If your a fan of colder weather, please take a moment and enjoy the update you are about to receive. I took more than a few moments myself to look back at some of the colder multi-day periods I can remember in Vermont just to see if we might be able to compete with some of those and we might. We just celebrated the 30 year anniversary of the blizzard of '96, a storm that missed Vermont entirely. In spite of that, we had deep snow that December into early January and became the main target for the cold air that supported that east coast blizzard. For almost a week, temperatures across the northern Vermont high country stayed below zero. We had a similar long duration cold wave hit us late in 2017 right after Christmas. It was the only recent Christmas holiday going back 20 years without a thaw and the skiing on Christmas was fantastic. Then we got about 5-6 consecutive days of sub-zero weather on the mountain to carry us into early 2018. We've actually had more 1-2 day cold waves that have hit us, even in some of the recent warmer years so to really stand out as something memorable, we will have to stay in the deep freeze for 3 or more days. I have not forgotten February 2015 also which was cold that sustained itself for over a month. Though, it looks a little different than the 2015 weather, the cold will have some lasting power.
MLK holiday was also quite chilly but this is not the type of intense cold I am talking about. We get a tease on Tuesday (Jan 20th), yet the airmass in question will have a chance to modify after going over the relative warmth of the unfrozen Great Lakes and temperatures are likely to stay in the single numbers (the positive side). Expect westerly winds to be gusty with flurries and snow showers, much like the weather saw on the mountain last Friday only this time, we aren't expecting much in the way of snowfall. Maybe around an inch Monday night with more in the Stowe to Jay corridor. Sunshine and below zero temperatures will start us off on Wednesday and then clouds will envelop the state and light snow will develop very late in the ski day. This is a respectable BC clipper system and a cold pattern overall and somehow we end up in the drier and warmer quadrant of what is a moisture-starved system anyway. Still, we are still capable of scoring 2-4 inches Wednesday night into the day Thursday. Temperatures will also moderate in that period rising to about 20 on Wednesday afternoon, warming into the mid 20's Wednesday night and then holding just below 30 most of Thursday. Enjoy that because the deep freeze arrives Friday.
Unfortunately, these types of polar jet dominated situations limit snowfall. They have the propensity to stabilize the lower troposphere while pushing the storm track southward. I am operating under the assumption that both are likely beginning this weekend. Still, we have the favorable wind direction and an unfrozen Lake Champlain and this might be enough for some wind driven light snow showers Friday. The big story is the wind chill and increasing cold throughout that day. It's one of those situations where the high temperature will be set at midnight, a meaningless statistic that doesn't reflect the weather during the ensuing day, temperatures near 10 at sunrise and then likely below zero by sunset. 20-30 mph winds will make that feel considerably colder. We should then be able to keep readings below zero all day Saturday with similar wind speeds. Maybe the Champlain Valley can inch above zero while readings on the mountain will be closer to 10 below. A possible Mid-Atlantic snowstorm is brewing for Sunday while Vermont should stay dry and cold. Temperatures might reach zero on the mountain and the bigger relief should come in the form of relaxing wind speeds.
Light snow is possible on Monday (Jan 26th) as the cold is reinforced, but I think snow accumulations are minimal again. The cold weather will continue to be the story with temperatures likely staying below 10 through Wednesday (Jan 28). After a respite from the wind on Sunday into Monday, more wind can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles show a strong signal for an east coast snowstorm later next week. Though its not a pattern that would support such a storm venturing too far northward and impacting Vermont, the pattern does start to relax as the week progresses and gives us at least a chance.
I also continue to see some discussion about a pattern flip to warmer weather in February and I would disagree with those assertions. The intensity of arctic cold will relent considerably as the month flips to February and the nature of the jet stream in the Pacific is certainly expected to shift to a stormier one. With that said, there's continued to support for winter weather across the northeast quadrant of the US and much of SE Canada.
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