont. When combined with the stronger winds, the nearly inch of rain that we are expecting Sunday night will certainly melt a considerably amount of snow and cause some localized flooding. Check with NWS BTV for specific intel on flood risks if that is a concern for you. Rain is over Monday morning and a cold front will bring temperatures lower, but mild weather is expected to generally continue through the middle of next week. 

A positive EPO, indicative, of an angry Pacific Jet has been with us now for most of March and is expected to continue through most of next week. Unfortunately, this means more trouble for an incoming storm in the Wednesday to Thursday (March 19th-20th) time frame. This storm won't track as far north as its predecessor and the airmass behind this system appears cold enough to allow for some potential snowfall on the back end. I am more encouraged beyond this aforementioned storm since there are clear indications that we cam tame this beast in the Pacific, get the EPO back into negative territory and even set up some downstream blocking to our northeast. It's difficult to make promises or setting expectations too high late in March, but its worth keeping an eye on the last 10 days of March.

Happy corn-horn day Tuesday with some sunshine, the mild weather this weekend will feature much more cloudiness

Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet. 

The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England. 

This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state. 

The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.

More concerns in the outlook, but winter is back for the weekend and a good corn horn day is on the way for Tuesday

Can't say I was especially enamored with model simulations and what they were showing over the next two weeks. I'll discuss why in a bit. In the meantime there is some wintry weather worth discussing for the weekend before we get into the mode of choppier weather conditions 

The snowfall Thursday night did not materialize as I had hoped. Jay Peak got about what I had expected for Mad River Glen and for them it was a bit of an under-performance. Stability parameters Friday night into Saturday are supportive for some snow and glancing at radar, one can see an area of snow showers and squalls trying to drift north. Not all of the short range models are convinced of a elevation sensitive accumulation Friday night, but those same models are not doing a good job of depicting the area of snow showers Friday afternoon so I am going to assume we can score a small accumulation before the ski day Saturday. The snow showers would then lighten as Saturday progresses and clouds may even give way to a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low 20's accompanied by blustery winds. These winds will lessen just a little for Sunday when we should see a mix of clouds and sunshine and afternoon temperatures closer to 30. 

There is a disturbing warming trend in the outlook yet it doesn't apply to the March 10-14 day period, this comes later. In this stretch, the mild surge is now a one day feature and it could be preceded by period of light snow Monday morning. Most of Monday should consist of clouds, lighter winds and temperatures in the 30's. Tuesday is the torch where temperatures, well up on the mountain ,get well into the 50's and this should be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which will eat away at the snowpack, especially across valley areas. This appears to be an exceptional corn horn day given the temperatures and the expectations for sunshine. It won't last however as arctic air is expected to return for Wednesday sending temperatures back below the freezing mark . Models don't entirely agree on specifics, yet their have been hints, most notably on the reliable Euro model of a decent overrunning setup for some snowfall on Thursday March 13th. Aside from that potential, the Ides of March magic seems to be alluding us right now. 

The outlook for the middle weekend in March or the 15th and 16th appears to be the most concerning. For much of this winter season, thanks largely to a tamed jet stream in the Pacific, we've avoided these overly fueled, early amplified Midwest storms. We suffered through rain on March 5th and appear to have another ominous situation  around March 16th when a deep zone of southerly flow is indicated to drive mild air well into Quebec. There's more than a week between this update and the potential situation just discussed which means there's some time for expectations to evolve and they often do. We certainly need this storm to come out of the Rocky Mountains in a less amplified state than currently indicated and this might allow some of the colder air to our north to become a more significant factor. As it stands now, it appears to be a threatening wind and rain event, perhaps more damaging than what we saw a few days ago. 

Colder air would arrive behind this system, though the pattern doesn't appear overwhelmingly cold and resembles a more typical late March set up. The Pacific has suddenly gotten hostile in March and its unfortunately been timed with a lack of blocking in the jet stream. Cold arctic is expected to remain in Canada, remaining at least somewhat in close proximity, but we are short on mechanisms to bring that cold southward or hold it in place which is why the outlook has moved in this choppier direction.

Outlook continues to inch in the cooler direction for the rest of the month

Rain never fails to be a big downer during the ski season, but the outlook going forward continues to inch in a cooler direction and models are starting to show opportunities for significant snowfall at varying times. The National Weather Service has not opted to issue Flood Warnings which is encouraging and they project ice jams to be isolated. There will be melt off and rivers and streams are expected to rise yet with rainfall totals likely to stay less than an inch and temperatures indicated to stay below 50, it will help limit the flood risk. Across low lying areas, the melting will  continue through Thursday, another mild day with some occasional light rain and temperatures holding in the 40's. We will see high cooler temperatures across higher elevation areas as Thursday progresses and snow showers will develop Thursday night. Temperatures have trended colder for Thursday night and Friday and the snow, at least across the high country, looks powdery with readings falling into the 20's. Willing to upgrade snowfall expectations to the 2-5 inch range by the ski day Friday, a wintry day with readings holding in the 20's and a stiff west to northwest wind. 

