Let's add some signifcant snowfall to this cold weather story !!

 The best magic trick I know would be tell you all that the bitterly cold weather we are bracing ourselves for is going to limit snowfall. Conventional wisdom only takes you so far however and inevitably the weather finds a way to produce some sort of unique outcome. This appears to be headed in that direction. While a powerful polar jet quite often does limit snowfall in January across northern Vermont by bringing both a stable boundary layer and suppressing the storm track, there's always an open door, especially along the east coast. 

We also have some lighter snowfall in the short term. Clipper system brings some Wednesday evening amounting to about 2-3 inches for the ski day Thursday. This was more or less in accordance with expectations. The snow shower setup during the day on Thursday appears very much improved. We don't have the benefit of the most favorable wind direction (this being northwest), but the atmospheric profile appears very unstable for January. Even with the west wind, we should be able to produce a few good bursts of snow on the mountain and some additional accumulations of 1-3 inches. The snow showers will in fact continue through half of Friday producing an additional light accumulation before the blast of arctic cold shuts it all down late Friday afternoon. Friday's arctic cold will come in hard and fast and temperatures will move lower very quickly, likely reaching subzero levels Friday evening. Until then however, the forecast is snowier and temperatures should reach the 20's on Thursday and may start closer to 15 early Friday before falling off the cliff late in the day. 

Bluebird weather for Saturday and bitterly cold with gusty northwest winds for most of the day. It's lining up to be the coldest actual day this decade. We had a day in early February 2023 which was 10 to 20 below for much of the ski day before temperatures warmed during the evening to about 10 above. This Saturday we can expect 10 to 15 below zero on the mountain during the ski day and no such warming Saturday evening. Readings could reach 20 below in a few valley locations Sunday morning before some morning sunshine pushes readings toward zero degrees during the afternoon. 

The big story though has evolved from simply just cold weather and now includes snow for many more places including Vermont. Yes, the northward shift is back and has arrived early enough for a happy Wednesday update.  The polar jet has arrived as advertised and many times it might just overpower the pattern and suppress all storms and yet the southeast ridge is still there and appears destined to poke it's nose up the east coast late this weekend before vanishing. It does so just as a piece of the polar vortex is driven out into the open Atlantic Ocean. We thus have an open door and multiple areas of low pressure, one in eastern Kentucky and another off the Virginia coast midday Sunday, sending cold moisture in our direction. It will be a sizable winter storm and a cold one for the entirety of the east coast, probably the coldest storm this decade. New York City will get a big accumulation of snow and probably some sleet as well while snow is could arrive in  Vermont (our part of Vermont) by midday Sunday. It's rather incredible and somewhat ironic, because we are situated pretty well for this. The coastal storm is expected to exit stage right by Monday leaving the remnants of the inland low pressure area and an associated area of moisture over the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains for Monday. It's early and there are models that keep much of the snowfall to our south still,but the trend is our friend right now. 10-20 inches or something like that is suddenly quite reasonable and this looked very dry just two days ago. 

It remains very cold in the wake of the Sunday/Monday snow, assuming that trend remains our friend. Though temperatures will be below zero on a few of those mornings next week, I do think the cold is set to peak in that late Friday to early Sunday time frame (this weekend). The cold next week will feature temperatures in the +5 to +15 range for most of the ski days and many of today days will have gusty winds. Models have been spinning up another storm late next week in response to an amplifying jet stream. Arctic patterns do favor coastal hits over inland hits, yet as this weekend is set to prove, you just never know. 

Arctic air is expected to weaken it's grip in early February for much of North America while likely remaining a factor for New England. That part of the forecast appears colder as well.