Bombs Away !! Big storm offshore is strong enough to hold my attention, but too far east to produce any Vermont snowfall this weekend

Bombs away

Well, I guess I'm back in love again

Well, hey now, and around we go

This will bring me ruin 

Though I suppose it's pleasing 

I've changed the eyes I gaze in 

Still, she's just another girl

And I'll need more than a trade in 

Guess I'll have to change the world  

 

 This Bobby tune, and I really do love the guy, is the song that always comes to mind when a bombing nor'easter enters into our weather discussion. I think the song is decent overall, having grown on me in recent years after a slow start. One of Weir's best and certainly overlooked song constructions might be the song Two Djinn which came to being in his post-Jerry band Rat Dog. Fantastic album overall actually called Evening Moods and it's out of print so if anyone has a copy I'll take it. 

 

Back to the bombing nor'easter, it is absolutely mesmerizing to look at on a weather map yet it remains a miss for Vermont and most of New England. The storm will take shape near Cape Hatteras early on Saturday and get a full detonation over the Atlantic, deepening to at least 968 mb (hurricane level strength, though less consolidated) while passing about 200 miles or so east of Cape Cod. This may or may not be close enough to spread some blizzard conditions to the Cape and Islands. It is certainly not close enough to bring snow to the remainder of New England barring a major last minute shift. Storms of this magnitude have the tendency to suck all the energy out of a room, unless you're in the energy. This means a dry weekend is coming our way which will include some sunshine and excellent visibility. Temps will start out at 10 below Saturday and then recover to almost 10 degrees. Sunday's temperatures may warm a few degrees but the proximity of the aforementioned storm will turn up the volume on wind speed so plan for that. 

 

We remain chilly for the first full week of February with temperatures on a few afternoons reaching the 20-degree mark. Except for flurries and lighter snow showers, most of the period will be dry since the unsettled part of the jet stream is expected to stay situated south of us. We see changes in this regime very late in the week and could have an interesting weather situation to deal with in the Friday, February 6th to Saturday, February 7th time frame. A lesser surge of arctic air to go along with a robust looking clipper system will combine to create another storm opportunity for us. The weekend in question is also likely to be windy and cold again whether we get some significant snow or miss most of it. 

 

The 2nd full week of February still has a nice look to it with the jet stream blocking through the Davis Strait offering us some protection against any potential thaw and creating an environment conducive for east coast storms. We lose a bit of life toward the middle of the month from the negative EPO though the index remains favorable throughout the period. We have it going right now and one of the most important aspects to keeping this train moving is thaw avoidance and this current outlook is cooperating in that regard.