Some flurries and light snow showers are expected both Friday and Saturday and with that comes a dusting of snow. Aside from that, the weekend is seasonable with a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and some intervals of sunshine. The blustery conditions continue into Saturday and then winds are expected to abate somewhat for Sunday. 

Seasonable March weather is expected to linger into Monday and then we still have this mild period threatening us in the March 11-14 period. I have to say however, the mild push northward is starting to look tenuous in northern New England and arctic air is starting to show its face on the outskirts of this weather picture. At the moment, the colder air is indicated to impact the Quebec weather situation more than ours, but the way things are trending, I have a feeling we are going to more shifting and a more abbreviated warm stretch next week. A storm is indicated for late next week and if enough arctic air could get involved, it would not at all be unreasonable to see some snow enter the forecast picture. For now, I think its reasonable to expect one spring-like day with the milder weather focused more on areas farther south. The storm later in the week should come to fruition in some form, but the outcome could include a wide range of scenarios. 

The longer range continues to inch cooler and snowfall opportunities are indicated on several models though we've had models show a mixed bag of weather also. Teleconnection indices have neutralized, but they aren't screaming cold yet; instead, ensembles are showing just a stormy pattern with sporadic intrusions of arctic air.

Weather conditions to take a not so friendly roller coaster ride this week

The burst of March cold air came at us with one big uppercut and sometimes when that happens, the punch is wasted and weather conditions prove to be very changeable. Such is the case with this week which started with temperatures near -10 Monday morning and will undergo a roller coaster ride over the next few days. 

The bad outcome we expect with the upcoming storm is a result of bad timing and circumstances which result in what will be a cyclone that matures too early and tracks way too far north. I've seen many storms have a similar fate in the early winter months and certainly less in the later winter months though it certainly happens. Clear skies early Tuesday morning will allow temperatures to start in the single numbers but then quickly rise even as clouds increase throughout the day as southerly flow begins to establish itself over the region. The rain stays away Tuesday and Tuesday night though many areas will see above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon and not much of a drop off during the ensuing overnight. The rain arrives early Wednesday. Sections of the upper mountain have yet to see plain rain in 2025 and the streak will officially end with the wet weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30's up high and 40's in the valley and just under an inch of rain is currently being indicated. Expect some flood concerns and some additional ice jam concerns on certain rivers and this is another excellent opportunity to point folks toward the National Weather Service as they are only organization equipped to provide detailed information in events such as this one. I might also add that my old friend Bob Hart, who teaches at Florida State, has provided free, illustrated model cross sections to the public domain and never asked for a dime. He like many of us has not been happy with the recent firings and has pulled the plug on his operation which has been up and running for 30 years. You can see his message here if you like Bob's Cool Weather Site .  Perhaps I've gotten too spoiled or old, but I've relied very heavily on this website during many weather situations here and it certainly hurts not having it. Anyway, if we can keep the rain at less than in inch, keep temperatures below 50 and can keep the wind down, the flooding won't be as severe as what we saw a few Decembers ago. I feel confident on the first  two conditions and less so about the third. At least in the exposed summits and high elevation areas, we should expect some high winds Wednesday night. 

Conditions should dry out Thursday in valley areas while lighter rain showers become snow showers across the high country. Temperatures will return to the freezing mark up high, but remain in the 40's below 1,500 feet. Accumulating is likely Thursday night into early Friday especially in the Stowe to Jay corridor and for us to a lesser extent. Subject to a later revision, I would expect 1-3 inches with most of it falling before the ski day Friday 

Temperatures are expected to return to more seasonable levels this upcoming weekend. The weather remains somewhat of a question and as much as I wish for one answer we are likely going to get another. The GFS hammers the northeast with a crippling snowstorm and almost everyone would get impacted and we would get a round of epic conditions before another run of mild weather. There is absolutely no support for such an outcome on the Euro Ensembles and likewise from the Canadian or its ensemble members. Given that, don't wishcast yourself toward a disappointment. The chances aren't zero, but not higher than 10 percent. 

The longer range outlook has trended somewhat cooler though I would be hesitant to call it cold. Before that, the period between March 11-14 continues to look very mild and could feature a multi-day stretch of spring-like weather before the cooler and somewhat stormier regime that I alluded to takes over. 

Another shout out to Sugarbush snow reporter Lucy Welch for speaking truth to power. I don't know her personally, but if she wants to write about snow on my blog she's welcome to do it.